4.7 Article

Wind direction forecasting with artificial neural networks and support vector machines

Journal

OCEAN ENGINEERING
Volume 97, Issue -, Pages 65-73

Publisher

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.12.026

Keywords

Wind forecast; Support vector machines; Artificial neural networks; Sailing yacht; Race; Tactics

Ask authors/readers for more resources

We propose two methods for short term forecasting of wind direction with the aim to provide input for tactic decisions during yacht races. The wind direction measured in the past minutes is used as input and the wind direction for the next two minutes constitutes the output. The two methods are based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM), respectively. For both methods we optimise the length of the moving average that we use to pre-process the input data, the length of the input vector and, for the ANN only, the number of neurons of each layer. The forecast is evaluated by looking at the mean absolute error and at a mean effectiveness index, which assesses the percentage of times that the forecast is accurate enough to predict the correct tactical choice in a sailing yacht race. The ANN forecast based on the ensemble average of ten networks shows a larger mean absolute error and a similar mean effectiveness index than the SVM forecast. However, we showed that the ANN forecast accuracy increases significantly with the size of the ensemble. Therefore increasing the computational power, it can lead to a better forecast. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Authors

I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.

Reviews

Primary Rating

4.7
Not enough ratings

Secondary Ratings

Novelty
-
Significance
-
Scientific rigor
-
Rate this paper

Recommended

Article Engineering, Civil

New Zealand design wind speeds, directional and lee-zone multipliers proposed for AS/NZS 1170.2:2021

Amir Ali Safaei Pirooz, Richard G. J. Flay, Richard Turner

Summary: This study estimates design wind speeds and lee-zone multipliers for New Zealand through historical wind data analysis and numerical weather prediction model. It highlights the importance of homogenization of data and extreme value analysis and proposes significant changes for future wind-loading standards, including adding a new wind region, refining wind zone boundaries, and modifying lee-zone regions and multipliers.

JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS (2021)

Article Engineering, Multidisciplinary

External blast load factors for dome structures based on reliability

Shao-bo Qi, Guang-yan Huang, Xu-dong Zhi, Feng Fan, Richard G. J. Flay

Summary: This paper investigates the effect of blast load variability on the design value and the structural dynamic response for dome structures. It proposes a reliability-based external blast load factor technique to estimate structural damage levels and enhance the structural anti-explosion capacity.

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY (2022)

Article Engineering, Civil

Analysis of the wind field characteristics induced by the 2019 Typhoon Bailu for the high-speed railway bridge crossing China?s southeast bay

Gonglian Dai, Zhiwei Xu, Y. Frank Chen, Richard G. J. Flay, Huiming Rao

Summary: This study analyzed the wind field characteristics of Typhoon Bailu in the southeast coastal bay of China in 2019. It found that the amplitude of the typhoon spectra decreased almost one order of magnitude after the second landfall, and a logarithmic model was more consistent with the measured wind speed profile. Strong coherence of u and w components at low frequencies was also demonstrated.

JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS (2021)

Article Mechanics

The scales of the leading-edge separation bubble

J. A. Smith, G. Pisetta, I. M. Viola

Summary: The study investigates the reattachment characteristics of leading-edge separation bubbles on flat plates at zero and small incidences, developing a formula to predict the reattachment length. Experimental and theoretical studies show that the length of the bubble is governed by Reynolds numbers in turbulent conditions.

PHYSICS OF FLUIDS (2021)

Article Engineering, Mechanical

Unsteady load mitigation through a passive trailing-edge flap

Abel Arredondo-Galeana, Anna M. Young, Amanda S. M. Smyth, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: Passive trailing-edge flaps can effectively alleviate unsteady load fluctuations by up to 25% without affecting the mean load, with effectiveness dependent on their size relative to the foil.

JOURNAL OF FLUIDS AND STRUCTURES (2021)

Article Engineering, Marine

The force generation mechanism of lifting surfaces with flow separation

Ignazio Maria Viola, Abel Arredondo-Galeana, Gabriele Pisetta

Summary: This paper proposes a paradigm based on established concepts in theoretical fluid mechanics to address lift and drag generation in separated flow conditions. By associating force generation with the vorticity field, designers of lifting surfaces are provided with a measurable objective to optimize shape in separated flow conditions.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2021)

Article Mechanics

Turbulent flow around circular arcs

Jean-Baptiste R. G. Souppez, Patrick Bot, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: The study investigates the flow around a circular arc and its effects on forces. It is found that a leading-edge separation bubble is formed on the convex side of the arc, leading to boundary layer separation. The force crisis is associated with the suppressed relaminarization of the boundary layer, and the critical angle of attack exhibits a linear relationship with the Reynolds number.

