Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COAL GEOLOGY
Volume 99, Issue -, Pages 16-26Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.coal.2012.05.004
Keywords
Coalbed methane resources; Uncertainty analysis; Karst collapsing column; Reservoir modelling
Categories
Funding
- Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Australia
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) [CUGL100249]
- Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies
- [TPR-2010-15]
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This paper presents a stochastic analysis of coalbed methane (CBM) resources for a coal seam in southeast Qinshui Basin, China. Log and laboratory data are used to predict the coal thickness, coal ash content and coal gas content. Using reservoir modelling, the distributions of the karst collapse column (KCC), coal seam thickness, coal quality and coal gas content are generated. The convergent interpolation and sequential Gaussian simulation methods are used to model the surface and structure of the coal seam. The structural models are determined by the surface structure and coal seam thickness. Based on the structural models, the coal and KCC are converted to two fades and their distributions are obtained using object modelling. The coal density distributions are simulated based on each facies model using the sequential Gaussian simulation. Finally, different realisations are used to study CBM resources. The results show that the heterogeneities in coal seam thickness and coal quality lead to significant uncertainty in estimating CBM resources. A model with lower heterogeneity gives a greater CBM resource. The distributions of KCC, coal seam thickness, coal quality and gas content are the main sources for uncertainty in CBM resource estimation. The density variogram and top structure contribute less to the uncertainty in CBM resources. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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