4.7 Article

Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic

期刊

ENGINEERING
卷 7, 期 7, 页码 914-923

出版社

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.017

关键词

COVID-19; Pandemic; Population mobility; Travel restriction; Physical distancing

资金

  1. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1134076, INV-024911, OPP1106427, OPP1032350, OPP1094793, OPP1170969]
  2. National Science Foundation [1816075]
  3. EU Horizon [MOOD 874850]
  4. Clinton Health Access Initiative
  5. UK Department for International Development (DFID)
  6. Well-come Trust [106866/Z/15/Z, 204613/Z/16/Z]
  7. Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
  8. Division Of Mathematical Sciences [1816075] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
  9. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [INV-024911, OPP1170969] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

向作者/读者索取更多资源

The study showed that travel and contact restrictions played a crucial role in containing COVID-19 outbreaks, but their effectiveness varied depending on the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, as well as differences in case severity across populations, regions, and seasons. Before widespread vaccination and herd immunity, maintaining a certain level of physical distancing during the relaxation of intervention measures will likely be necessary to prevent rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.
Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79-116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier LTD on behalf of Chinese Academy of Engineering and Higher Education Press Limited Company.

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