Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RADIATION ONCOLOGY BIOLOGY PHYSICS
Volume 84, Issue 1, Pages E123-E129Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2012.02.022
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Funding
- ALLEGRO (eArLy and Late hEalth risks to normal/healthy tissues from the use of existing and emerGing techniques for RadiatiOn therapy) project
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Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.
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