Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FOOD MICROBIOLOGY
Volume 131, Issue 2-3, Pages 128-137Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.02.007
Keywords
Quantitative risk assessment; Smallgoods; Processed meat; Ham; Listeria monocytogenes; Australia
Categories
Funding
- Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA)
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Listeria monocytogenes is a food-borne pathogen that can contaminate processed meats and has caused outbreaks in several nations in which processed meats were the vehicle. Due to its ecology, the control of this organism in ready-to-eat meats is difficult. As a first step in improving risk management for this product: pathogen pair in Australia, a stochastic simulation model to predict the numbers of L monocyto,genes likely to be consumed in those products under a wide range of scenarios was developed. The predictions are based on data describing initial contamination levels of both lactic acid bacteria and L monocytogenes, product formulation, times and temperatures of distribution and storage prior to consumption, and consumption patterns. The model was used to estimate the probable numbers of cases of listeriosis due to processed meats in Australia per year. The model predicted that processed meats could be responsible for up to similar to 40% of cases of listeriosis in Australia, a level considered credible by comparison with available epidemiological data. The reliability of the model, as well as data gaps and further research needs, is discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
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