Article
Environmental Sciences
Shulei Zhang, Liming Zhou, Lu Zhang, Yuting Yang, Zhongwang Wei, Sha Zhou, Dawen Yang, Xiaofan Yang, Xiuchen Wu, Yongqiang Zhang, Xiaoyan Li, Yongjiu Dai
Summary: There is controversy over whether and to what extent extreme precipitation caused by global warming affects river floods. This study finds that different flood types have different responses to extreme precipitation increases, with rainfall-induced floods increasing and snow-related floods decreasing. This overall leads to an unapparent change in total global floods. Distinguishing flood-generating mechanisms is important in assessing flood changes and associated risks.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Bin Guan, Duane E. Waliser, F. Martin Ralph
Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that play important roles in the global water cycle. The AR scale helps evaluate and communicate the global influences of ARs, with AR event count inversely related to AR rank and peaking in midlatitude oceans. As precipitation intensity increases, ARs account for a larger fraction of precipitation occurrences.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Y. Kamae, Y. Imada, H. Kawase, W. Mei
Summary: The study found that with global warming, the water vapor transport and rainfall related to ARs will intensify over the southern and western slopes of mountains in East Asia. ARs are responsible for a significant increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall in boreal spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Natalie Teale, David A. Robinson
Summary: This study investigates the variability in moisture transport patterns in the eastern USA and adjacent Atlantic Ocean during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, and their relationship with heavy precipitation. The study finds that high-IVT patterns increase while low-IVT patterns decrease over the study period, with rates of change varying by pattern and season. The study also shows an increase in the frequency of intense IVT patterns persisting for consecutive days, as well as interruptions in weak IVT patterns. The moisture transport in each pattern increases over time, particularly in the highest percentiles of IVT, suggesting an intensification of moisture transport in the eastern USA. The study identifies several moisture transport patterns as major contributors to regional heavy precipitation regimes, with meridional, high-IVT patterns increasing heavy precipitation and frequent, zonal patterns decreasing heavy precipitation. The study highlights the importance of using a moisture transport approach to understand regional precipitation shifts in the changing global hydroclimatic system.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Haireti Alifu, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yukiko Imada, Hideo Shiogama
Summary: This study investigates the influence of human-induced climate change on the probability of river flood events and finds that it has increased the likelihood of flooding, particularly in Asia and South America. However, in certain regions of North/South America and Asia, the occurrence of flood events is suppressed by human-induced climate change, possibly due to reduced snowfall.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Xinyue Liu, Xing Yuan, Enda Zhu
Summary: This study projected future changes in the fraction of stored precipitation (FSP) in surface soil under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios using models. The results suggest that global warming will significantly increase FSP in some regions while decreasing it in others.
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yeyan Jiang, Zhiwei Zhu, Juan Li, Lijuan Miao, Zishu Miao
Summary: Reliable projections of monsoon mean and extreme precipitation are crucial, and the relationship between mean and extreme precipitation is an important factor for accurate projections. Most models can accurately reproduce the relationship between mean and extreme precipitation. By using the selected models' projections of monsoon mean precipitation, the future extreme precipitation can be reliably predicted.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid
Summary: This study assessed the performance of 29 climate models and projected potential changes in precipitation in Egypt. The results indicate a more complex distribution of precipitation in Egypt, with an increase in extreme precipitation events in some regions and longer dry spells throughout the country. This suggests that despite efforts to limit global warming according to the Paris Agreement, Egypt's susceptibility to hydrological hazards is likely to increase.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jennifer K. Balch, John T. Abatzoglou, Maxwell B. Joseph, Michael J. Koontz, Adam L. Mahood, Joseph McGlinchy, Megan E. Cattau, A. Park Williams
Summary: This study reveals that the intensity of night-time fires has increased due to hotter and drier nights. The global daily minimum vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has increased by 25% from 1979 to 2020. The annual number of flammable night-time hours on burnable lands has increased by 110 hours, allowing for five additional nights of continuous flammability. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights have increased by at least one week. Night fires globally have become 7.2% more intense from 2003 to 2020, as measured by satellite records. These findings highlight the lack of relief during the night for wildfire suppression teams. It is expected that continued night-time warming, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will lead to more intense, longer-lasting, and larger fires.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jingwen Yu, Qingquan Li, Yihui Ding, Jie Zhang, Qingyuan Wu, Xinyong Shen
Summary: This study investigates the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer and evaluates the historical simulations of 19 models from the CMIP6 project. The results show that there is a notable increasing trend in water vapor content and net water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau, mainly driven by changes in water vapor import and export. The projected future variation suggests that water vapor content, net water vapor import, and precipitation will increase by the end of the twenty-first century. The enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern Tibetan Plateau may be the main reason for the increase in humidity.
