Article
Water Resources
Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Giuseppe Mendicino, Alfonso Senatore
Summary: Fully coupled atmospheric-hydrological models can provide a more realistic representation of the land surface and its interaction with the boundary layer. This study evaluates the potential contribution of this approach in medium-range hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. The results show that the fully coupled approach performs well, especially in situations where soil moisture dynamics is important.
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, Luca Brocca
Summary: This study demonstrates the application of high-resolution satellite-based Earth observation (EO) data in hydrological modeling. By using satellite data for model forcing, data assimilation, and calibration, accurate estimates of river discharge can be obtained. Despite slightly worse skills compared to conventional data, satellite data shows potential for fully satellite-driven hydrological applications.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Albert Comellas Prat, Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alex O. Fierro, Stefano Dietrich
Summary: This study shows that total lightning data assimilation significantly improves cloud-resolving short-term precipitation forecasts for heavy rainfall events in Italy, particularly for rainfall thresholds exceeding 40 mm/3 h.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
S. Rakesh, Govindan Kutty
Summary: The study compares the performance of four data assimilation systems in the WRF model, showing that 4DVAR produces more accurate wind speed forecasts and both 4DVAR and EAKF demonstrate improvement in upper tropospheric temperature forecasts. The 4DVAR system outperforms others in rainfall forecast when simulating high-resolution assimilation effects.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Gregg Jacobs, Joseph D'Addezio, Brent Bartels, Chris Dehaan, Charlie Barron, Matthew Carrier, Andrey Shcherbina, Mathieu Dever
Summary: To improve ocean forecasting accuracy, local high resolution observations must be utilized. A study comparing three different ocean forecast experiments found that adaptive assimilation of glider data can enhance predictive skill.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yu Li, Keyi Chen, Zhipeng Xian
Summary: The all-sky assimilation of microwave observations has potentially positive impacts on improving cloud-associated weather forecasts, particularly regarding heavy rainfall. This approach provides more cloud and precipitation information, leading to more accurate forecast performances in terms of heavy rainfall distribution and intensity.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anumeha Dube, S. Karunasagar, Raghavendra Ashrit, Ashis K. Mitra
Summary: This study uses an object-based spatial verification method to evaluate ensemble rainfall forecasts over three monsoon seasons in India and analyzes the contribution of displacement, volume, and pattern errors to the total error. The study finds that the uncertainties in the NEPS system are better represented in some regions and rainfall intensity is a challenging attribute to predict.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Juan Zhao, Jidong Gao, Thomas Jones, Junjun Hu
Summary: This study investigates the impact of assimilating GOES-16 derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) in addition to WSR_88D Doppler radar observations on convective scale numerical weather prediction. The results show that the experiment assimilating AMVs together with radar data performs slightly better in reflectivity and precipitation forecasts, and exhibits more skillful storm forecast in terms of the areal coverage, storm mode, and storm orientations.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Peng Liu, Yi Yang, Anwei Lai, Yunheng Wang, Alexandre O. Fierro, Jidong Gao, Chenghai Wang
Summary: The study utilized a dual-resolution, hybrid 3DEnVAR method to assimilate radar data and pseudo-water vapor observations, improving short-term severe weather forecasts with the WRF model. Different coefficients were tested, with a static coefficient of 0.4 and an ensemble coefficient of 0.6 found to yield the best forecast skill in this event.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Mario Raffa, Marianna Adinolfi, Alfredo Reder, Gian Franco Marras, Marco Mancini, Gabriella Scipione, Monia Santini, Paola Mercogliano
Summary: This paper introduces VHR-PRO_IT, an open access hourly climate projection with a resolution of ?2.2 km, covering the Italian peninsula and some neighbouring areas up to 2050. It is produced by downscaling the Italy8km-CM climate projection with the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The VHR-PRO_IT data is intended for research purposes in the field of climate studies, such as investigating the added value of running climate simulation at the convection-permitting scale.
