Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
F. M. Palmeiro, J. Garcia-Serrano, P. Ruggieri, L. Batte, S. Gualdi
Summary: Using reanalysis data and models, this study examines how El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in terms of frequency, seasonal cycle and preconditioning. The study finds that winters with SSWs are more common than winters without SSWs, regardless of El Nino or La Nina occurrence. The models show a linear ENSO-SSW relationship, with more SSWs during El Nino and less during La Nina compared to neutral conditions. The main precursor of SSWs is an anomalous wave-like pattern over Eurasia, with a dominant wavenumber 1 component for El Nino and an enhanced wavenumber 2 component for La Nina.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kamilya Yessimbet, Theodore G. G. Shepherd, Albert C. C. Osso, Andrea K. K. Steiner
Summary: In this study, a causal inference-based framework is applied to investigate and quantify the causal relationships between blocking, upward wave-activity fluxes, and stratospheric polar vortex variability using reanalysis data. The results show that the influence of blocking on the polar vortex is mediated by upward wave-activity fluxes, but the causal pathway is not straightforward. The vortex-strengthening effect of west Pacific blocking on lower stratospheric wave-activity fluxes is only partially mediated by upper tropospheric wave-activity fluxes. Additionally, two-thirds of the effect of upper tropospheric wave-activity fluxes on polar vortex variability is mediated by lower stratospheric wave-activity fluxes. Sudden stratospheric warmings cannot be entirely explained by upward wave-activity fluxes.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
N. M. Pedatella, J. H. Richter, J. Edwards, A. A. Glanville
Summary: The study shows that CESM2(WACCM6) hindcasts can accurately predict the changes in the middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere during SSWs, but underestimate the strength of the SSW. The ability to predict changes such as mesosphere cooling and enhanced semidiurnal tide during SSWs indicates potential for improved multi-day space weather forecasting.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Blanca Ayarzaguena, Elisa Manzini, Natalia Calvo, Daniela Matei
Summary: Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are key phenomena of wintertime boreal stratospheric variability, with the frequency and impact of SSWs modulated by Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). Research shows that PDV has a strong influence on SSW occurrence, with a higher frequency during the positive phase of PDV, while AMV primarily affects the tropospheric response to SSWs, aiding in predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.
ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kohei Yoshida, Ryo Mizuta
Summary: The study found that sudden stratospheric warmings mainly result in a decrease in tropical stratospheric temperature and static stability, a slight but significant enhancement in tropical cyclone intensity and accumulated cyclone energy, and an increase in the relative probability of the largest ACE anomalies.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jessica Oehrlein, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Lantao Sun, Clara Deser
Summary: The study found that the surface response in the North Atlantic and European regions following sudden stratospheric warmings is consistent, but the uncertainty is mainly due to independent tropospheric variability.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ian P. White, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Judah Cohen, Martin Jucker, Jian Rao
Summary: This study found that the longer-term surface response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is similar for displacements and splits, but significant differences exist at shorter lags. Displacements lead to stronger stratospheric temperature anomalies than splits, however, both types of SSW yield similar magnitude tropospheric responses. The classification of SSW based on vortex morphology may be helpful for subseasonal weather prediction but less effective for seasonal timescales.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Anna S. Yasyukevich, Marina A. Chernigovskaya, Boris G. Shpynev, Denis S. Khabituev, Yury V. Yasyukevich
Summary: This study analyzed the characteristics of small-scale wave disturbances during the evolution and transformation of the jet stream in the winter stratosphere and lower mesosphere of the northern hemisphere. The results showed that continuous generation of these disturbances occurs during quiet geomagnetic winter periods in the region of a steady jet stream. Sudden stratospheric warming events led to the intensification and emergence of larger-scale disturbances. However, after the peak of the stratospheric warming and during the recovery of the stratosphere circulation, there was reduced generation of wave disturbances.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Qibo Xu, Wen Chen, Lei Song
Summary: Height-time domain EOF analysis is used to extract dominant variations in the evolution of SSWs. Different types of SSWs, characterized by polar vortex states and warming intensities, have varying impacts on the surface. This analysis can aid in predicting the tropospheric response following SSWs.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lesley J. Gray, Hua Lu, Matthew J. Brown, Jeff R. Knight, Martin B. Andrews
