Journal
JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY
Volume 14, Issue 1, Pages 27-51Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x
Keywords
Seismic hazard; Strong earthquakes; Probability; Italy
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We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M (W) a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M (W) a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand 6.5.
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