Article
Water Resources
Benedetta Moccia, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Fabio Russo, Francesco Napolitano
Summary: The study found that the GEV predicts an upper rainfall limit in the analyzed samples, which is considered an artifact due to sample variations; it is suggested to use GEV(+) and BrXII distributions to describe precipitation extremes; the BrXII predicted larger rainfall amounts for large return periods compared to GEV, indicating potential underestimation of extreme rainfall risks by GEV estimates.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, Francois Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, Maria-Helena Ramos
Summary: This paper presents a methodological framework for the event-based evaluation of short-range hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts in flash-flood events. The framework focuses on anticipating and accurately localizing discharge threshold exceedances. The proposed approach includes evaluating rainfall forecasts, analyzing the flood rising limb at ungauged sub-catchments, and evaluating forecast hydrographs at selected gauged sub-catchments. The framework is tested for a flash flood event in France and evaluated three ensemble rainfall nowcasting research products.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Chinmay Jena, Sachin D. Ghude, Rajesh Kumar, Sreyashi Debnath, Gaurav Govardhan, Vijay K. Soni, Santosh H. Kulkarni, G. Beig, Ravi S. Nanjundiah, M. Rajeevan
Summary: This study introduces a high-resolution operational air quality forecasting system to alert residents of Delhi and the National Capital Region about upcoming air pollution episodes. The system has shown high skill in forecasting PM2.5 concentration and unhealthy air quality index categories, assisting decision-makers in making informed decisions. The accuracy of the forecast decreases slightly with lead time, but remains useful for decision-making.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Thippawan Thodsan, Falin Wu, Kritanai Torsri, Thakolpat Khampuenson, Gongliu Yang
Summary: The study evaluated the predictive capabilities of multi-platform observation assimilation for heavy rainfall events in the Kong-Chi basin. Results showed that both DAALL and DAAWS assimilation schemes improved the prediction of heavy rainfall events and near-surface location forecasts, but the accuracy of rainfall predictions still needs improvement.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Bojun Zhu, Zhaoxia Pu, Agie Wandala Putra, Zhiqiu Gao
Summary: This study investigates the impact of observations from a C-band Doppler radar on high-resolution numerical simulations of precipitation during the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the west coast of Sumatra. The results show that assimilating radar data can improve precipitation simulation, especially when it is influenced by local-scale convection.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
D. Bonaldo, F. Antonioli, R. Archetti, A. Bezzi, A. Correggiari, S. Davolio, G. De Falco, M. Fantini, G. Fontolan, S. Furlani, M. G. Gaeta, G. Leoni, V. Lo Presti, G. Mastronuzzi, S. Pillon, A. Ricchi, P. Stocchi, A. G. Samaras, G. Scicchitano, S. Carniel
JOURNAL OF COASTAL CONSERVATION
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele, B. Ahrens, I Anders, N. Ban, S. Bastin, M. Belda, D. Belusic, A. Caldas-Alvarez, R. M. Cardoso, S. Davolio, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, L. Fita, Q. Fumiere, F. Giorgi, K. Goergen, I Guttler, T. Halenka, D. Heinzeller, O. Hodnebrog, D. Jacob, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, E. Kendon, S. Khodayar, H. Kunstmann, S. Knist, A. Lavin-Gullon, P. Lind, T. Lorenz, D. Maraun, L. Marelle, E. van Meijgaard, J. Milovac, G. Myhre, H-J Panitz, M. Piazza, M. Raffa, T. Raub, B. Rockel, C. Schaer, K. Sieck, P. M. M. Soares, S. Somot, L. Srnec, P. Stocchi, M. H. Toelle, H. Truhetz, R. Vautard, H. de Vries, K. Warrach-Sagi
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christian Ferrarin, Silvio Davolio, Debora Bellafiorea, Michol Ghezzo, Francesco Maicu, William Mc Kiver, Oxana Drofa, Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Piero Malguzzi, Luca Zaggia, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Giorgia Manfe
JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY
(2019)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
S. Davolio, S. Della Fera, S. Laviola, M. M. Miglietta, V Levizzani
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
A. Senatore, S. Davolio, L. Furnari, G. Mendicino
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiara Marsigli, Davide Cesari, Pier Paolo Alberoni, Tiziana Paccagnella
