Estimating the Growth Models of News Stories on Disasters

Understanding the growth models of news stories on disasters is a key issue for efficient disaster management. This article proposes a method to identify three growth models: the Damped Exponential Model, the Normal Model, and the Fluctuating Model. This method is proven to be valid using the 112 disasters occurring between 2003 and 2008. The factors that influence the likelihood of the growth models include disaster types, newsworthy material, disaster severity, and economic development of the affected area. This article suggests that disaster decision-makers can identify the respective likelihood of the three growth models of news stories when a disaster happens, and thereby implement effective measures in response to the disaster situation.