Journal
PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
Volume 94, Issue -, Pages 366-379Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2014.09.001
Keywords
Airborne dispersion; Ammonia; Disaster chain; Earthquake; Risk; Na-Tech
Categories
Funding
- National Key Technology R&D Program - Ministry of Science & Technology of China [2012BAJ24B04]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities - Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Education of China [2009SD-20]
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Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km x 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future. (C) 2014 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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