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Gahong Yang, Yanqiong Xiao, Shengjie Wang, Yuqing Qian, Hongyang Li, Mingjun Zhang
Summary: The altitude effect of stable isotopes in meteoric water is the theoretical basis of isotope paleoaltimetry. However, recent observations have shown the existence of the inverse altitude effect (IAE) in meteoric water. In this study, global frequency of IAE in water vapor isotopes was examined using remote sensing data, and its possible influences on isotopes in precipitation and climate proxies were analyzed.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Siiri Bigalke, John E. Walsh
Summary: Manifestations of global warming in the Arctic include temperature increases and increased precipitation. Changes in snowfall are complex due to the opposing effects of warming and increased precipitation. This study analyzed high-resolution simulation outputs to assess future changes in snow under different warming scenarios. The results indicate that regions like northern Alaska, northern Canada, and Siberia will experience increased snowfall, while milder regions like southern Alaska and Europe will receive less snow in a warmer climate. The study also highlights the importance of limiting global warming to prevent significant changes in winter climates in Alaska and the Arctic.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sabine Robrecht, Baerbel Vogel, Simone Tilmes, Rolf Mueller
Summary: The study suggests that in the future scenario of geoengineering intervention, there is an increased likelihood of heterogeneous chlorine activation causing ozone destruction in the mid-lower stratosphere layer above central North America, which may have a certain impact on the ozone layer.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Shuyang Guo, Xiaodan Guan, Linlin Gao, Wen Sun, Chenyu Cao, Yongli He
Summary: This study focuses on the different responses of precipitation changes and drought in the Central Asian dryland and East Asian dryland to different phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The study finds that precipitation in these regions is associated with the positive phase of AMO, which further affects the severity of drought.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Juan Liang, Xianfeng Liu, Amir Aghakouchak, Philippe Ciais, Bojie Fu
Summary: Global warming is expected to increase extreme precipitation, but its impact on different climates is unclear. This study analyzed the sensitivity of extreme and mean precipitation to temperature in dry and wet regions using global climate models. Both extreme and mean precipitation showed similar patterns, but extreme precipitation was three times more sensitive to temperature (19%/K) compared to mean precipitation (6%/K). Dry regions exhibited higher sensitivity to temperature for both mean and extreme precipitation compared to wet regions. These findings highlight the importance of implementing adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of global warming on dryland ecosystems.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, Daniela Jacob, Claas Teichmann, Sabina Abba Omar, Moetasim Ashfaq, Nikolina Ban, Katharina Buelow, Melissa Bukovsky, Lars Buntemeyer, Tereza Cavazos, James Ciarlo, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Sushant Das, Fabio di Sante, Jason P. Evans, Xuejie Gao, Graziano Giuliani, Russell H. Glazer, Peter Hoffmann, Eun-Soon Im, Gaby Langendijk, Ludwig Lierhammer, Marta Llopart, Sebastial Mueller, Rosa Luna-Nino, Rita Nogherotto, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Michelle Reboita, Diana Rechid, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Kevin Sieck, Jose Abraham Torres-Alavez, Torsten Weber
Summary: This article describes the first effort of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-CORE EXP-I, which involves using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program. The results cover a wide range of topics, including extreme indices, storms, monsoons, and more. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble provides unprecedented downscaled information to improve understanding of regional climate change and impacts.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chiara Holgate, Jason P. Evans, Andrea S. Taschetto, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso
Summary: This study investigates how climate modes modulate the sources of moisture for rainfall in east Australia. It finds that La Nina leads to wetter conditions in the region due to increased moisture transport and easier conversion into rainfall, while El Nino leads to drier conditions due to inhibiting local conversion of moisture into rainfall. Distant atmospheric changes over the Indian and Southern Oceans can amplify these changes. The results contribute to a better understanding and prediction of the regional impact of long-term changes in these climate variability modes, which can potentially be altered under climate change.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Jason P. Evans, Anna Ukkola
Summary: This study introduces a new approach to defining drought by establishing empirical relationships between historical droughts and climate features, showing better predictive capabilities than commonly used indicators. The new method integrates multiple climate features to reveal the full suite of circumstances that lead to impactful droughts.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Giovanni Di Virgilio, Fei Ji, Eugene Tam, Nidhi Nishant, Jason P. Evans, Chris Thomas, Matthew L. Riley, Kathleen Beyer, Michael R. Grose, Sugata Narsey, Francois Delage
Summary: Global climate models (GCMs) are limited in their effectiveness for climate adaptation planning at regional scales. The evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs identifies a suitable subset for dynamical downscaling over Australia.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Anna M. Ukkola, Martin De Kauwe, Andy Pitman, Jason P. Evans, Hylke Beck
Summary: The latest report confirms that global warming has caused significant changes in the global terrestrial hydrological cycle, but the inconsistencies in reported trends indicate a lack of rigorous observation-based assessment of the different components of the cycle. By analyzing the major components of the hydrological cycle and vegetation greenness, this study provides important insights into the changes and offers opportunities for water resources management and climate risk assessment.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hooman Ayat, Jason P. Evans, Steven C. Sherwood, Joshua Soderholm
