Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Jiaxing Chen, Ying Liu, Jing Yue, Xi Duan, Ming Tang
Summary: The widespread dissemination of negative information on vaccines can hinder vaccination progress, but individual vaccination activities have a greater impact on epidemic spreading.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Ying Qing, Jiaqi Yang, Qiang Zhang, Yuanshen Zhu, Patricia Ruiz, Min Wu, Genming Zhao, Qi Zhao, Hong Liu, Hua Cai, Luxin Qin, Weiwei Zheng, Gengsheng He
Summary: Adapting existing Cd TK models based on exposure data from Chinese residents, this study developed a one-compartment TK model and a multi-compartment PBTK model that consider gender differences and individual variability in Cd kinetics. The validated models can serve as new quantitative assessment tools for the risk assessment of Cd in the Chinese population, with an improvement in RMSE and acceptable prediction on other Chinese datasets.
JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
(2021)
Article
Biology
Stefanie Winkelmann, Johannes Zonker, Christof Schutte, Natasa Djurdjevac Conrad
Summary: Agent-based models are useful for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics but come with high computational costs. Model reduction to a metapopulation model can improve efficiency while preserving key dynamical properties. The stochastic metapopulation model can be seen as a simplified projection of the underlying ABM through mathematical description.
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Nuno C. Martins, Jair Certorio, Richard J. La
Summary: We propose a system theoretic approach to select and stabilize the endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model, with the decisions of a population determining the transmission rate. The population's agents revise their choices out of a set of strategies that impact the transmission rate. We develop a dynamic payoff mechanism that guarantees steering the epidemic variables to the endemic equilibrium with the smallest infectious fraction, subject to cost constraints.
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Jiaxing Chen, Meiling Feng, Dawei Zhao, Chengyi Xia, Zhen Wang
Summary: Epidemiological models based on traditional networks have made important contributions to the analysis and control of malware, disease, and rumor propagation. However, higher-order networks are becoming more effective for modeling epidemic spread and characterizing group interactions. In this article, a composite effective degree Markov chain approach (CEDMA) is proposed to represent epidemic dynamics on higher-order networks. CEDMA accurately captures discontinuous phase transitions and bistability phenomena caused by higher-order interactions and can also predict critical points and phase transitions.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS MAN CYBERNETICS-SYSTEMS
(2023)
Article
Mathematics
Manuel L. Esquivel, Nadezhda P. Krasii, Gracinda R. Guerreiro
Summary: This study addresses the problem of finding a natural continuous time Markov type process in open populations using information provided by discrete time open Markov chains. Two main approaches are proposed: calibrating a continuous time Markov process using a discrete time transition matrix and directly extending discrete time theory to continuous time theory using semi-Markov processes and open Markov schemes.
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Kirti Jain, Vasudha Bhatnagar, Sadanand Prasad, Sharanjit Kaur
Summary: This paper presents an abstract model of fear, called Individual-based Fear Model (IBFM), to study the influence of human behavior on epidemic dynamics. The model distinguishes individuals by their fear-index and accommodates variations in innate fear levels among populations with cultural differences. By updating the fear levels in the population, the model can realistically simulate multiple epidemic waves observed in real-world epidemics.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NETWORK SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Sifat Afroj Moon, Faryad Darabi Sahneh, Caterina Scoglio
Summary: The paper introduces a group-based continuous-time Markov epidemic modeling framework, which can be used to study epidemic spreading on complex networks with smaller state space and less computational time, and it is crucial for understanding the dynamics of large-scale epidemic spread.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NETWORK SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Becky Tang, Sarah M. Roberts, James S. Clark, Alan E. Gelfand
Summary: Understanding community responses to climate change is crucial, but current models lack explicit inclusion of important biological mechanisms. This study extends a mechanistic model to incorporate both population dynamics and species redistribution, examining their relative contributions to the changing biomass of a community in the Gulf of Maine. The findings highlight the need to consider the dynamic nature of environmental and biological systems when quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Xuemei You, Man Zhang, Yinghong Ma
Summary: This paper introduces a coupled information-disease spreading model based on multiplex networks, considering individual emotions and investigating the interaction between positive and negative information diffusion, emotion accumulation, and disease spreading. The results indicate that individual emotions play a crucial role in the disease spreading process, with positive emotions inhibiting disease transmission and negative emotions facilitating it.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Management
Niklas Berger, Stefan Schulze-Schwering, Elisa Long, Stefan Spinler
Summary: Quality issues in supply networks can have negative impacts on suppliers and their downstream customers. In this study, we develop a novel modeling framework based on epidemiology to investigate how network structure affects the propagation of quality issues. The results show that the magnitude of a quality issue is strongly influenced by its origin node and the network archetype. Improving quality control at critical nodes and adjusting the network structure are effective strategies to mitigate the spread of quality issues.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Mathematics
Daniela Calvetti, Alexander P. Hoover, Johnie Rose, Erkki Somersalo
Summary: Understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 spread between connected communities is crucial for planning mitigation measures. A novel metapopulation network model is proposed and analyzed for this purpose, utilizing optimal transport theory to describe population redistribution due to traffic and SEIR compartment models to account for infection dynamics in individual communities. Model simulations reveal densely populated regions as potential amplifiers of infection for surrounding less densely populated areas, in line with observed infection patterns during the pandemic, and can be used to test various mitigation strategies.
