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Probability analysis in predicting creep life of power plant material using high power ultrasound

PUBLISHED June 28, 2023 (DOI: https://doi.org/10.54985/peeref.2306p1239130)



Minati Sahu1 , Arpita Ghosh2 , Jayendra Kumar3 , Shiva Nand Singh3 , Sarmishtha Palit Sagar4
  1. CSIR National Metallurgical laboratory
  2. CSIR national Metallurgical laboratory
  3. National Institute of Technology Jamshedpur
  4. CSIR National Metallurgical Laboratory

Conference / event

International Conference on Recent Advances in Materials and Manufacturing (ICRAMM 2021), November 2022 (Virtual)

Poster summary

For the non-destructive evaluation of power plant materials for various types of damage, including creep damage characterization, nonlinear ultrasonic (NLU) has been proven to be an effective method. Through a two-parameter Weibull analysis of NLU data, a method has been developed to calculate the likelihood of failure relative to creep life of power plant components. The level of damage was then calculated using Weibull distribution analysis utilizing the NLU parameter, which was measured in the same specimen at various interruptions. Additionally, the behavior of the predicted NLU parameter produced using the inverse CDF was assessed in relation to the measured value. Significant microstructural alterations, such as the creation and coalescence of microcracks, the growth and coarsening of precipitates have all been used to support this theory. Weibull distribution-based analysis demonstrated its potential as a substitute technique for extrapolating life of power plant components subject to creep deformation from NLU measurements.


P 92 steel, Creep, Non-linear ultrasonic, Weibull probability distribution, Microstructure

Research areas

Material Sciences, Physics


  1. Lai, C.D., Zhang, L. and Xie, M., 2004. Mean residual life and other properties of Weibull related bathtub shape failure rate distributions. International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering, 11(02), pp.113-132.
  2. Dieter, G.E., 1986. Mechanical Metallurgy, Mc Graw Hill Book. New York (1988).
  3. Matlack, K.H., Kim, J.Y., Jacobs, L.J. and Qu, J., 2015. Review of second harmonic generation measurement techniques for material state determination in metals. Journal of Nondestructive Evaluation, 34(1), pp.1-23.
  4. Orlova, A., Buršık, J., Kuchařová, K. and Sklenička, V., 1998. Microstructural development during high temperature creep of 9% Cr steel. Materials Science and Engineering: A, 245(1), pp.39-48


  1. DST-SERB India

Supplemental files

No data provided

Additional information

Competing interests
No competing interests were disclosed.
Data availability statement
The datasets generated during and / or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Creative Commons license
Copyright © 2023 Sahu et al. This is an open access work distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Sahu, M., Ghosh, A., Kumar, J., Singh, S., Palit Sagar, S. Probability analysis in predicting creep life of power plant material using high power ultrasound [not peer reviewed]. Peeref 2023 (poster).
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