4.7 Article

Identifying sources of temporal variability in hydrological extremes of the upper Blue Nile basin

Journal

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 499, Issue -, Pages 61-70

Publisher

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.053

Keywords

Temporal variability; Hydrological extremes; Rainfall-runoff modeling; QPM; Upper Blue Nile basin

Funding

  1. DBOF scholarship of KU Leuven

Ask authors/readers for more resources

It is known that changes in catchment runoff variability are a function of changes in climate as well as catchment behavior. For proper management of a certain watershed it is important to have a good understanding of the main causes of variability. Specifically, changes in extreme conditions of water resources are imperative as their consequences are far reaching. This paper attempts to identify the cause of hydrological extremes variability in the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. A method is proposed to utilize conceptual hydrological models to simulate long term (41 years) hydro-meteorological data and analyse the outputs using the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM) specially designed for investigation of the temporal variability of extreme values in time series over multi-annual to (multi-)decadal time scales. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and evaluated for their performance to simulate extreme high flows and changes in these flows for corresponding changes in rainfall conditions. The temporal variability results show similar patterns for simulated and observed extreme flows. This indicates the major influence of climate variability in extreme flows as demonstrated by the rainfall input in the models. There is no discernible change in the catchment response, e.g. quick runoff coefficient as a function of soil saturation state, between periods of the 1960-1970s, the 1980s and the 1990-2000s, which are attributed to land policy changes. This shows the influence of changes in catchment characteristics is minimal. (Multi-)decadal climate variability is identified as the main cause of temporal variation in hydrological extremes of the Blue Nile basin. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Ecology

An iterative runoff propagation approach to identify priority locations for land cover change minimizing downstream river flood hazard

Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, Jos Van Orshoven

Summary: This study presents an optimization method based on a rainfall-runoff model to identify optimal locations for land use changes that can mitigate runoff accumulation and flood hazard. The method was tested in two medium-sized catchments in Belgium and results showed that afforestation and winter cover crops can reduce runoff volumes, while sealing increases runoff. Priority pixels with high flow accumulation have a larger impact on downstream runoff, emphasizing the importance of enhancing infiltration capacity in river valleys.

LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING (2022)

Article Agronomy

Timing leaf senescence: A generalized additive models for location, scale and shape approach

Bertold Marien, Dimitri Papadimitriou, Titta Kotilainen, Paolo Zuccarini, Inge Dox, Melanie Verlinden, Thilo Heinecke, Joachim Marien, Patrick Willems, Mieke Decoster, Aina Gasco, Holger Lange, Josep Penuelas, Matteo Campioli

Summary: Accurate estimations of phenophases in deciduous trees are crucial for understanding forest ecosystems and their impact on climate. This study collected chlorophyll content index data for four deciduous tree species from Belgium, Norway, and Spain over four years. The results revealed the phenological strategies and seasonal trends in leaf senescence for dry and warm years and identified daily average temperature, global radiation, and vapor pressure deficit as the main drivers of the timing of senescence transition. The study also found suitable modeling distributions for chlorophyll content index and senescence transition date.

AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Trivariate Analysis of Changes in Drought Characteristics in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble at Global Warming Levels of 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C

Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems

Summary: Traditional global warming impact assessments on drought have often underestimated the overall impact by only considering one drought characteristic at a time. This study uses a trivariate analysis and finds that global warming will lead to more recurrent droughts in larger areas, particularly as the warming levels increase.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

Article Water Resources

Uncovering the strengths and weaknesses of an ensemble of quantile mapping methods for downscaling precipitation change in Southern Africa

Santiago Mendoza Paz, Patrick Willems

Summary: This study focuses on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of quantile mapping in climate downscaling based on global climate model projections in Southern Africa. Different methods, including parametric and non-parametric transformations, are used and validated using cross-validation. The results reveal that non-parametric methods and parametric methods using exponential-type transformation have generally good skill in correcting biases. The uncertainty contribution analysis shows that the climate models are the largest contributors to overall uncertainty, while in some cases the methods have the highest uncertainty share. The stationary assumptions of quantile mapping are found to be robust. The projections indicate a tendency towards dryer conditions and intensified precipitation events in the region, with strong intra-regional variations.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Quantifying climate change effects on future forest biomass availability using yield tables improved by mechanistic scaling

Ilie Storms, Sanne Verdonck, Bruno Verbist, Patrick Willems, Pieterjan De Geest, Martin Gutsch, Nathalie Cools, Bruno De Vos, Mats Mahnken, Joachim Lopez, Jos Van Orshoven, Bart Muys

Summary: This study proposes a methodology to improve yield tables for 11 tree species in the Netherlands and Flanders, Belgium, using climate-sensitive process-based modeling. The results show an average increase in stand productivity from 1987-2016 compared to 1961-1990, and simulations suggest that this positive growth trend will continue in the coming decades. Local site variability is also found to be important in assessing forests' response to climate change.