PHYSICS OF FLUIDS (2022)

Article Engineering, Marine

A Low Cost Oscillating Membrane for Underwater Applications at Low Reynolds Numbers

Abel Arredondo-Galeana, Aristides Kiprakis, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: This paper investigates the active surface morphing technique at low cost and low Reynolds number for underwater applications. Experimental results show that the method can increase lift by 1% and decrease drag by 6% under fast actuation. The approach is applicable to the marine environment and more economical than existing technologies.

JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING (2022)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

Underwater LED-based Lagrangian particle tracking velocimetry

Ignazio Maria Viola, Alex Nila, Thomas Davey, Roman Gabl

Summary: A new white-light volumetric flow measurement technique is introduced for largescale facilities. This technique enables accurate measurement of large volumes without the need for a class-4 laser. Experimental results show that the LED-based Lagrangian particle tracking velocimetry can effectively measure the tip vortex formation and near wake of a tidal turbine in a water tank.

JOURNAL OF VISUALIZATION (2022)

Article Engineering, Civil

Effect of non-Gaussian turbulence on extreme buffeting response of a high-speed railway sea-crossing bridge

Zhiwei Xu, Gonglian Dai, Limao Zhang, Y. Frank Chen, Richard G. J. Flay, Huiming Rao

Summary: This study proposed and validated a hybrid approach for predicting the extreme buffeting response of bridges, considering multi-dimensional non-Gaussian random variables. The results showed that the non-Gaussian typhoon decreased the lateral extreme response, while increasing the vertical extreme response. Additionally, there was a strong correlation between the non-Gaussian intensity of the wind component and the lateral buffeting response.

JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Dandelion pappus morphing is actuated by radially patterned material swelling

Madeleine Seale, Annamaria Kiss, Simone Bovio, Ignazio Maria Viola, Enrico Mastropaolo, Arezki Boudaoud, Naomi Nakayama

Summary: This article introduces the mechanism by which plants generate motion through the absorption and release of water, using the example of the dandelion to explore the relationship between the structure and function of closing its hairy pappus. Through studying the structure and properties of the actuator cell walls, the authors identify the mechanism by which the dandelion pappus closes and develop a structural computational model to investigate its critical design features. The actuator relies on the radial arrangement of vascular bundles and surrounding tissues to coordinate movement. This simple material-based mechanism has promising biomimetic potential in robotics and functional materials.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

Article Engineering, Civil

High-blockage corrections for circular arcs at transitional Reynolds numbers

Jean-Baptiste R. G. Souppez, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: This study develops a blockage correction method using experimental methods, which allows for an extended range of model sizes that can be tested in water and wind tunnels, and contributes to the accurate accounting of blockage effects at transitional Reynolds number conditions.

JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS (2022)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Model-scale experiments of passive pitch control for tidal turbines

Stefano Gambuzza, Gabriele Pisetta, Thomas Davey, Jeffrey Steynor, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: Tidal currents are a renewable and predictable energy source that can reduce dependence on fossil fuels. However, they are highly unsteady and non-uniform, resulting in undesirable load fluctuations on turbine blades and the drive train. A passive morphing blade concept has been formulated to reduce these load fluctuations without affecting the mean loads, and its effectiveness has been demonstrated through experimental tests on a 1.2-m diameter turbine. This study also highlights critical design aspects, such as minimizing friction resistance, for the successful implementation of morphing blades in tidal turbines.

RENEWABLE ENERGY (2023)

Article Robotics

Mechanical Characterisation of Woven Pneumatic Active Textile

Ruby Marshall, Jean-Baptiste R. G. Souppez, Mariya Khan, Ignazio Maria Viola, Hiroyuki Nabae, Koichi Suzumori, Adam A. Stokes, Francesco Giorgio-Serchi

Summary: Active textiles have great potential in soft robotics due to their tunable stiffness and design flexibility. However, there is currently no rigorous and generalizable characterization of these systems due to the wide design space of planar and spatial arrangements of woven structures. In this study, a parametric study of plain weave active fabrics was conducted to characterize their mechanical properties under varying muscle densities and pressures. The findings provide insights into the mechanical properties of active textiles and may contribute to the development of wearable technologies and biomedical devices in the future.

