Article
Construction & Building Technology
Saad Alshihri, Khalid Al-Gahtani, Abdulmohsen Almohsen
Summary: Saudi Arabia's vision 2030 initiatives have prompted a rapid transformation across all sectors, particularly the construction industry. However, the industry is facing significant cost and time overruns, impacting all stakeholders. This study aims to identify and explore the influential risk factors in government-funded building construction projects in Saudi Arabia, which have experienced delays and cost overruns under a traditional procurement method. A survey was conducted among 200 experts and professionals, and the results revealed the most significant risk factors contributing to project delays and budget overruns.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Cindrela Devi Annamalaisami, Ananthanarayanan Kuppuswamy
Summary: The importance of measuring cost variance in project management is highlighted, with a taxonomy of five groups of cost overrun factors developed to help managers better understand and control cost risks.
ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING
(2021)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Wenwen Xie, Binchao Deng, Yilin Yin, Xindong Lv, Zhenhua Deng
Summary: A fuzzy model has been developed to evaluate the critical factors of cost overrun for construction projects in China by identifying, classifying and ranking these factors. Through a questionnaire survey and index calculation, project managers and decision makers can be guided to make better decisions.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Zainab Hasan Ali, Abbas M. Burhan, Murizah Kassim, Zainab Al-Khafaji
Summary: In this research, a novel cost estimation method using artificial intelligence models was developed and evaluated based on a survey of building projects in Iraq. The results showed that the method accurately estimated costs and helped decision makers select important factors in the early stages of project management.
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, Jong Seok Lee, Mark Keil, Daniel Lunn, Dirk W. Bester
Summary: This research reveals that IT projects are riskier in terms of cost than commonly assumed. The cost overruns of IT projects follow a power-law distribution, with numerous small overruns and a smaller number of extreme overruns. The interdependencies among technological components in IT systems may explain this distribution.
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Kim Wallin, Wolfram Baer
Summary: This study utilizes a non-parametric, distribution-free statistical assessment method to analyze 5 large Charpy transition curve data sets and derive optimum fitting equations for smaller data sets. The method combines rank probability and binomial probability analysis to improve the original method and eliminate bias. However, it is not suitable as a standard method due to the requirement of a large number of data points. Nevertheless, it serves as an ideal research tool for examining the shape and scatter of transition curves. Based on the assessment, several recommendations for transition curve fitting can be made.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSELS AND PIPING
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Wangyuyang Zhai, Zhoufeng Wang, Youcan Feng, Lijun Xue, Zhenjie Ma, Lin Tian, Hongliang Sun
Summary: The choice of using the complete time series or the wet-day series for rain analyses has an unclear impact on flood planning and infrastructure designs. This study found that the Pearson III and PBF probability distribution functions established from the complete time series were more accurate in fitting with consecutive observations compared to those built from the wet-day-only series. Therefore, it is recommended to use the complete daily series for frequency analysis in flood planning and infrastructure designs.
Article
Engineering, Mechanical
Jiazeng Cao, Tao Wang, Mao Sheng, Yingying Huang, Pinqiang Mo, Guoqing Zhou
Summary: This paper presents a modeling method for joint probability distribution based on multidimensional Gaussian copula for the uncertainty analysis of mechanical strength parameters in geotechnical engineering. Through analyzing measurement data of coal seam roof strength parameters from 24 coal mines in China, the paper evaluates the fitting effects and simulation errors of different copula functions and discusses the impact of different construction methods for multidimensional Gaussian copulas. The results show that the multi-dimensional Gaussian copula joint distribution model has advantages in characterizing the uncertainty of relevant parameters, providing an effective approach for studying the uncertainty of coal mine strength parameters.
PROBABILISTIC ENGINEERING MECHANICS
(2023)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Ali Foroutan Mirhosseini, Kelly Pitera, James Odeck, Morten Welde
Summary: This study investigates the factors affecting the cost performance of large-scale road projects in Norway. The results show that factors such as local wishes, defective estimations, and long processing times have the most impact on cost increases during the planning phase, while scope changes, market conditions, and unforeseen ground conditions are the most influential parameters in the construction phase. External related factors also play a significant role in cost overrun during the construction phase.
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Jean-Paul Paquin, Pierre-Paul Morin, Annick Lambert, Tamas Koplyay
Summary: This paper proposes a coherent risk measure called the project expected cost overrun (ECO) to assess contingency reserves for project cost overruns. The ECO metric is obtained by calculating the tail expectation of the project cost probability distribution, measuring the average value of project costs exceeding the project cost baseline at any significance level. A closed-form solution to the ECO risk measure is derived under the assumption of a normal probability distribution.
JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Sou-Sen Leu, Kuang-Jen Huang, Cathy Chang-Wei Hung, Pei-Lin Wu
Summary: A network-like bridge model was established to evaluate the root causes of cost overruns in steel building projects. The model used design, manufacturing, construction, and interface checklists to assess their influences through a Bayesian network. The study identified design management and interface integration as the main root causes of cost overruns in steel building projects.
ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECTURAL MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Sou-Sen Leu, Yanni Liu, Pei-Lin Wu
Summary: Construction project cost overrun is a common problem in the industry, with an average increase of approximately 33% in project costs. Previous research on cost overruns relies on historical data, but real-time project cost data that consider project characteristics and trends are more reliable for forecasting. This paper proposes a real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model to predict cost overrun risk based on project-owned cost performance data and corrective actions. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for cost overrun events and uses a particle filter to run simulations. Validation results using a building project in Taiwan show that the model's posterior probabilities are highly consistent with real construction project cost overrun ratios. The proposed model can provide early alerts of cost overruns and effective cost management plans to mitigate the frequency of cost overruns.
Article
Engineering, Civil
Mitthan Lal Kansal, Sanchit Saran Agarwal
Summary: This study proposes an expert fuzzy-based system for assessing the impact of uncertainties on time and cost overrun in hydropower projects. Bayesian network analysis and fuzzy inference system are utilized to incorporate expert opinions and decision maker's approaches. The methodology is demonstrated using a specific hydroelectric project in India, and the results indicate the range of time and cost overruns under optimistic and pessimistic conditions.
ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Shima Amini, Alireza Rezvani, Mohsen Tabassi, Seyed Saeed Malek Sadati
Summary: This research aims to investigate the causes of cost overrun in Iranian construction projects and review the findings of similar studies conducted in Asian countries. The results show that poor site management, improper planning, fluctuation of prices of materials, lack of experience, and poor economic condition are the critical reasons for cost overrun in Iranian construction projects. These findings can provide insights into the complexity of the construction industry in different periods and help minimize the risk of cost overrun.
ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECTURAL MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Business
Magne Jorgensen, Morten Welde, Torleif Halkjelsvik
Summary: Evaluation of cost estimates should be fair and incentivize accuracy. However, current evaluation measures fail to reward the most accurate cost estimates. To address this issue, we propose the use of probabilistic cost estimates and provide guidelines for evaluating such estimates. An analysis of 69 large Norwegian governmental projects demonstrates the accuracy and lack of bias in the P50 estimates, as well as the calibration of prediction intervals. However, the cost prediction intervals do not provide informative differences in cost uncertainty, thus limiting their usefulness.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Peter E. D. Love, Jane Matthews, Lavagnon A. Ika, Pauline Teo, Weili Fang, John Morrison
Summary: This paper suggests the need for construction organizations to establish an error management culture to reduce rework and support lean thinking. It emphasizes the importance of leadership, psychological safety, and coaching in cultivating a culture that accepts errors and focuses on mitigating their consequences. The contributions of this paper include a new theoretical foundation grounded in Quality-II and practical suggestions based on real experiences to monitor and anticipate rework in construction.
PRODUCTION PLANNING & CONTROL
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Qiqi Zhang, Cong Xue, Xing Su, Peng Zhou, Xiangyu Wang, Jiansong Zhang
Summary: Named Entity Recognition (NER) plays a crucial role in construction management. This study introduces a NER method for Chinese construction documents based on Conditional Random Field (CRF). By utilizing a corpus design pipeline and a CRF model, this method successfully identifies named entities and improves construction management efficiency.
FRONTIERS OF ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence
Weili Fang, Yixiao Shao, Peter E. D. Love, Timo Hartmann, Wenli Liu
Summary: When monitoring safety levels in deep pit foundations using sensors, the extracted time series data often contain anomalies and noise, which hinders the assessment of risks. In this research, we propose a hybrid smart data approach that combines Extended Isolation Forest and Variational Mode Decomposition models to detect anomalies and de-noise the data effectively. Our approach is validated using real-life sensor data from a deep pit foundation project and achieves a root mean square error of 0.0389 and a signal-to-noise ratio of 24.09 for anomaly detection. Overall, our smart data approach enables improved decision-making and management of safety risks.
ADVANCED ENGINEERING INFORMATICS
(2023)
Article
Business
Regis Signor, Pablo Ballesteros-Perez, Peter E. D. Love
Summary: This article presents an improved method for detecting collusion, which has been validated using data from the Brazilian Federal Police. The method can be combined with other detection methods to enhance accuracy and is valuable for public and private sector procurement authorities as well as law enforcement agencies.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Business
Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jane Matthews, Weili Fang, Brad Carey
Summary: This article examines the paradoxical tensions between quality and safety in construction organizations and projects, proposing a dualistic approach to balance these competing demands. Managers are advised to adopt ambidexterity in order to optimize both quality and safety, while managing the tensions of error prevention and error management.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Peter E. D. Love, Jane Matthews
Summary: Despite extensive research, construction organizations still struggle to reduce rework. This paper presents a longitudinal study that examines rework causation in a transport megaproject using a sense-making lens. The study finds that rework often arises from hold-ups caused by misunderstandings, misinterpretations, role ambiguity, and breakdowns in communications and interactions between project participants. The research provides a nuanced understanding of errors and rework, offering a new theoretical framing for understanding rework causation in construction.
JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Derek H. T. Walker, Peter E. D. Love, Jane Matthews
Summary: Collaboration is crucial in program alliances, and the 'pain-gain share' regime serves as an incentive for teamwork and trust. However, the value and maintenance of dialogue for superior project outcomes in program alliances is not well understood. In this paper, we use a sense-making lens to explore the value of effective dialogue in two infrastructure projects. Our findings show that effective dialogue mitigated issues like rework, as participants shared a common purpose. This paper contributes by providing new value principles for dialogue in program alliances and empirical evidence for practitioners in a alliance delivery strategy.
PRODUCTION PLANNING & CONTROL
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Wenli Liu, Ang Li, Weili Fang, Peter E. D. Love, Timo Hartmann, Hanbin Luo
Summary: This study proposes a hybrid data-driven model that effectively and accurately quantifies the risks of tunnel-induced ground settlement under uncertain parameters in complex geological conditions, by considering prior domain knowledge. The model incorporates a deep neural network for ground settlement prediction, physical knowledge, and a Markov-chain-based importance sampling for settlement reliability analysis. Evaluation using the San-yang Road tunnel project in Wuhan, China, demonstrates the model's ability to accurately predict tunnel-induced ground settlement and quantify failure probability for geotechnical reliability under uncertain parameters.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2023)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jeff K. Pinto
Summary: Fast-and-frugal heuristics play an important role in decision-making, providing better outcomes than statistical models in uncertain and complex settings or with limited samples. However, they have not been adequately studied in the construction literature. This paper aims to raise awareness about the importance of fast-and-frugal heuristics and suggests the need for research to develop an adaptive toolbox of ecologically rational heuristics for decision-making in construction. The paper contributes by challenging reliance on statistical approaches under uncertainty and proposing the use of fast-and-frugal heuristics for decision-making.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Business
Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jane Matthews, Weili Fang
Summary: This article explores the background and significance of understanding cost deviations in large-scale transport projects. By comparing two light rail transit systems and a road project, it examines the impact of procurement approaches and worldviews on project cost performance. The research highlights the uncertainty associated with cost assessment and calls for the use of standardized definitions and terminologies.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Peter E. D. Love, Lavagnon A. Ika, Jeffrey K. Pinto
Summary: This article introduces a method for estimating cost contingency in large-scale transport projects called smart heuristics. Smart heuristics are simple decision strategies that are superior to statistical reasoning when dealing with uncertainty. The article sets forth a research agenda for building and using smart heuristics and identifies methodological considerations for adapting and discovering new heuristics in the contingency estimation process.
PRODUCTION PLANNING & CONTROL
(2023)
Article
Construction & Building Technology
Peter E. D. Love, Jane Matthews, Stuart R. Porter, Brad Carey, Weili Fang
Summary: This paper introduces a new paradigm, Quality II, for managing and learning how to handle errors in construction. By incorporating emerging best practices in construction and contemporary safety developments, the Quality II paradigm effectively reduces rework and improves project performance and profitability for construction organizations.
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Business
Regis Signor, Peter E. D. Love, Pablo Ballesteros-Perez
Summary: This paper analyzes the key criteria for developing a reference scenario for detecting bid rigging and presents a procedure for composing robust reference scenarios. Using data from Brazil and testing its generalizability in four countries and two auction formats, the research aims to assist public agencies in detecting and avoiding bid rigging.
CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Wenli Liu, Fenghua Liu, Weili Fang, Peter E. D. Love
Summary: This paper addresses the issue of interpretability and transparency in machine learning models used for evaluating safety risks in tunnel construction. By utilizing the concept of 'eXplainable AI' (XAI) and causal discovery and reasoning, the authors develop a method to analyze and interpret geotechnical risks in tunnel construction. The proposed approach includes a sparse nonparametric and nonlinear directed acyclic diagram (DAG), a multiple linear regression model, and a probability-based reasoning model. The feasibility and effectiveness of the approach are validated through a case study on a tunnel project in Wuhan, China, showing accurate explanation of data-driven risk assessment results.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
(2024)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Li Hong, Xiangyu Wang, Wengang Zhang
Summary: This study presents an advanced reliability-based robust geotechnical design method for braced excavation, which considers multiple failures and uncertainty of statistical information. It demonstrates the effectiveness of the method through the application of two and three-objective optimization models. The study also discusses the performance of optimization algorithms and the application of multiple-objective models.
