4.8 Article

Individual Decision Making Can Drive Epidemics: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Study

Journal

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON FUZZY SYSTEMS
Volume 22, Issue 2, Pages 264-273

Publisher

IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TFUZZ.2013.2251638

Keywords

Agent-based modeling; complex networks; fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs); infectious diseases; influenza A [H1N1]; unsupervised learning

Funding

  1. China National Scientific Fund [71373282, 91324014, 91024030]
  2. European DynaNets [233847]
  3. Leading Scientist Program of the Government of the Russian Federation [11.G34.31.0019]
  4. Complexity and the FET-Proactive Topology Driven Methods for Complex Systems Project
  5. European Commission [FP7-ICT-318121]
  6. ViroLab [49]

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Existing studies on the propagation of infectious diseases have not sufficiently considered the uncertainties that are related to individual behavior and its influence on individual decision making to prevent infections, even though it is well known that changes in behavior can lead to variations in the macrodynamics of the spread of infectious diseases. These influencing factors can be categorized into emotion-related and cognition-related components. We present a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) denotative model to describe how the factors of individual emotions and cognition influence each other. We adjust the weight matrix of causal relationships between these factors by using a so-called nonlinear Hebbian learning method. Based on this FCM model, we can implement individual decision rules against possible infections for disease propagation studies. We take the simulation of influenza A [H1N1] spreading on a campus as an example. We find that individual decision making against infections (frequent washing, respirator usage, and crowd contact avoidance) can significantly decrease the at-peak number of infected patients, even when common policies, such as isolation and vaccination, are not deployed.

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