Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan D. Beverley, Matthew Collins, F. Hugo Lambert, Robin Chadwick
Summary: Research suggests that future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector will weaken, largely due to anomalous circulation changes over the North Pacific. The study also indicates that changes in forcing from equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more significant than changes in the global basic state background circulation.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Madeline McKenna, Christina Karamperidou
Summary: This study examines the relationship between Northern Hemisphere blocking events and the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) flavors of El Nino. The results show that these two El Nino flavors have different impacts on atmospheric circulation, affecting the strength and placement of the upper-level jet stream, and thus the frequency and duration of blocking events. Therefore, future investigations of blocking and ENSO-related variability should consider the different El Nino flavors.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chaim I. I. Garfinkel, Wen Chen, Yanjie Li, Chen Schwartz, Priyanka Yadav, Daniela Domeisen
Summary: Teleconnection patterns associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have impacts on weather and climate phenomena in the Pacific-North American region and beyond. However, current forecasting models show systematic biases in simulating these teleconnections, including a weak response, biased subtropical upper-level convergence and weak Rossby wave source. These biases lead to an underestimation of the impacts of MJO and ENSO on western North America.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sangwoo Lee, Hyo-Seok Park, Se-Yong Song, Sang-Wook Yeh
Summary: This study examines 40 different climate models and finds that Central Pacific El Nino events are associated with significant Arctic warming, while Eastern Pacific El Nino events are associated with cooling in the Barents-Kara Seas and Eurasian continent. These distinct Arctic and Eurasian temperature responses to two types of El Nino events are not clearly evident in reanalysis data, likely due to the small sample size of El Nino events since the satellite era.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Roxanne Ahmed, Terry Prowse, Yonas Dibike, Barrie Bonsal
Summary: This study assesses the impact of large-scale atmospheric and surface climatic conditions on spring freshets in major Arctic-draining rivers by analyzing historic daily discharges. Results show that climatic variations closely match the observed trends of increasing cold-season flows and earlier freshets. The study also finds that regulation may suppress the effects of climatic drivers on freshet volume but has no significant impact on peak freshet magnitude or timing measures.
Article
Oceanography
M. Rouault, F. S. Tomety
Summary: The study demonstrates the impact of ENSO on the Benguela Current upwelling sea surface temperature, revealing a significant weak correlation between the two particularly in the southern Benguela region with up to 8 months lag.
JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Saad Sh. Sammen, Mohammad Ehteram, S. I. Abba, R. A. Abdulkadir, Ali Najah Ahmed, Ahmed El-Shafie
Summary: Accurate stream flow quantification and prediction are crucial for basin planning and management in the face of climate change. This research developed a new predicting model using a combination of sunflower optimization and multi-layer perceptron algorithm to improve the precision of streamflow prediction in Malaysia. The MLP-SFA model outperformed other models, reducing RMSE by a significant percentage at both JSO and MDJ stations.
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Zachary J. Suriano, Gina R. Henderson, Julia Arthur, Kricket Harper, Daniel J. Leathers
Summary: Extreme snow ablation can have a significant impact on regional hydrology, affecting streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater supplies. However, there is limited understanding of the climatology and causal atmospheric forcing mechanisms behind extreme ablation events in the eastern United States. This study examines the variability of extreme ablation and river discharge events in the Susquehanna River basin over a 50-year period and identifies the synoptic weather patterns and global-scale teleconnection patterns associated with these events. The findings highlight the importance of southerly synoptic-scale flow and rain-on-snow weather types in driving extreme ablation and discharge events in the region, as well as the influence of Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and the Pacific-North American pattern on the frequency of these weather types.
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Taesam Lee, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Ousmane Seidou
Summary: The objective of this study is to compare techniques for forecasting low-frequency climate oscillation indices, with a focus on the Great Lakes system. Various time series models, including ARMA, DLM, GARCH, and NSOR, were tested for predicting the monthly ENSO and PDO indices, which have significant teleconnections with the NBS of the Great Lakes system. The aim is to forecast future water levels, ice extent, and temperature for planning and decision making. Results indicate that the DLM and GARCH models outperform others for forecasting the monthly ENSO index, while the traditional ARMA model shows good agreement with observed values for the monthly PDO index within a short lead time.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ruiqiang Ding, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Jin-Yi Yu, Tim Li, Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Yu-Heng Tseng, Xichen Li, Fei Xie, Juan Feng, Kai Ji, Xumin Li
Summary: The connection between the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events varies considerably over multidecadal timescales and is mainly controlled by the multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the NTA impact on ENSO is amplified due to strengthening of precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andrea Ficchi, Hannah Cloke, Claudia Neves, Steve Woolnough, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ervin Zsoter, Izidine Pinto, Arlindo Meque, Elisabeth Stephens
Summary: The study shows that climate variability modes in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are equally important as ENSO in driving changes in the frequency of impactful floods across Africa. Considering these climate modes could enhance seasonal predictions and better inform adaptation strategies to the changing climate in Africa.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ilya V. Serykh, Dmitry M. Sonechkin
Summary: The study investigates the predictability of El Nino and La Nina using the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) index and reveals the closest relationship between GAO and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in a range of timescales. By utilizing this relationship, El Nino and La Nina can be predicted with a lead-time of approximately 12 months.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Ly Sy Phu Nguyen, Kien Trong Nguyen, Stephen M. Griffith, Guey-Rong Sheu, Ming-Cheng Yen, Shuenn-Chin Chang, Neng-Huei Lin
Summary: The study revealed the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on gaseous elemental mercury concentrations in East Asia, especially in terms of the interannual variability of GEM concentrations. El Nino may result in weaker GEM annual cycles, increasing the instability of atmospheric mercury cycling.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Oceanography
Youjia Zou, Xiangying Xi
Summary: This study shows that the intensity of westerly winds in the western equatorial Pacific remains relatively unchanged during most El Nino events, while an eastward equatorial current near the equator plays a significant role in causing the phenomenon.
JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Matthew Collins, Boris Dewitte, Christina Karamperidou, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker, Andrea S. Taschetto, Axel Timmermann, Lixin Wu, Sang-Wook Yeh, Guojian Wang, Benjamin Ng, Fan Jia, Yun Yang, Jun Ying, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Tobias Bayr, Josephine R. Brown, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim M. Cobb, Bolan Gan, Tao Geng, Yoo-Geun Ham, Fei-Fei Jin, Hyun-Su Jo, Xichen Li, Xiaopei Lin, Shayne McGregor, Jae-Heung Park, Karl Stein, Kai Yang, Li Zhang, Wenxiu Zhong
Summary: This review discusses the global climatic implications of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and highlights projected increases in ENSO magnitude, rainfall, and sea surface temperature variability under anthropogenic warming. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding ENSO dynamics and highlights advancements in modeling and simulations to reduce uncertainties in future projections.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)