4.5 Article

A cholera model in a patchy environment with water and human movement

Journal

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES
Volume 246, Issue 1, Pages 105-112

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.08.003

Keywords

Cholera; Patch model; Water movement; Human movement; Global stability; Control strategy

Funding

  1. National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Mathematical Biosciences Institute [(DMS 0931642)]
  2. Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) [OCE-1115881]
  3. Mprime project Transmission Dynamics and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases: Modelling, Prediction and Control
  4. University of Central Florida through a start-up fund
  5. Directorate For Geosciences
  6. Division Of Ocean Sciences [1115881] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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A mathematical model for cholera is formulated that incorporates direct and indirect transmission, patch structure, and both water and human movement. The basic reproduction number 72.0 is defined and shown to give a sharp threshold that determines whether or not the disease dies out. Kirchhoff's Matrix Tree Theorem from graph theory is used to investigate the dependence of R-0 on the connectivity and movement of water, and to prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium when R-0 > 1. The type/target reproduction numbers are derived to measure the control strategies that are required to eradicate cholera from all patches. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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