Summary: The study examines a coastal site in Sydney, Australia, using 20 years of radar data to establish a regional precipitation system climatology. The findings reveal that extreme storms with high translation-speed, size, and rainfall intensity usually occur in the warm season, specifically between 10 am and 8 pm. Precipitation systems are more frequent in the cold season and typically initiate over the ocean and move northward. Clustering algorithms identify five distinct precipitation system types that peak in different seasons. Although there is no overall link between rainfall statistics and climate modes, some system types show connections using a multivariate approach.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Jason P. Evans, Alejandro Di Luca, Giovanni Di Virgilio, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Eugene Tam, Kathleen Beyer, Matthew L. Riley
Summary: The temperature in the Australian Alps is increasing at a faster rate than the surrounding areas, and this is strongly correlated with changes in albedo. Future warming is expected to lead to warmer cool seasons and have a significant impact on this region.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Hooman Ayat, Jason P. Evans, Steven C. Sherwood, Joshua Soderholm
Summary: There is a significant increase in subhourly extreme rainfall near Sydney over the past 20 years, with a trend of at least 20% per decade. This trend is consistently observed in storms tracked using ground radars, supported by rain-gauge data, and does not appear to be associated with known natural variations. Subhourly rainfall extremes may be increasing substantially faster than those on longer time scales.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fei Ji, Nidhi Nishant, Jason P. Evans, Giovanni Di Virgilio, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Eugene Tam, Kathleen Beyer, Matthew L. Riley
Summary: NARCliM1.5 is the second generation of the New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling project, which aims to provide regional climate projections for the Australasia and southeast Australia regions. In this study, the performance of two generations of NARCliM (N1.0 and N1.5) in representing observed climate extremes and their projections for southeast Australia are evaluated. Results show that N1.5 ensemble improves upon N1.0 in capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes, while there is little difference between the two ensembles for temperature extremes.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Youngil Kim, Jason P. Evans, Ashish Sharma
Summary: To improve modeling capacities, a better understanding of physical relationships and higher skill climate models are needed. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are commonly used to resolve finer scales, but their application is restricted by systematic biases within Global Climate Models (GCMs) datasets. Hence, it is advisable to remove these biases in GCM simulations prior to downscaling. Various techniques have been formulated to correct the biases, but most correct each variable independently, leading to physical inconsistencies. This study investigates bias corrections ranging from simple to complex techniques and shows that applying bias correction to RCM boundaries significantly improves model performance, with multivariate bias correction better representing extreme events.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Moutassem El Rafei, Steven Sherwood, Jason Evans, Andrew Dowdy
Summary: Extreme wind gusts cause significant socioeconomic damage. It is challenging to analyze these rare and localized events using either modeling or empirical approaches. A 23-year long data record from 29 automatic weather stations in eastern Australia was used to study the distribution, frequency, and average recurrence intervals of extreme gusts. The study confirms the dominant role of thunderstorms in producing the most extreme gusts in the region and shows that wind risk varies strongly with distance from the coast.
Article
Energy & Fuels
Alejandra Isaza, Merlinde Kay, Jason P. Evans, Abhnil Prasad, Stephen Bremner
Summary: The Black Summer bushfires in 2019-2020 had significant impacts on health, wildlife, and infrastructure in eastern Australia. The smoke-related aerosols generated from these fires also had a negative effect on solar energy production. This study examines the effects of high particulate matter (PM) concentrations on photovoltaic (PV) energy production in New South Wales during the bushfire season, finding that polluted conditions led to reductions in PV generation, especially in areas near the burning bushfires. High-speed winds carried the smoke hundreds of kilometers, affecting air quality and PV energy generation in Sydney.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moutassem El Rafei, Steven Sherwood, Jason P. Evans, Fei Ji
Summary: The study examines extreme wind gust events in eastern Australia using long-term reanalysis data and station observations. By utilizing the generalised Pareto distribution and a decision tree model, the study estimates return values and distinguishes between convective and synoptic gust events. The reanalysis data proves to be valuable, especially in regions with limited observational coverage.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael R. Grose, Sugata Narsey, Ralph Trancoso, Chloe Mackallah, Francois Delage, Andrew Dowdy, Giovanni Di Virgilio, Ian Watterson, Peter Dobrohotoff, Harun A. Rashid, Surendra Rauniyar, Ben Henley, Marcus Thatcher, Jozef Syktus, Gab Abramowitz, Jason P. Evans, Chun -Hsu Su, Alicia Takbash
Summary: A multi-scenario, multi-model ensemble of simulations from regional climate models is used to generate climate projections and a climate change service. The selected models are chosen based on their performance and representativeness, and they provide key data for future climate planning in Australia.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Moutassem El Rafei, Steven Sherwood, Jason Evans, Andrew Dowdy, Fei Ji
Summary: Preparing for environmental risks requires estimating the frequencies of extreme events, often from data records that are too short to confirm them directly. Fitting a statistical distribution to the data is necessary, but pooling data from neighboring sites into single samples can introduce unexpected biases in typical situations. Previous analyses may have overestimated the likelihood of extreme events arising from natural weather variability.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
