Fuzzy Delphi method for evaluating hydrogen production technologies

The purpose of this research is to establish an evaluation model for selecting the most appropriate technology for development in Taiwan, based on 14 evaluation criteria. Due to the inherent uncertainty and imprecision associated with the mapping of decision makers' perception to crisp values, linguistic variables are used to assess the weights of the criteria and the ratings of each technology with respect to each criterion. The criteria weights and technology ratings are collected through a seven-point linguistic scale using a Delphi questionnaire. The linguistic scores are then converted into fuzzy numbers, and a consensus of the decision makers' opinions on weights and ratings is mathematically derived using fuzzy Delphi methodology. We have used the model to evaluate seven different hydrogen production technologies. The results indicate that hydrogen production via electrolysis by wind power and that via electrolysis by photovoltaic electricity are the two technologies that should be chosen for further development. Copyright (C) 2011, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.