IEEE ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION LETTERS (2023)

Article Engineering, Mechanical

Unsteady lift on a high-amplitude pitching aerofoil

Shuji Otomo, Sabrina Henne, Karen Mulleners, Kiran Ramesh, Ignazio Maria Viola

Summary: The study shows that combining Theodorsen's linear theory with unsteady thin-aerofoil theory can accurately predict the forces on an aerofoil during large flow variations, particularly with high accuracy in the presence of intense vortices. However, the accuracy of the model decreases when leading and trailing edge vortices interact with each other.

EXPERIMENTS IN FLUIDS (2021)

Article Engineering, Marine

HySwash: A hybrid model for nearshore wave processes

Alba Ricondo, Laura Cagigal, Beatriz Perez-Diaz, Fernando J. Mendez

Summary: This research presents a site-specific metamodel based on the SWASH numerical model simulations, which can predict coastal hydrodynamic variables in a fast and efficient manner. The metamodel uses downscaled and dimensionality reduced synthetic database to accurately reproduce wave setup, wave heights associated with different frequency bands, and wave runup. This method has great potential in coastal risk assessments, early warning systems, and climate change projections.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Experimental study on the mechanical behavior and energy absorption capacity of coral sand at high strain rates

Xiao Yu, Wangjun Ren, Bukui Zhou, Li Chen, Xiangyun Xu, Genmao Ren

Summary: This study investigated and compared the compression responses and energy absorption capacities of coral sand and silica sand at a strain rate of approximately 1000 s-1. The results showed that coral sand had significantly higher energy absorption capacity than silica sand due to its higher compressibility. The study findings suggest that using poorly graded coral sand can improve its energy absorption capacity.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Cooperative model predictive control for ship formation tracking with communication delays

Jingxi Zhang, Junmin Mou, Linying Chen, Pengfei Chen, Mengxia Li

Summary: This paper proposes a cooperative control scheme for ship formation tracking based on Model Predictive Control. A predictive observer is designed to estimate the current motion states of the leader ship using delayed motion information. Comparative simulations demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed controller.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

A numerical investigation of the 2DH wave characteristics across a fringing reef profile with reef-flat excavation pit

Yu Yao, Danni Zhong, Qijia Shi, Ji Wu, Jiangxia Li

Summary: This study proposes a 2DH numerical model based on Boussinesq equations to investigate the impact of dredging reef-flat sand on wave characteristics and wave-driven current. The model is verified through wave flume experiments and wave basin experiments, and the influences of incident wave conditions and pit morphological features on wave characteristics are examined.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Double-averaged turbulence statistics of wave current flow over rough bed with staggered arrangement of hemispherical blocks

Jayanta Shounda, Krishnendu Barman, Koustuv Debnath

Summary: This study investigates the double-average turbulence characteristics of combined wave-current flow over a rough bed with different spacing arrangements. The results show that a spacing ratio of p/r=4 offers the highest resistance to the flow, and the double-average Reynolds stress decreases throughout the flow depth. The advection of momentum-flux of normal stress shows an increase at the outer layer and a decrease near the bed region after wave imposition. Maximum turbulence kinetic energy production and diffusion occur at different layers. The turbulence structure is strongly anisotropic at the bottom region and near the outer layer, with a decrease in anisotropy observed with an increase in roughness spacing.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

A monitoring method of hull structural bending and torsional moment

Meng Zhang, Lianghui Sun, Yaoguo Xie

Summary: The research proposes a method for online identification of wave bending and torsional moment in hull structures. For structures without large openings, the method optimizes sensor positions and establishes a mathematical model to improve accuracy. For structures with large openings, a joint dual-section monitoring method is proposed to simultaneously identify bending and torsional moments in multiple key cross sections.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Study on the dynamic characteristics of pile wharves subjected to underwater explosion

Longming Chen, Shutao Li, Yeqing Chen, Dong Guo, Wanli Wei, Qiushi Yan

Summary: This study investigated the dynamic response characteristics and damage modes of pile wharves subjected to underwater explosions. The results showed that the main damaged components of the pile wharf were the piles, and inclined piles had a higher probability of moderate or more significant damage compared to vertical piles. The study also suggested that replacing inclined piles with alternative optimized structures benefits the blast resistance of pile wharves.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

