Causes of Reduced North Atlantic Storm Activity in a CAM3 Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum

The aim of this paper is to determine how an atmosphere with enhanced mean-state baroclinity can support weaker baroclinic wave activity than an atmosphere with weak mean-state baroclinity. As a case study, a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model simulation previously documented to have reduced baroclinic storm activity, relative to the modern-day climate (simulated by the same model), despite having an enhanced midlatitude temperature gradient, is considered. Several candidate mechanisms are evaluated to explain this apparent paradox. A linear stability analysis is first performed on the jet in the modern-day and the LGM simulation; the latter has relatively strong barotropic velocity shear. It was found that the LGM mean state is more unstable to baroclinic disturbances than the modern-day mean state, although the three-dimensional jet structure does stabilize the LGM jet relative to the Eady growth rate. Next, feature tracking was used to assess the storm track seeding and temporal growth of disturbances. It was found that the reduction in LGM eddy activity, relative to the modern-day eddy activity, is due to the smaller magnitude of the upper-level storms entering the North Atlantic domain in the LGM. Although the LGM storms do grow more rapidly in the North Atlantic than their modern-day counterparts, the storminess in the LGM is reduced because storms seeding the region of enhanced baroclinity are weaker.