Using Correlative, Mechanistic and Hybrid Niche Models to Predict the Productivity and Impact of Global Climate Change on Maize Crop in Brazil

Ecological niche models (ENMs) can be used to investigate the shifts in geographical distributions and in productivity of cultivated species in future climatic scenarios. Such models can be classified in correlative, mechanistic or hybrid. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between productivity of Zea mays in Brazilian municipalities and crop suitability in current scenarios using the three different ENMs' types, as well as to predict the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Z. mays in Brazil The mechanistic model used was Plantgro, the correlative one was Maxent, and to hybridize them we added the mechanistic model output as another predictor in a second Maxent model. The correlative and hybrid models were very similar, while the mechanistic model presented very distinct results from the other two models. The correlative (maxent) model was the best surrogate of maize productivity. The correlative model indicated that in the future there will be little change in environmental suitability in relation to the current climate.