Summary: The study evaluated the operational assimilation of reflectivities in the COSMO-2I model using a local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), showing significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecasts and a stronger impact on convective cases.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lorenzo Giovannini, Silvio Davolio, Mattia Zaramella, Dino Zardi, Marco Borga
Summary: The study aims to identify the main mesoscale features and mechanisms responsible for the intense precipitation and wind storm event named Vaia that affected the eastern Italian Alps on 27-29 October 2018. It was found that the storm had two consecutive phases with strong precipitations, both driven by an intense moist southerly flow. The numerical simulations by two models, WRF and MOLOCH, captured the main characteristics of the storm but showed some underestimation of total precipitation and overestimation of wind speed in certain areas.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Review
Oceanography
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, Alvise Benetazzo, Luigi Cavaleri, Jacopo Chiggiato, Silvio Davison, Silvio Davolio, Piero Lionello, Mirko Orlic, Georg Umgiesser
Summary: On November 12, 2019, Venice experienced an exceptional flood event, second only to the one in 1966; the peculiar weather and sea conditions on that day led to extreme high waters and significant damages to the city.
PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Mario Marcello Miglietta, Federico Buscemi, Stavros Dafis, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tiesi, Dario Conte, Silvio Davolio, Emmanouil Flaounas, Vincenzo Levizzani, Richard Rotunno
Summary: On the evening of November 12, 2019, Venice, Italy experienced an exceptionally high tide caused by a small warm-core mesoscale cyclone. The cyclone was preceded by strong northeasterlies and resulted in significant damage to the city. Simulation results suggest that the exact position of an upper-level potential vorticity streamer played a crucial role in determining the track and strength of the cyclone.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, Graziano Giuliani, James M. Ciarlo, Emanuela Pichelli, Rita Nogherotto, Francesca Raffaele, Piero Malguzzi, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Stocchi, Oxana Drofa
Summary: Introduces the latest version of the RegCM regional climate modeling system, RegCM5, which includes a more accurate and computationally stable non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Several physics schemes and coupled model components have also been upgraded. Test simulations show that RegCM5 performs better than RegCM4 in terms of statistics, especially at convection-permitting resolutions. It is a freely available, computationally efficient, flexible, and portable Regional Earth System model designed for community use.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Silvio Davolio, Marco Vercellino, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Lucia Drago Pitura, Sante Laviola, Vincenzo Levizzani
Summary: On 2-3 October 2020, heavy precipitation in northern Italy and the western Alps, driven by an upper-level trough and an atmospheric river, led to rainfall exceeding 600 mm in 24 hours. The atmospheric river brought a significant amount of moisture from both the Mediterranean Sea and the tropics, intensifying the precipitation systems. The presence of the atmospheric river played a crucial role in transforming the event into a devastating flood, highlighting the complex interaction between large-scale flows and mesoscale dynamics.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christian Ferrarin, Mirko Orlic, Marco Bajo, Silvio Davolio, Georg Umgiesser, Piero Lionello
Summary: On November 12, 2019, a rare flood occurred in Venice, submerging 90% of the city's pedestrian areas. Strong winds and air pressure changes caused the flooding and generated a meteotsunami-like wave.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrio, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Emmanouil Flaounas
Summary: This study evaluates the impact of Medicane Ianos on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of numerical simulations. The results show severe sea conditions and highlight the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Mario Marcello Miglietta, Silvio Davolio
Summary: The HyMeX campaign provided valuable insights into precipitation systems in the northwestern Mediterranean, with a focus on heavy precipitation events and floods. The study identified different categories of events in different target areas and highlighted the role of environmental conditions and orographic forcing in triggering and sustaining convection. Understanding these processes is crucial for better understanding and predicting precipitation and flooding in the region.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maria Laura Poletti, Francesco Silvestro, Silvio Davolio, Flavio Pignone, Nicola Rebora
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2019)