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical characterization of rainfall fields based upon a 12-year high-resolution radar archive of Belgium

Carlos Munoz Lopez, Li-Pen Wang, Patrick Willems

Summary: In this study, a conceptual rain storm model was constructed using historical long-term radar data archive to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Belgium at fine scales. This analysis can serve as a basis for future applications, particularly in refining existing long-term spatial rainfall generators.

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH (2023)

Article Economics

Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change- The Small Island Developing State perspective

Peter Donk, Sebastian Sterl, Wim Thiery, Patrick Willems

Summary: While high renewable electricity targets are achievable currently, long-term power sector planning should consider the dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modeling using the REVUB approach is a powerful tool for informed decision making. A case study in Suriname reveals an optimized renewable electricity share potential of 50% to 90% based on hydro, wind, and solar power resources in future scenarios.

ENERGY POLICY (2023)

Article Engineering, Civil

Physics-informed machine learning method for modelling transport of a conservative pollutant in surface water systems

Daan Bertels, Patrick Willems

Summary: This paper presents a new machine learning model architecture, based on LSTM cell, which enforces the principle of mass conservation to introduce scientific knowledge and enhance the model's robustness. The proposed model shows higher accuracy than established reference neural networks for predicting salinization of navigable waterways in Belgium under new conditions.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Identification and Analysis of Heatwave Events Considering Temporal Continuity and Spatial Dynamics

Yanqun Ren, Jinping Liu, Tongchang Zhang, Masoud Jafari Shalamzari, Arfan Arshad, Tie Liu, Patrick Willems, Huiran Gao, Hui Tao, Tingli Wang

Summary: This study examines the heatwave events in seven geographic subregions of China from 1979 to 2018 using the latest intensity-area-duration framework. The results show that heatwaves of all durations have increased in frequency and intensity, with shorter heatwaves increasing at a faster rate. Xinjiang and Southern China have the most frequent heatwave occurrence, while the Southwest and Southern China have the highest increase in heatwave frequency. In terms of spatial trends, Southern China, Xinjiang, and the Southwest have the highest rates of intensity growth, influence area, and duration respectively. The findings provide insights for developing strategies to prepare for and mitigate the adverse effects of heatwave occurrences.

REMOTE SENSING (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Global risk assessment of compound hot-dry events in the context of future climate change and socioeconomic factors

Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems

Summary: Compound hot-dry events have the potential to overwhelm natural and human systems, leading to significant damages and socioeconomic tipping points. Climate change amplifies the impacts of these events, and their future risk and role are poorly understood. By the end of the 21st century, an additional 0.7-1.7 billion people will be exposed to compound events globally, with cropland exposure increasing by 2-5.7 million km(2). Countries with weak governance will experience a larger increase in risk compared to those with good governance, highlighting the importance of effective governance in managing and mitigating compound events.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Sustainable development substantially reduces the risk of future drought impacts

Hossein Tabari, Patrick Willems

Summary: Drought is a significant natural hazard that will become more likely in the future, affecting regions such as the Mediterranean, Amazon, southern Africa, and Central America. Sustainable development can reduce drought risk and population exposure, as well as the number of countries facing high drought risk. This highlights the need for a comprehensive cross-disciplinary drought risk outlook that considers exposure and vulnerability.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Microbiology

Shift in vacuolar to cytosolic regime of infecting Salmonella from a dual proteome perspective

Ursula Fels, Patrick Willems, Margaux De Meyer, Kris Gevaert, Petra Van Damme

Summary: By applying dual proteome profiling, this study obtained a detailed and holistic proteomic perspective on host-pathogen interactions during Salmonella infection. Data-independent acquisition (DIA) proteomics outperformed data-dependent acquisition (DDA) in identifying the downregulated bacterial proteome response during early stages of infection. This study revealed specific proteomic signatures and interdependent host/pathogen responses, as well as potential novel infection markers and signaling responses.

