Variation in KRAS driver substitution distributions between tumor types is determined by both mutation and natural selection

Different tumor types vary greatly in their distribution of driver substitutions. Here, we analyzed how mutation and natural selection contribute to differences in the distribution of KRAS driver substitutions between lung, colon and pancreatic adenocarcinomas. We were able to demonstrate that both differences in mutation and differences in selection drive variation in the distribution of KRAS driver substitutions between tumor types. By accounting for the effects of mutation on the distribution of KRAS driver substitutions, we could identify specific KRAS driver substitutions that are more favored by selection in specific tumor types. Such driver substitutions likely improve fitness most when they occur within the context of the tumor type in which they are preferentially favored. Fitting with this, we found that driver substitutions that are more favored by natural selection in a specific type of tumor tend to associate with worse clinical outcomes specifically in that type of tumor.