Robust decrease in El Nino/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming

The impact of climate warming on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is uncertain in centennial-scale model projections due to internal variability, but an ensemble of millennial-scale simulations suggests decreased ENSO amplitude in the equilibrium response to greenhouse gas forcing. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary mode of interannual climate variability, and understanding its response to climate change is critical, but research remains divided on the direction and magnitude of that response. Some twenty-first-century simulations suggest that increased CO2 strengthens ENSO, but studies suggest that on palaeoclimate timescales higher temperatures are associated with a reduced ENSO amplitude and a weaker Pacific zonal temperature gradient, sometimes termed a 'permanent El Nino'. Internal variability complicates this debate by masking the response of ENSO to forcing in centennial-length projections. Here we exploit millennial-length climate model simulations to disentangle forced changes to ENSO under transient and equilibrated conditions. On transient timescales, models show a wide spread in ENSO responses but, on millennial timescales, nearly all of them show decreased ENSO amplitude and a weakened Pacific zonal temperature gradient. Our results reconcile differences among twenty-first-century simulations and suggest that CO2 forcing dampens ENSO over the long term.

Automated summary

The impact of climate warming on ENSO amplitude is uncertain, but studies suggest that on a long-term scale, CO2 forcing dampens ENSO.