Physical Mechanisms Regulating Summertime Rainfall over Northwestern Australia

Summertime (December-February) rainfall over northwestern Australia has increased significantly since the middle of the twentieth century. As a prerequisite to understanding the observed trend, this investigation examines the broad characteristics of rainfall and identifies the physical mechanisms by which rainfall in the region is initiated. This is achieved using a combination of in situ, spaceborne, and numerical reanalysis datasets. Hourly pluviograph data and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42 dataset show distinctly different diurnal cycles of rainfall in different geographical subregions; near the coast, rainfall rates peak in the midafternoon, whereas inland (near the maximum rainfall trend) the rainfall rate is largest overnight. These data also indicate that most of the summertime rain falls in events lasting 2-5 days. Analysis of the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) demonstrates that convergence into the continental heat low controls the diurnal cycle of rainfall but cannot explain the synoptic variability. Composites of wet and dry conditions from ERA-Interim expose synoptic-scale differences in the environmental flow. Prior to rain falling in the interior of northwestern Australia, there is a distinct shift in the origins of low-level air parcels, such that air with high convective available potential energy is advected from the tropical maritime regions, rather than from over the continent. Preliminary analysis suggests that these flow changes may be linked to transient synoptic disturbances such as midlatitude cyclones and monsoon lows. Rather than reflecting a large-scale change in the ocean state, these results imply that the observed increase in rainfall may be linked more closely to changes in the synoptic weather systems.