Article
Engineering, Environmental
E. G. F. Rezende, G. H. D. Oliveira, P. T. Couto, M. Zaiat, R. Ribeiro
Summary: Models were developed to represent the selection of PHA-producing microorganisms in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) and the accumulation of PHA in a fed-batch reactor from sugarcane vinasse. Sensitivity analysis and optimization were conducted to understand the influence of parameters and operational conditions on PHA production. The results showed that higher CODt/Nitrogen ratios in the SBR favored the growth response rather than storage, shedding light on the impact of CODt/Nitrogen ratio on PHA accumulation.
JOURNAL OF WATER PROCESS ENGINEERING
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Eman Mostafa, Xuxiang Li, Mohammed Sadek
Summary: Quick population increase and the desire for urbanization are driving urban expansion on agricultural lands in Egypt. This study uses satellite images to analyze the trend of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC), predicts future LULCC using models, and assesses the impact of urbanization on land surface temperature. The findings provide insights for decision makers to develop sustainable land use strategies.
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Ziqiang Cheng, Jin Wang
Summary: This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on partial differential equations to study the spatial spread of infectious diseases, incorporating fluid dynamics theory. It utilizes numerical methods from computational fluid dynamics to investigate the model and applies it to simulate the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, resulting in highly accurate simulation results.
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Mathematics
Igor Sazonov, Dmitry Grebennikov, Mark Kelbert, Andreas Meyerhans, Gennady Bocharov
Article
Biophysics
Neeraj Kavan Chakshu, Igor Sazonov, Perumal Nithiarasu
Summary: This paper proposes a method to create a cardiovascular digital twin using inverse analysis and recurrent neural networks to calculate blood pressure waveforms in the cardiovascular system. The approach shows potential in detecting abdominal aortic aneurysm and assessing its severity.
BIOMECHANICS AND MODELING IN MECHANOBIOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Hamid Reza Tamaddon-Jahromi, Neeraj Kavan Chakshu, Igor Sazonov, Llion M. Evans, Hywel Thomas, Perumal Nithiarasu
COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING
(2020)
Article
Mathematics
Rostislav Savinkov, Dmitry Grebennikov, Darya Puchkova, Valery Chereshnev, Igor Sazonov, Gennady Bocharov
Article
Thermodynamics
HamidReza Tamaddon Jahromi, Samuel Rolland, Jason Jones, Alberto Coccarelli, Igor Sazonov, Chris Kershaw, Chedly Tizaoui, Peter Holliman, David Worsley, Hywel Thomas, Perumal Nithiarasu
Summary: A novel modelling approach is proposed to study ozone distribution and destruction in indoor spaces. The methodology was validated against experimental measurements and showed good agreement in predicting the time evolution of ozone concentration at different locations within the enclosed space. The study introduces a computational methodology for predicting ozone concentration levels during a disinfection process, with a parametric study evaluating the impact of system settings on ozone concentration variation over time.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NUMERICAL METHODS FOR HEAT & FLUID FLOW
(2022)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Alexey A. Chernov, Aleksandr A. Shemendyuk, Mark Y. Kelbert
Summary: This paper aims to determine the optimal insurance premium for healthcare in deterministic and stochastic SEIR models. Results show that the premium depends on migration rates, disease severity, and initial distribution of healthy and infected individuals. The study also compares the impact of different vaccination programs on insurance costs.
