Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Benjamin Ng, Wenju Cai, Tim Cowan, Daohua Bi
Summary: This study highlights the significant impact of internal climate variability on the diversity of El Nino phenomenon, causing considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Omid Alizadeh, Morteza Qadimi, Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Parviz Irannejad
Summary: The study analyzes the changes in El Nino events in the future under different socioeconomic scenarios, and the increase in central Pacific El Nino over the past few decades.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Fan Jia, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu, Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary: Research suggests that under high-emissions warming scenarios, the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) strengthens its impact on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to increased frequency of extreme ENSO events and improved predictability.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Madeline McKenna, Christina Karamperidou
Summary: This study examines the relationship between Northern Hemisphere blocking events and the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) flavors of El Nino. The results show that these two El Nino flavors have different impacts on atmospheric circulation, affecting the strength and placement of the upper-level jet stream, and thus the frequency and duration of blocking events. Therefore, future investigations of blocking and ENSO-related variability should consider the different El Nino flavors.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Christopher W. Callahan, Chen Chen, Maria Rugenstein, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Shuting Yang, Elisabeth J. Moyer
Summary: The impact of climate warming on ENSO amplitude is uncertain, but studies suggest that on a long-term scale, CO2 forcing dampens ENSO.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Matthew Collins, Boris Dewitte, Christina Karamperidou, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker, Andrea S. Taschetto, Axel Timmermann, Lixin Wu, Sang-Wook Yeh, Guojian Wang, Benjamin Ng, Fan Jia, Yun Yang, Jun Ying, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Tobias Bayr, Josephine R. Brown, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim M. Cobb, Bolan Gan, Tao Geng, Yoo-Geun Ham, Fei-Fei Jin, Hyun-Su Jo, Xichen Li, Xiaopei Lin, Shayne McGregor, Jae-Heung Park, Karl Stein, Kai Yang, Li Zhang, Wenxiu Zhong
Summary: This review discusses the global climatic implications of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and highlights projected increases in ENSO magnitude, rainfall, and sea surface temperature variability under anthropogenic warming. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding ENSO dynamics and highlights advancements in modeling and simulations to reduce uncertainties in future projections.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cong Guan, Feng Tian, Michael J. McPhaden, Shijian Hu, Fan Wang
Summary: Salinity anomalies in the central Pacific induce the strongest surface warming during both types of El Nino, tapering off to the east and west. The distinct sea surface salinity zonal structures between the two El Ninos amplify their difference in sea surface temperature magnitude by about 10%. Salinity effects on vertical mixing and entrainment account for the different eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Nino responses.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kaiming Hu, Gang Huang, Ping Huang, Yu Kosaka, Shang-Ping Xie
Summary: The analysis of global climate model projections shows that greenhouse gas-induced warming intensifies atmospheric variability associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This intensification is primarily due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, whereby saturation vapor pressure increases nearly exponentially with increasing temperature. The findings provide a novel theoretical constraint for ENSO changes and reduce uncertainty in the ENSO response to greenhouse warming.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Qiang Wang, Wenxiu Zhong, Song Yang, Junbin Wang, Lili Zeng, Ju Chen, Yunkai He
Summary: This study proposes new insights into the contribution of anomalous South China Sea warming to strong southern China winter rainfall. We show that the increased moisture associated with the warming South China Sea leads to increased meridional moisture transport to southern China. Particularly, during the El Nino mature winter phase, this effect works together with a weakened East Asian winter monsoon to determine increased winter rainfall over southern China.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Minghong Liu, Hong-Li Ren, Run Wang, Jieru Ma, Xin Mao
Summary: This study investigates the distinct impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation. The results show that EP El Nino and CP La Nina have opposite effects on summer precipitation in the southwestern TP, with significant decreases and increases respectively, while CP El Nino causes significant decreases in central-eastern TP. This study may deepen our understanding of ENSO impacts on TP summer precipitation and have implications for regional climate predictions.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Leishan Jiang, Tim Li, Yoo-Geun Ham
Summary: Despite a weak linear relation between the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (EA SSTA) and preceding winter El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an EA warming event is typically preceded by either an El Nino or La Nina phase. The physical mechanisms behind this asymmetric impact were investigated through observations and modeling analyses. El Nino-induced EA warming is caused by El Nino-related SSTA in the South Atlantic, while La Nina-induced EA warming is driven by westerly anomalies during the decaying spring. The asymmetric response in the South Atlantic is attributed to the differential heating strength over the central Pacific and Maritime Continent. The distinct evolutions of El Nino and La Nina also contribute to the asymmetric EA response. The study suggests that the South Atlantic SSTA and ENSO temporal evolution play crucial roles in explaining the asymmetric impacts of El Nino and La Nina on EA warming.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Samantha Stevenson, Andrew T. Wittenberg, John Fasullo, Sloan Coats, Bette Otto-Bliesner