Summary: This study examines the influence of the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) on major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), using the 2008/2009 SSW as a case-study. The research finds that the westerly-to-easterly phase transition of the SAO in the lower mesosphere is a key factor in determining the timing of SSWs. The study also shows a significant correlation between the timing of SSWs and the equinoctial westerly-to-easterly phase transition in early winter, suggesting that accurate simulation of SAO phase transitions and knowledge of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) phase can improve seasonal forecast skill.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ruhua Zhang, Wen Zhou, Wenshou Tian, Yue Zhang, Zhenchen Liu, Paxson K. Y. Cheung
Summary: This study re-examines the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the winter stratospheric polar vortex intensity (PVI) and finds that the negative correlation between ENSO and PVI has weakened in recent decades and is no longer statistically significant. This weakening is associated with changes in wave-1 fluxes entering the stratosphere.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Dvir Chwat, Chaim Garfinkel, Wen Chen, Jian Rao
Summary: The predictability of Northern Hemisphere SSW events was investigated using 10 S2S forecast models. Four factors, including a preconditioned vortex, active Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, and vortex morphology, were found to distinguish SSWs with higher predictability. Although the effects were not statistically significant at the individual level, they collectively explained 40% of the inter-event spread in SSW predictability.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
M. Jones, L. P. Goncharenko, S. E. McDonald, K. A. Zawdie, J. Tate, F. Gasperini, N. M. Pedatella, D. P. Drob, J. P. McCormack
Summary: This study investigates the driving factors behind the deep nighttime ionospheric hole observed in the American sector during the January 2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). By conducting numerical experiments and simulations, it is demonstrated that the ionospheric hole resulted from altered thermospheric meridional winds and plasma motion along magnetic field lines. Similar ionospheric depletions were observed during the January-February 2010 SSW. The recent January 2021 SSW also showed a deep nighttime ionospheric depletion driven by modified meridional winds in the thermosphere.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jason C. Furtado, Judah Cohen, Emily J. Becker, Dan C. Collins
Summary: The study finds that the NMME Phase-2 models have mixed performance in capturing the characteristics of NAM and its teleconnections, with biases apparent in dominant nodes of the tropospheric NAM pattern, storm tracks in the Atlantic, and intraseasonal variability of the NH stratospheric polar vortex. The research also investigates the models' ability to simulate the life cycle of SSW events, revealing issues such as inconsistent geopotential height precursor fields, weaker-than-observed vertical wave propagation before SSW events, and incorrect surface temperature regimes following the events.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mikhail Vokhmyanin, Timo Asikainen, Antti Salminen, Kalevi Mursula
Summary: The polar vortex, a strong jet of westerly wind in the polar stratosphere, sometimes experiences a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) due to planetary waves disrupting the vortex. This research shows that the probability of SSWs depends on a combination of geomagnetic and solar activity and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Using logistic regression models, the study found that SSWs are more likely to occur when early-winter geomagnetic activity is low, solar activity is high, and QBO winds are easterly or westerly. These findings contribute to improving the seasonal predictability of wintertime weather using solar and geomagnetic activity information.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ruben Varela, Laura Rodriguez-Diaz, David Barriopedro, Maria Teresa de Castro, Xurxo Costoya, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Moncho Gomez-Gesteira
Summary: The study found that the hot days season in the Middle East and North Africa region will see an asymmetric lengthening, extending more into spring than autumn. It is projected that the length of the extreme season in the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf will increase by 100 to 120 days, resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. M. Vicente-Serrano, R. Garcia-Herrera, D. Pena-Angulo, M. Tomas-Burguera, F. Dominguez-Castro, I Noguera, N. Calvo, C. Murphy, R. Nieto, L. Gimeno, J. M. Gutierrez, C. Azorin-Molina, A. El Kenawy
Summary: This study provides a long-term global assessment of precipitation trends from 1891 to 2014 using data from station-based gridded datasets and climate models. Results show that only a few regions exhibit statistically significant differences in precipitation trends between observations and models, mostly due to strong interannual variability. The modeling groups fail to accurately reproduce the spatial patterns of annual precipitation trends.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jose M. Garrido-Perez, Carlos Ordonez, David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jordan L. Schnell, Daniel E. Horton
Summary: The storyline approach is applied to summer air stagnation projections for Europe and the United States. The results show that stagnation will increase in both regions, but the magnitude and spatial distribution of the changes vary substantially across models.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Albeht Rodriguez Vega, Juan Carlos Antuna-Marrero, David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Victoria E. Cachorro Revilla, Angel de Frutos Baraja, Juan Carlos Antuna-Sanchez
Summary: This study presents a climatological analysis of aerosols in the Caribbean Sea, showing variations in aerosol types and quantities based on season and geographical location. Atmospheric circulation and aerosol transport play a significant role in shaping the distribution of aerosols. Marine aerosols and dust are the dominant types, originating mainly from the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fernando Jaume-Santero, David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jurg Luterbacher
