Journal
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
Volume 343, Issue -, Pages 120-126Publisher
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.11.024
Keywords
Epidemiology; Vector-borne disease; Frequency-dependent transmission; Star network; Basic reproductive number
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Funding
- Japanese government Monbukagakusho (MEXT) scholarship through the Japanese Embassy in Tanzania
- Centre for Promotion of Integrated Sciences (CPIS) of The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI)
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [24115008] Funding Source: KAKEN
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We develop a star-network of connections between a central city and peripheral villages and analyze the epidemic dynamics of a vector-borne disease as influenced by daily commuters. We obtain an analytical solution for the global basic reproductive number R-0 and investigate its dependence on key parameters for disease control. We find that in a star-network topology the central hub is not always the best place to focus disease intervention strategies. Disease control decisions are sensitive to the number of commuters from villages to the city as well as the relative densities of mosquitoes between villages and city. With more commuters it becomes important to focus on the surrounding villages. Commuting to the city paradoxically reduces the disease burden even when the bulk of infections are in the city because of the resulting diluting effects of transmissions with more commuters. This effect decreases with heterogeneity in host and vector population sizes in the villages due to the formation of peripheral epicenters of infection. We suggest that to ensure effective control of vector-borne diseases in star networks of villages and cities it is also important to focus on the commuters and where they come from. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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