Summary: Most future projections in CMIP5 show more frequent exceedances of the rainfall threshold during El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but these frequencies vary widely across models, leading to uncertainty in future forecasts. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, but changes to ENSO-related SST variability can greatly influence the results.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li, Ying Zhang
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a consequential climate phenomenon affecting global extreme weather events often with largescale socioeconomic impacts. Research has found that the economic damage from El Nino is far greater than the benefits from La Nina, and under greenhouse warming, increased ENSO variability leads to increased economic loss.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Li-Chiao Wang, Yu-Shen Lin
Summary: A systematic bias of the extremely westward zonal current (EWZC) was found in CMIP6 models, which affects the simulation of zonal advective feedback. This bias leads to the overestimation or underestimation of equatorial ZCA variability and the exaggerated zonal advective feedback in the Nino-4 region. This bias is crucial for a more accurate representation of central-Pacific El Nino-like pattern in CMIP6 models.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaohong Wang, Jinghao Qin, Shiyuan Zhong, Yike Yang, Qingheng Lu, Lejiang Yu
Summary: Using hourly observations of PM2.5 from a nationwide air-quality monitoring network, this study examines the differential influences of eastern Pacific El Niño and central Pacific El Niño Modoki on surface PM2.5 concentrations in different regions of China during different seasons. The study finds that the influence can be opposite during the warm season, with overwhelmingly positive PM2.5 anomalies under El Niño and negative anomalies under El Niño Modoki. In the cold season, the PM2.5 concentration is less sensitive to El Niño type, but negative anomalies are stronger and more widespread during El Niño Modoki.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Myung-Seo Koo, Kanghyun Song, Jung-Eun Esther Kim, Seok-Woo Son, Eun-Chul Chang, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Hyungjun Kim, Byung-Kwon Moon, Rokjin J. Park, Sang-Wook Yeh, Changhyun Yoo, Song-You Hong
Summary: The Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been upgraded to version 4.0, focusing on seasonal simulation and climate studies. The new version shows no Gibbs phenomenon and has improved computational efficiency. The performance has been significantly improved, especially in the stratosphere and winter hemisphere.
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yong Sun Kim, Minho Kwon, Eui-Seok Chung, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jin-Yong Jeong, Chan Joo Jang
Summary: A drastic regime shift was observed in the early summer connection between the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) and the tropical Pacific in the early 2000s. This shift led to an interhemispheric coupling between the YECS and southeastern tropical Pacific, attributed to a reduced El Nino signature in the tropical Pacific. The coupling is mediated by changes in rainfall and vertical motion over the western tropical Pacific, activating the western North Pacific subtropical high over the Philippine Sea. The susceptibility of the YECS to atmospheric forcing highlights its potential role as an indicator of global-scale climate change.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Seok-Woo Son, Eun-Pa Lim, Shayne McGregor, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug, Sang-Wook Yeh
Summary: Understanding the impacts of volcanic eruptions on atmospheric circulations and surface climate is crucial for climate prediction. Previous studies have shown that volcanic eruptions can induce warming in the Northern Hemisphere through certain circulation patterns, but uncertainties and controversies remain. This paper reviews previous studies, updates our understanding using new observations and model simulations, and proposes new insights into the role of volcanic eruption latitude. It also discusses uncertainty factors and suggests future research directions to resolve these issues.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jung Hyun Park, Seong-Joong Kim, Hyung-Gyu Lim, Jong-Seong Kug, Eun Jin Yang, Baek-Min Kim
Summary: In recent decades, the accelerating rate of Arctic warming has increased river discharge into the Arctic Ocean, affecting phytoplankton response. In present-day climate simulations, additional river discharge reduces spring phytoplankton biomass due to increased sea ice concentration. However, in summer, phytoplankton increases due to surplus nitrate and increased vertical mixing caused by reduced summer sea ice melting water. Future climate simulations show similar effects, with major phytoplankton responses shifting from the Eurasian Basin to the Canada Basin and the East-Siberian Sea.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kyung Min Noh, Hyung-Gyu Lim, Eun Jin Yang, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: In recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has been warming and freshening, affecting nutrient supply, light availability, chlorophyll, and productivity. Uncertainties in chlorophyll and nutrient projections in Earth system models (ESMs) are found, with greater uncertainty in CMIP6 ESMs compared to CMIP5 ESMs. A strong relationship between background nitrate and projected chlorophyll is identified, and applying this relationship reduces the uncertainty of future chlorophyll projections. The probability of decreasing chlorophyll concentration is increased by approximately 36% after applying the emergent constraint.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chang-Hyun Park, Jung Choi, Seok-Woo Son, Daehyun Kim, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences the winter climate in western North America (WNA) through the Pacific/North American-like teleconnection pattern. However, the ENSO teleconnections over the WNA show significant sub-seasonal variation, particularly weakening in mid-winter due to convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. This sub-seasonal variation is poorly predicted by multi-model hindcasts, affecting the prediction skill of WNA surface air temperature in mid-winter.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jihae Kim, Daehyun Kang, Myong-In Lee, Emilia Kyung Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Won Sang Lee