Summary: The main modes of atmospheric variability have a significant influence on weather and climate at different scales. However, due to limited availability of observations, particularly over the oceans, their past changes and variability are not well constrained. This study presents a reconstructed dataset of North Atlantic sea level pressure since 1750 using an optimized method, which brings significant improvements compared to non-optimized reconstructions, especially in poorly sampled oceanic regions.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Correction
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alexander Robinson, Jascha Lehmann, David Barriopedro, Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alexander Robinson, Jascha Lehmann, David Barriopedro, Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou
Summary: Over the past decade, global warming of 0.25 degrees Celsius has led to the emergence of heat extremes and continued increases in record rainfall extremes worldwide. Tropical regions, which typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to experience the strongest increase in extremes.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jaeyoung Hwang, Seok-Woo Son, Patrick Martineau, David Barriopedro
Summary: This study investigates the impacts of atmospheric blockings on wintertime surface air temperature in East Asia using three blocking indices. It finds that both Ural and Okhotsk blockings lead to cold anomalies in East Asia, but through slightly different mechanisms.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jacob W. Maddison, Marta Abalos, David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, Jose M. Garrido-Perez, Carlos Ordonez, Isla R. Simpson
Summary: Air pollution is a significant threat to human health, and pollutant concentrations can reach high levels when weather conditions permit. Current global circulation models (GCMs) do not fully represent the scales and processes associated with pollutant concentrations. Therefore, air stagnation is often used as a proxy for pollution events, but its representation in GCMs can introduce uncertainties in projecting air stagnation trends.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
David Barriopedro, Blanca Ayarzaguena, Marina Garcia-Burgos, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera
Summary: This study presents a comprehensive characterization of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) using daily parameters based on low-tropospheric zonal wind data. The variability and complex configurations of the EDJ beyond latitude and intensity are described, allowing for a better understanding of its structure and influence on European climate. The variations in EDJ parameters reflect distinctive patterns of eddy forcing and wave breaking, with anticyclonic eddies playing a major role in shaping the EDJ structure.
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
D. Barriopedro, R. Garcia-Herrera, C. Ordonez, D. G. Miralles, S. Salcedo-Sanz
Summary: Heat waves have significant socioeconomic and environmental impacts, and their frequency, intensity, and duration are projected to increase with global warming. While some thermodynamic processes have been identified, there is still a lack of understanding regarding dynamical aspects, regional forcings, and feedbacks, as well as their future changes.
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sonia Jerez, David Barriopedro, Alejandro Garcia-Lopez, Raquel Lorente-Plazas, Andres M. Somoza, Marco Turco, Judit Carrillo, Ricardo M. Trigo
Summary: The CLIMAX model has been developed to address the challenge of integrating wind and solar photovoltaic facilities in the energy mix. By exploiting their complementarity, the model optimizes the siting of the power units and the shares of each technology to minimize production volatility while ensuring a certain supply. Results show that optimal siting can reduce the standard deviation of monthly anomalies in total wind-plus-solar power generation by up to 20%.
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. W. Maddison, B. Ayarzagueena, D. Barriopedro, R. Garcia-Herrera
Summary: Air stagnation refers to extended periods of stable weather conditions that can lead to the accumulation of pollutants. A new multiparametric jet diagnostic is used to evaluate the influence of the jet stream on air stagnation in Europe, providing a more complete understanding of jet stream characteristics. The study reveals significant influences of the jet stream on regional stagnation and uncovers connections beyond latitude. The findings highlight the importance of the jet's location and variability in statistical models of air stagnation.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jose M. Garrido-Perez, Ricardo Garcia-Herrera, David Barriopedro, Carlos Ordonez
Summary: Shifting summer holidays to the hottest period in Spain can mitigate the negative effects of high temperatures, reducing labor productivity loss, electricity demand, and ozone concentrations. Non-linear relationships between temperature and its impacts could lead to enhanced differences between time periods with global warming.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, David Barriopedro, Ricardo M. Trigo, Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Marc Oliva
Summary: In February 2020, the Antarctic Peninsula experienced anomalously warm temperatures and one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded, with the intensity of the heatwave increasing by approximately 25% compared to the past, largely due to the long-term warming of the Antarctic Peninsula.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