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF NATURAL PHENOMENA
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Ksenia Kasianova, Mark Kelbert, Pavel Mozgunov
Summary: The article discusses two main objectives in rare disease Phase II clinical trials, proposing response-adaptive designs as a means to achieve a balance between statistical power and number of patients responding to treatment. Novel designs based on information-theoretical criteria are suggested to adjust this balance.
COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS
(2021)
Article
Virology
Dmitry Grebennikov, Ekaterina Kholodareva, Igor Sazonov, Antonina Karsonova, Andreas Meyerhans, Gennady Bocharov
Summary: This study utilized mathematical and computational modelling to formulate a deterministic model of the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle, identifying the three most influential parameters affecting viral replication and providing data support for guiding the search for antiviral drug targets.
Article
Mathematics
Igor Sazonov, Dmitry Grebennikov, Andreas Meyerhans, Gennady Bocharov
Summary: A high-resolution mathematical model was proposed to quantify the contribution of stochastic effects to the variability of HIV life cycle kinetics, exploring statistical characteristics such as cell infection multiplicity, cooperative nature of viral replication, and variability in virus secretion. The study found that infecting each CD4(+) T cell with a fixed number of viruses leads to heterogeneity in infected cells, identifying bottleneck factors in virus production. Sensitivity analysis ranked model parameters with significant impact on viral progeny, highlighting potential therapeutical targets.
Article
Engineering, Biomedical
Neeraj Kavan Chakshu, Jason M. Carson, Igor Sazonov, Perumal Nithiarasu
Summary: FFR provides the functional relevance of coronary atheroma and has shown to reduce unnecessary stenting and improve health outcomes. Non-invasive cFFR is an emerging method that reduces invasive catheter measurements, but requires expertise and labor.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL METHODS IN BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Thermodynamics
Hamid Reza Tamaddon Jahromi, Igor Sazonov, Jason Jones, Alberto Coccarelli, Samuel Rolland, Neeraj Kavan Chakshu, Hywel Thomas, Perumal Nithiarasu
Summary: This paper presents a tool based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and machine learning (ML) to assess potential airborne microbial transmission in enclosed spaces. By using a gated recurrent units neural network (GRU-NN), the behavior of droplets expelled through breaths can be accurately predicted. The study demonstrates the accuracy of the developed ML model in predicting airborne particle movement in different ventilation conditions and source locations. This research contributes to the development of efficient tools for predicting virus airborne movement in indoor environments.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NUMERICAL METHODS FOR HEAT & FLUID FLOW
(2022)
Article
Virology
Igor Sazonov, Dmitry Grebennikov, Andreas Meyerhans, Gennady Bocharov
Summary: Mathematical modelling is important for understanding the infection process of SARS-CoV-2 in cells. This study transforms a deterministic model into a stochastic one and uses it to compute statistical characteristics of the virus's life cycle. The results show the strong inhibitory effects of type I IFN response on viral progeny.
Article
Virology
Igor Sazonov, Dmitry Grebennikov, Rostislav Savinkov, Arina Soboleva, Kirill Pavlishin, Andreas Meyerhans, Gennady Bocharov
Summary: A mathematical model of HIV-1 life cycle in CD4 T cells was developed, which accounts for the activation of IFN-I response and its suppression of viral replication. The model includes inhibition of viral replication by IFN-induced antiviral factors and their inactivation by viral proteins Vpu and Vif. Both deterministic and stochastic models were constructed to predict the efficiency of IFN-I-induced suppression in different initial conditions, and the heterogeneity of HIV-1 and IFN-I production was characterized statistically.
Proceedings Paper
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Sam Rolland, Hamid Tamaddon Jahromi, Jason Jones, Alberto Coccarelli, Igor Sazonov, Chris Kershaw, Chedly Tizaoui, Peter Holliman, David Worsley, Hywel Thomas, Perumal Nithiarasu
Summary: A modelling approach is proposed to study the distribution and destruction of ozone in indoor spaces. The study validates a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for ozone concentration and demonstrates the suitability of ozone circulation as a disinfection process. The research highlights the importance of a well-controlled ozone removal process.
PROGRESS IN INDUSTRIAL MATHEMATICS AT ECMI
(2022)
Article
Mathematics
M. Y. Kelbert, Yu M. Suhov
Summary: This article presents a number of upper and low bounds for the total variation distances between popular probability distributions, and provides specific estimates for Gaussian, Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions.
IZVESTIYA OF SARATOV UNIVERSITY MATHEMATICS MECHANICS INFORMATICS
(2022)
