The abuse of regression in the National Health Service allocation formulae: response to the Department of Health's 2007 'resource allocation research paper'

Weighted capitation formulae for the allocation of funds to England's regional health authorities go back decades. In 2006, a paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, criticized the formula that has been used, with little change, from 2003 to 2009. The Department of Health has responded tangentially in a report from a team of academics whose remit was to revise the formula for its continued use beyond 2009. The Series A critique is here renewed and strengthened by analysis of the role of some elementary statistical tools in the construction of the latest formula. The conclusion is that, if the force of the extended critique is accepted, other approaches will have to be considered.