Optimal layout of additional facilities for minimization of domino effects based on worst-case scenarios

Accidents involving domino effects are more serious than other type of accidents. Although there have been studies on such accidents, it is still difficult to examine the actual factors and causes since the domino effect is influenced nonlinearly by factors involving flame, overpressure, and flying objects. We considered the case of adding new facilities to an existing system in a given site. The layout of new facilities suggests positions that minimize the domino effects, based on nonlinear optimization taking domino factors into account. We quantitatively calculated the domino risk of each facility through the concept of combined domino factors (flame, overpressure, and missile). Also, we identified variations of domino damage extent of the target system through comparison of the impacts of domino effect when additional facilities were installed. Simulated annealing was adopted for searching optimal positions. As a case study, we applied the proposed method to the case of adding DME storage tanks in the existing LPG charging facilities. The presented framework of the quantitative assessment of domino risk and safety standard for the layout of additional facilities would be useful for proper layout design for improved accident prevention.