A real-time wave prediction in directional wave fields: Strategies for accurate continuous prediction in time

I. -C Kim, G. Ducrozet, V. Leroy, F. Bonnefoy, Y. Perignon, S. Bourguignon

Summary: Previous research focused on the accuracy and efficiency of short-term wave fields in specific prediction zones, while we developed algorithms for continuous wave prediction based on the practical prediction zone and discussed important time factors and strategies to reduce computational costs.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Experimental study on the slamming pressure distribution of a 3D stern model entering water with pitch angles

Hang Xie, Xianglin Dai, Fang Liu, Xinyu Liu

Summary: This study investigates the load characteristics of a three-dimensional stern model with pitch angle through a drop test, and reveals complex characteristics of pressure distribution near the stern shaft. The study also shows that the vibration characteristics of the load are influenced by the drop height and pitch angle, with the drop height having a greater effect on the high-frequency components.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Influence of blocking ratio on hydrodynamic force on deep-water pier under earthquake

Hangyuan Zhang, Wanli Yang, Dewen Liu, Xiaokun Geng, Wangyu Dai, Yuzhi Zhang

Summary: The deep-water bridge is more vulnerable to earthquake damage than the bridge standing in air. The larger blocking ratio has a significant impact on the added mass coefficient, which requires further comprehensive study. The generation mechanism of block effect is analyzed using numerical simulation software ANSYS Fluent. The results show that the recirculation zone with focus reduces the pressure on the back surface of the cylinder, resulting in the peak value of in-line force not occurring synchronously with the peak value of acceleration. The change in position and intensity of the recirculation zone with focus, as well as the change in water flow around the cylinder surface, are identified as the generation mechanism of the block effect, which has a 10% influence on the hydrodynamic force. The changing rule of the added mass coefficient with blocking ratio is discussed in detail, and a modification approach to the current added mass coefficient calculation method is suggested. Physical experiments are conducted to validate the modification approach, and the results show that it is accurate and can be used in further study and real practice.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Flow past rotating cylinders using deterministic vortex method

Golnesa Karimi-Zindashti, Ozgur Kurc

Summary: This study examines the performance of an in-house code utilizing a deterministic vortex method on the rotation of circular and square cylinders. The results show that rotational motion reduces drag forces, suppresses fluctuating forces, and increases lift forces. The code accurately predicts vortex shedding suppression and identifies the emergence of near-field wakes in the flow over rotating square cylinders.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

A dynamic simulation tool for ship's response during damage-generated compartment flooding

George Dafermos, George Zaraphonitis

Summary: The survivability of damaged ships is of great importance and the regulatory framework is constantly updated. The introduction of the probabilistic damage stability framework has rationalized the assessment procedure. Flooding simulation tools can be used to investigate the dynamic response of damaged ships.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

A real-time drilling parameters optimization method for offshore large-scale cluster extended reach drilling based on intelligent optimization algorithm and machine learning

Xuyue Chen, Xu Du, Chengkai Weng, Jin Yang, Deli Gao, Dongyu Su, Gan Wang

Summary: This paper proposes a real-time drilling parameters optimization method for offshore large-scale cluster extended reach drilling based on intelligent optimization algorithm and machine learning. By establishing a ROP model with long short-term memory neurons, and combining genetic algorithm, differential evolution algorithm, and particle swarm algorithm, the method achieves real-time optimization of drilling parameters and significantly improves the ROP.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Dynamics of a moored submerged floating tunnel under tsunami waves

Sung-Jae Kim, Chungkuk Jin, MooHyun Kim

Summary: This study investigates the dynamic behavior of a moored submerged floating tunnel (SFT) under tsunami-like waves through numerical simulations and sensitivity tests. The results show that design parameters significantly affect the dynamics of the SFT system and mooring tensions, with shorter-duration and higher-elevation tsunamis having a greater impact.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)

Article Engineering, Marine

Environmental contours of sea states by the I-FORM approach derived with the Burr-Lognormal statistical model

G. Clarindo, C. Guedes Soares

Summary: Environmental contours are constructed using the Inverse-First Order Reliability Method based on return periods. The paper proposes the use of the Burr distribution to model the marginal distribution of long-term significant wave heights. The newly implemented scheme results in different environmental contours compared to the reference approach.

OCEAN ENGINEERING (2024)