Effects of nutrient loading on the trophic state of Lake Brunner

Lake Brunner, an oligotrophic monomictic lake on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, is under pressure from urban expansion and increased farming activity, which has led to concern for the effects on water quality in the lake. Epilimnetic nitrogen, phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations have increased since 1992, and Secchi depth decreased. This suggests an increased algal productivity caused by increased nutrient inputs, further supported by increased hypolimnetic oxygen depletion since 1992. These observations are likely to have resulted from enhancement of pasture drainage and effluent inputs from expanding dairy farms. The Vollenweider model predicted a mean phosphorus concentration in the lake close to that observed, from estimated catchment loading, suggesting that the Vollenweider model adequately estimated the retention of phosphorous. With the Vollenweider model the effects of potential future loading scenarios were explored. Modelling suggested that a 70% increase in phosphorus loading could turn the lake into a mesotrophic state. Trend analysis of total phosphorus suggests that, with present land uses in the catchment (intensive dairy farming) continuing to develop at the same rate using the same land management practises, this transition to a mesotrophic state will occur by 2040.