Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

(2021) Niklas Boers et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Fingerprints for early detection of changes in the AMOC

(2020) L C Jackson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Coupling of the subpolar gyre and the overturning circulation during abrupt glacial climate transitions

(2020) M. Klockmann et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Weakening Atlantic overturning circulation causes South Atlantic salinity pile-up

(2020) Chenyu Zhu et al.   Nature Climate Change

Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model

(2019) Hassan Alkhayuon et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics

(2019) Martin Rypdal et al.   Nature Communications

Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

(2019) Richard A. Wood et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

(2018) R. Alexander-Turner et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Hysteresis and resilience of the AMOC in an eddy-permitting GCM

(2018) L. C. Jackson et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

(2018) D. A. Smeed et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record

(2018) Niklas Boers   Nature Communications

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

(2018) L. Caesar et al.   NATURE

Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation

(2018) Xianyao Chen et al.   NATURE

Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM

(2018) Andrea Klus et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

(2018) Niklas Boers et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

(2017) Rong Zhang   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

(2017) Boyin Huang et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability

(2017) J.V. Mecking et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

(2017) Wei Liu et al.   Science Advances

Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping

(2016) Paul Ritchie et al.   CHAOS

Thermohaline instability and the formation of glacial North Atlantic super polynyas at the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events

(2016) Guido Vettoretti et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Early-Warning Signals for the Onsets of Greenland Interstadials and the Younger Dryas–Preboreal Transition

(2016) Martin Rypdal   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

(2016) L. G. Henry et al.   SCIENCE

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

(2015) L. C. Jackson et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Response of Atlantic overturning to future warming in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

(2015) Paul Gierz et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

(2015) Stefan Rahmstorf et al.   Nature Climate Change

Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes

(2014) Xu Zhang et al.   NATURE

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

(2014) Chris A. Boulton et al.   Nature Communications

A Multimodel Study of Sea Surface Temperature and Subsurface Density Fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

(2013) Christopher D. Roberts et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Why is the AMOC Monostable in Coupled General Circulation Models?

(2013) Wei Liu et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Flickering as an early warning signal

(2013) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates

(2013) Simon A. Good et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS

Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet melting in a strongly-eddying ocean model

(2012) W. Weijer et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

North Atlantic forcing of Amazonian precipitation during the last ice age

(2012) Nicole A. S. Mosblech et al.   Nature Geoscience

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

High-Latitude Forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon During the Last Glacial

(2012) L. C. Kanner et al.   SCIENCE

Built for stability

(2011) Paul Valdes   Nature Geoscience

Early warning of climate tipping points

(2011) Timothy M. Lenton   Nature Climate Change

The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates

(2010) Sybren S. Drijfhout et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

(2010) Peter D. Ditlevsen et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

(2009) T. M Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years

(2008) Yongjin Wang et al.   NATURE

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

(2008) T. M. Lenton et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA