Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 394, Issue 1-2, Pages 275-284Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.02.014
Keywords
Flash flood; Flash flood guidance; Radar-rainfall; Uncertainties
Funding
- NASA Headquarters [NNX06AF23H]
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The flash flood guidance system (FFGS) is an operational system which assists forecasters to issue flash flood warnings and watches over the conterminous United States Currently It is a deterministic system given a specified precipitation accumulation over a basin and Dyer a time period issuing of flash flood watches and warnings is considered depending on the exceedance of a certain threshold value (flash flood guidance - FFG) For given channel characteristics and initial soil moisture conditions FFG values are computed with the use of a hydrologic model The purpose of this study is to consider the effects of radar-rainfall and flash flood guidance uncertainties on the FFGS The errors in the FFG are accounted for by quantifying the uncertainties due to the estimation of the hydraulic and terrain characteristics and the hydrologic model parameters and initial state To account for the uncertainties in radar-rainfall the authors use an empirically-based radar-rainfall error model This model requires calibration for each application region and it accounts for range effects synoptic conditions space-time resolutions and the spatial and temporal dependences of the errors Thus the combined effects of uncertainty in both radar-rainfall and FFG can be assessed The results are exemplified through two cases in a small basin in the Illinois River Basin The potential of transforming FFGS Into a probabilistic system is also discussed (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
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