Article
Economics
Sabine E. Grimm, Xavier Pouwels, Bram L. T. Ramaekers, Nicolien T. van Ravesteyn, Valerie D. V. Sankatsing, Janneke Grutters, Manuela A. Joore
Summary: Analyzing the barriers to the implementation of Value of Information (VOI) analysis and proposing corresponding actions and tools can be beneficial for health technology assessment organizations aiming to use VOI analysis in technology assessment and research prioritization. Further research should focus on the application and evaluation of the proposed actions in real assessment processes.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Shou-Li Li, Joseph Keller, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea
Summary: The management of biological invasions is hindered by biological and operational uncertainties. However, simultaneously addressing both sources of uncertainty can help optimize control decisions, leading to a reduction in population growth rate of invasive species.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
C. McPhail, H. R. Maier, S. Westra, L. van der Linden, J. H. Kwakkel
Summary: In order to assist decision making about environmental systems under deep uncertainty, researchers have introduced a generic guidance framework and software package to help identify the most robust decision alternatives. This tackles the difficulty of choosing between robustness metrics and scenarios, providing a consistent and easy-to-use approach to quantify system robustness and make robust decisions.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2021)
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Siravat Teerasoponpong, Apichat Sopadang
Summary: In recent years, changes in data-driven supply chain management have been driven by elevated business uncertainties and competition, with large-sized enterprises utilizing data for decision-making while SMEs struggle due to limited resources and knowledge. A proposed decision support system aims to assist SMEs in compiling and exploiting data, aiding decision-making under business ambiguities. The system uses a simulation-optimization approach incorporating artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce costs and improve inventory management policies, achieving significant cost reductions when implemented in a medium-sized food industry company.
ROBOTICS AND COMPUTER-INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
T. Hall, C. Scheidt, L. Wang, Z. Yin, T. Mukerji, J. Caers
Summary: Quantitative methods are essential for decision-making in subsurface resource exploration, but few methods incorporate the interaction of geological, operational, and financial conditions. This study uses value of information (VOI) to determine the optimal sequence and placement of exploration boreholes and demonstrates the changes in optimal placement and selection based on different drilling strategies.
NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Energy & Fuels
Susana M. G. Santos, Ana T. F. S. Gaspar, Denis J. Schiozer
Summary: This study proposes a decision framework to estimate the best approach to manage uncertainty at early stages of field development. By combining information, robustness, and flexibility, and automating the process with predefined uncertain scenarios and optimized production strategies, it aims to improve the effectiveness of oil field development.
JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Adam M. Finkel, George M. Gray
Summary: This article discusses four challenging issues in risk-based decision making, including the role of potential thresholds in dose-response functions, the lack of health reference values for many chemicals distorting risk management, model uncertainty as a challenge for risk characterization, and the untapped potential of value-of-information analysis in enhancing public health decision making. Further research is needed on these issues, but some solutions may already exist in the ideas proposed by John.
Review
Ecology
Johan Mansson, Louise Eriksson, Isla Hodgson, Johan Elmberg, Nils Bunnefeld, Rebecca Hessel, Maria Johansson, Niklas Liljeback, Lovisa Nilsson, Camilla Olsson, Tomas Part, Camilla Sandstrom, Ingunn Tombre, Steve M. Redpath
Summary: Adaptive management (AM) is difficult to implement due to obstacles related to the AM process, ecosystem properties, and governance systems. Overcoming these obstacles requires building capacities within the AM process, including adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. It is also important to build capacities in the legal and institutional frames to enable necessary flexibility in the governance system. In systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities becomes even more critical.
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
(2023)
Article
Environmental Studies
Anthony R. Harding, Mariia Belaia, David W. Keith
Summary: We use an integrated assessment model to estimate the value of reducing uncertainty about solar geoengineering (SG). The analysis shows that reducing uncertainty by one-third by 2030 has a value of around $4.5 trillion, with the majority of the benefits coming from reduced climate damages. Over-confidence and under-confidence about SG can both be costly problems. Our analysis demonstrates the risk-trade off around SG and emphasizes the importance of research to reduce uncertainty.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Pierre D. Glynn, Charles R. Rhodes, Scott J. Chiavacci, Jennifer F. Helgeson, Carl D. Shapiro, Crista L. Straub
Summary: The use of structured observations and data in decision making is important, as it helps in understanding the value of information and its impact on societal outcomes. This article focuses on how information, such as geospatial information, is valued and incorporated into decision making processes related to natural resources and hazards. It discusses the challenges and approaches to overcome them, emphasizing the importance of economic analyses and actionable information.
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Kristen M. Malone, Theron M. Terhune, Kathryn E. Sieving
Summary: Disruption of historic fire regimes has led to the expansion of hardwoods into pine savanna ecosystems in the southeastern United States. Management strategies that reduce mature mesophytic oaks in pine savanna may help restore understory vegetation and positively affect understory birds, but the impact on bobwhite survival and productivity remains inconclusive following hardwood reduction.
Article
Mathematics
Wenhua Lv, Linxiao Wei
Summary: This paper investigates a distributionally robust reinsurance problem that combines Glue Value-at-Risk and the expected value premium principle. The problem focuses on stop-loss reinsurance contracts with known mean and variance of the loss. The optimization problem is formulated as a minimax problem, where the inner problem involves maximizing over distributions with the same mean and variance. The paper provides analytical solutions and representations for the inner problem in different cases.
Article
Water Resources
Tohid Erfani, Julien J. Harou
Summary: Dealing with uncertainty in water resource planning is complex due to the potential social and environmental costs of insufficient infrastructure. Multistage stochastic optimisation offers a solution to this challenge, but can be difficult and expensive for real systems. The 'Decision-rule' formulation approximates the multistage problem by introducing a series of rules that are functions of uncertainty and system state, ultimately impacting adaptive water resources planning.
ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Georgina M. M. Sanchez, Mitchell J. J. Eaton, Ana M. M. Garcia, Jennifer Keisman, Kirsten Ullman, James Blackwell, Ross K. K. Meentemeyer
Summary: This study partnered with domain experts to codevelop a decision framework for prioritizing catchments for the development of mitigation projects. It also presented an interactive tool for assessing alternatives and tradeoff analysis. The decision framework is not limited to North Carolina but can be applied to similar restoration and resource allocation activities nationwide.
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Management
Anita Schoebel, Yue Zhou-Kangas
Summary: This paper discusses the comparison of sets of robust efficient solutions in uncertain multiobjective optimization problems, analyzing their outcomes and proposing the concept of lightly robust efficient solutions. It also introduces a measure to quantify the price of robustness of a single solution, along with proposing strategies to support decision makers in finding solutions to optimization problems under uncertainty. The results are illustrated with examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
(2021)