PLOS PATHOGENS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Evaluations of satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in the Bale Eco-Region (Southern Ethiopia) to enhance the quality of input data for hydro-climate studies

Temesgen Gashaw, Abeyou W. Worqlul, Haileyesus Lakew, Meron Teferi Taye, Abdulkarim Seid, Amare Haileslassie

Summary: The study aimed to evaluate the performance of satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in the Bale Eco-Region (BER) in Ethiopia. Three rainfall products and two temperature products were evaluated against observed data, and the findings showed differences in performance across different agro-ecological zones and temporal scales. The study concluded that the best performing products for each zone can be used to enhance the quality of hydro-climate study outputs in data scarce regions.

REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS-SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartosova, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindric Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendekova, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiri Jakubinsky, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urosev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, Nenad Zivkovic

Summary: Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. Little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. This study characterised and assessed the impacts and perceptions of two recent drought events in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact.

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES (2022)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A comparative flood damage and risk impact assessment of land use changes

Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, Jos van Orshoven

Summary: This paper presents an approach for assessing the relative impact of land use changes on flood damages and risk, in order to achieve sustainable flood risk management. Through a case study in the undulating catchment of Flanders, Belgium, it is found that afforestation can reduce risk by 57%, while sealing leads to a risk increment of less than 1%.

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES (2022)

Article Engineering, Civil

Reconstructing high-resolution groundwater level data using a hybrid random forest model to quantify distributed groundwater changes in the Indus Basin

Arfan Arshad, Ali Mirchi, Javier Vilcaez, Muhammad Umar Akbar, Kaveh Madani

Summary: High-resolution, continuous groundwater data is crucial for adaptive aquifer management. This study presents a predictive modeling framework that incorporates covariates and existing observations to estimate groundwater level changes. The framework outperforms other methods and provides reliable estimates for unmonitored sites. The study also examines groundwater level changes in different regions and highlights the importance of effective aquifer management.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Hydrological modelling of large-scale karst-dominated basin using a grid-based distributed karst hydrological model

Lihua Chen, Jie Deng, Wenzhe Yang, Hang Chen

Summary: A new grid-based distributed karst hydrological model (GDKHM) is developed to simulate streamflow in the flood-prone karst area of Southwest China. The results show that the GDKHM performs well in predicting floods and capturing the spatial variability of karst system.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Using a physics-based hydrological model and storm transposition to investigate machine-learning algorithms for streamflow prediction

Faruk Gurbuz, Avinash Mudireddy, Ricardo Mantilla, Shaoping Xiao

Summary: Machine learning algorithms have shown better performance in streamflow prediction compared to traditional hydrological models. In this study, researchers proposed a methodology to test and benchmark ML algorithms using artificial data generated by physically-based hydrological models. They found that deep learning algorithms can correctly identify the relationship between streamflow and rainfall in certain conditions, but fail to outperform traditional prediction methods in other scenarios.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Uncertainty separation of drought projection in the 21st century using SMILEs and CMIP6

Yadong Ji, Jianyu Fu, Bingjun Liu, Zeqin Huang, Xuejin Tan

Summary: This study distinguishes the uncertainty in drought projection into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal variability uncertainty. The results show that the estimation of total uncertainty reaches a minimum in the mid-21st century and that model uncertainty is dominant in tropical regions.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Quantifying the natural flood management potential of leaky dams in upland catchments, Part II: Leaky dam impacts on flood peak magnitude

Z. R. van Leeuwen, M. J. Klaar, M. W. Smith, L. E. Brown

Summary: This study quantifies the effectiveness of leaky dams in reducing flood peak magnitude using a transfer function noise modelling approach. The results show that leaky dams have a significant but highly variable impact on flood peak magnitude, and managing expectations should consider event size and type.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Forecasting and optimization for minimizing combined sewer overflows using Machine learning frameworks and its inversion techniques

Zeda Yin, Yasaman Saadati, M. Hadi Amini, Linlong Bian, Beichao Hu

Summary: Combined sewer overflows pose significant threats to public health and the environment, and various strategies have been proposed to mitigate their adverse effects. Smart control strategies have gained traction due to their cost-effectiveness but face challenges in balancing precision and computational efficiency. To address this, we propose exploring machine learning models and the inversion of neural networks for more efficient CSO prediction and optimization.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Characterizing nitrogen dynamics and their response to sediment dredging in a lowland rural river