Summary: West Antarctica's sea ice variability is influenced by ENSO and IOD, which explain 20%-30% of the variation during austral spring. The variation is primarily linked with anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea (ABS), affecting poleward atmospheric temperature advection and radiative forcing. An idealized experiment shows that ENSO in the Pacific Ocean contributes more to the anticyclonic circulation anomaly in ABS compared to IOD in the Indian Ocean.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiuwei Zhao, Mi-Kyung Sung, Jae-Heung Park, Jing-Jia Luo, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: In this study, a new mechanism is proposed to explain the linkage between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through upper-tropospheric teleconnections. It is found that wave energy associated with the NPO propagates directly from midlatitude to the tropics, modulating the tropical circulation and contributing to the development of El Nino events.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jiuwei Zhao, Mi-Kyung Sung, Jae-Heung Park, Jing-Jia Luo, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: This study investigates the relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the initiation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It proposes a new mechanism that suggests the NPO-related wave activity flux directly induces equatorial wind anomalies, resulting in ENSO events. The study also reveals that the strength of the southward wave activity flux over the central Pacific is a crucial factor in simulating the NPO-ENSO linkage.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Gayan Pathirana, Na-Yeon Shin, Yi-Kai Wu, Minho Kwon, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: Tropical convection plays a crucial role in climate variability, and the study found that changes in projected tropical precipitation vary among CMIP6 models but are closely related to the model's warm pool intensity. Models with stronger warm pools tend to simulate increased precipitation in the central Pacific and decreased precipitation in the Maritime Continent under greenhouse warming. The precipitation differences between these regions induce westerly wind anomalies, leading to sea surface temperature warming in the central Pacific.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xin Geng, Kyung-Min Noh, Jong-Seong Kug, Wenjun Zhang
Summary: In this study, the influence of El Nino on winter surface air temperature in southeastern China was examined. It was found that El Nino events are associated with warmer-than-normal minimum temperatures, while the response of maximum temperatures is weak. Further analysis indicates that this temperature change is related to changes in the local wind field.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Jongsoo Shin, Jong-Seong Kug, Wenjun Zhang, Malte F. Stuecker, Xinyi Yuan, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Soong-Ki Kim
Summary: Studies show that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits strong hysteresis responses to carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction, which may amplify and prolong its impact in a warming climate, leading to significant socioeconomic consequences.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker, Wenjun Zhang, Jong-Seong Kug, Xinyi Yuan, Jongsoo Shin, Aoyun Xue, Xin Geng, Soong-Ki Kim
Summary: This study reveals the hysteresis of ENSO skewness in response to CO2 forcing. The positive SST skewness in the tropical Pacific weakens with increasing CO2 and weakens even further with decreasing CO2. The migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone leads to more active and eastward-located strong El Nino events, resulting in a reduction of central Pacific ENSO skewness.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xin Geng, Jiuwei Zhao, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: Based on observations and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase reversal occurs abruptly in early January due to the change in ENSO-induced Rossby wave-propagating direction over the northeastern North American region. The study also suggests that the North Atlantic intrinsic eddy-low-frequency flow feedback amplifies the NAO responses. This abrupt NAO change offers a potential avenue for intraseasonal climate forecasting in the Euro-Atlantic region.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Soon-Il An, Hyo-Jin Park, Soong-Ki Kim, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Daehyun Kim, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: The Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon (IOD) is a zonal contrast pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on interannual time scales. The positive phase of IOD is characterized by warm western TIO and cold southeastern TIO, and it is usually stronger than its negative phase. This study investigates the causes of IOD asymmetry using a prototype IOD model, considering various physical processes such as nonlinear feedback, El Nino's asymmetric impact, and state-dependent noise. The results show that the leading cause of IOD asymmetry without considering seasonality is a local nonlinear process, followed by the state-dependent noise and the direct effect of positively skewed ENSO, with almost equal contributions from the latter two. However, the contributions of each process vary with seasons, with the local nonlinear feedback and state-dependent noise being major drivers of IOD asymmetry in boreal summer, and the ENSO impacts becoming important in boreal fall along with the other two processes.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)