Qimou Zhang, Jiacong Huang, Jing Zhang, Rui Qian, Zhen Cui, Junfeng Gao

Summary: This study developed a N-cycling model for lowland rural rivers covered by macrophytes and investigated the N imports, exports, and response to sediment dredging. The findings showed a considerable N retention ability in the study river, with significant N imports from connected rivers and surrounding polders. Sediment dredging increased particulate nitrogen resuspension and settling rates, while decreasing ammonia nitrogen release, denitrification, and macrophyte uptake rates.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Using a two-step downscaling method to assess the impact of climate change on total nitrogen load in a small basin

Xue Li, Yingyin Zhou, Jian Sha, Man Zhang, Zhong-Liang Wang

Summary: High-resolution climate data is crucial for predicting regional climate and water environment changes. In this study, a two-step downscaling method was developed to enhance the spatial resolution of GCM data and improve the accuracy for small basins. The method combined medium-resolution climate data with high-resolution topographic data to capture spatial and temporal details. The downscaled climate data were then used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality in a small basin. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the downscaling method for spatially differentiated simulations.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau is degrading: Historical and projected trends

Tongqing Shen, Peng Jiang, Jiahui Zhao, Xuegao Chen, Hui Lin, Bin Yang, Changhai Tan, Ying Zhang, Xinting Fu, Zhongbo Yu

Summary: This study evaluates the long-term interannual dynamics of permafrost distribution and active layer thickness on the Tibetan Plateau, and predicts future degradation trends. The results show that permafrost area has been decreasing and active layer thickness has been increasing, with an accelerated degradation observed in recent decades. This has significant implications for local water cycle processes, water ecology, and water security.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Quantifying precipitation moisture contributed by different atmospheric circulations across the Tibetan Plateau

Chi Zhang, Xu Zhang, Qiuhong Tang, Deliang Chen, Jinchuan Huang, Shaohong Wu, Yubo Liu

Summary: Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau is influenced by systems such as the Asian monsoons, the westerlies, and local circulations. The Indian monsoon, the westerlies, and local circulations are the main systems affecting precipitation over the entire Tibetan Plateau. The East Asian summer monsoon primarily affects the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The Indian monsoon has the greatest influence on precipitation in the southern and central grid cells, while the westerlies have the greatest influence on precipitation in the northern and western grid cells. Local circulations have the strongest influence on the central and eastern grid cells.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

A methodology to improve the accuracy of Total phosphorous diffuse load estimates from agroforestry watersheds

Manuel Almeida, Antonio Rodrigues, Pedro Coelho

Summary: This study aimed to improve the accuracy of Total Phosphorus export coefficient models, which are essential for water management. Four different models were applied to 27 agroforestry watersheds in the Mediterranean region. The modeling approach showed significant improvements in predicting the Total Phosphorus diffuse loads.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Prediction of dissolved organic nitrogen via spectroscopic fingerprint in the shallow riverbed sediments of effluent-dominated rivers: A case study in Xi'an, northwest China

Yutao Wang, Haojie Yin, Ziyi Wang, Yi Li, Pingping Wang, Longfei Wang

Summary: This study investigated the distribution and transformation of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in riverbed sediments impacted by effluent discharge. The authors found that the spectral characteristics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in surface water and sediment porewater could be used to predict DON variations in riverbed sediments. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting machine learning methods were employed to provide accurate predictions of DON content and properties at different depths. These findings have important implications for wastewater discharge management and river health.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Uncertainty analysis of 100-year flood maps under climate change scenarios

Saba Mirza Alipour, Kolbjorn Engeland, Joao Leal

Summary: This study assesses the uncertainty associated with 100-year flood maps under different scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. The findings highlight the importance of employing probabilistic approaches for accurate and secure flood maps, with the selection of probability distribution being the primary source of uncertainty in precipitation.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Hydrological consequences of controlled drainage with subirrigation

Janine A. de Wit, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Jos C. van Dam, Ge A. P. H. van den Eertwegh, Dion van Deijl, Coen J. Ritsema, Ruud P. Bartholomeus

Summary: The study focuses on the hydrological consequences of controlled drainage with subirrigation (CD-SI) on groundwater level, soil moisture content, and soil water potential. The simulations show that CD-SI can improve hydrological conditions for crop growth, but the success depends on subtle differences in geohydrologic characteristics.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)

Article Engineering, Civil

Understanding the global success criteria for managed aquifer recharge schemes

Constantin Seidl, Sarah Ann Wheeler, Declan Page

Summary: Water availability and quality issues will become increasingly important in the future due to climate change impacts. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is an effective water management tool, but often overlooked. This study analyzes global MAR applications and identifies the key factors for success, providing valuable insights for future design and application.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY (2024)