Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling

Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random?

(2016) Daniel Wallach et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

(2015) N Pirttioja et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

(2015) G Zhao et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

(2015) Benjamin M. Sanderson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Toward Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future Climate Simulations*

(2015) Melissa S. Bukovsky et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

(2015) Bruno Basso et al.   PLoS One

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

(2014) James M. Murphy et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

(2014) Anna Wesselink et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

(2014) Tao Li et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

(2014) Pierre Martre et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

(2014) Simona Bassu et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

(2014) S. Asseng et al.   Nature Climate Change

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

(2013) L. O. Mearns et al.   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Optimally choosing small ensemble members to produce robust climate simulations

(2013) Jason P Evans et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Combining input uncertainty and residual error in crop model predictions: A case study on vineyards

(2013) Sébastien Roux et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY

GLUE: 20 years on

(2013) Keith Beven et al.   HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*

(2013) Clara Deser et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

(2013) Cynthia Rosenzweig et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

(2013) S. Asseng et al.   Nature Climate Change

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

(2012) C. Rosenzweig et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Use of agro-climate ensembles for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation

(2012) Andrew J. Challinor et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Assessing the Uncertainty when Using a Model to Compare Irrigation Strategies

(2012) Daniel Wallach et al.   AGRONOMY JOURNAL

Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm

(2012) Craig H. Bishop et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models

(2012) Reimund P. Rötter et al.   FIELD CROPS RESEARCH

Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles

(2011) Tokuta Yokohata et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: A comparison of eight crop growth models

(2011) Taru Palosuo et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY

Gas exchange and water relations of spring wheat under full-season infrared warming

(2011) GERARD W. WALL et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions

(2011) Stan Yip et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

(2010) Clara Deser et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The end of model democracy?

(2010) Reto Knutti   CLIMATIC CHANGE

Using and Designing GCM–RCM Ensemble Regional Climate Projections

(2010) Elizabeth J. Kendon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

(2010) Benjamin M. Sanderson   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan

(2010) Chung-Ming Liu et al.   THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection

(2009) Fulu Tao et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections

(2009) Y Xu et al.   CLIMATE RESEARCH

Sensitivity analysis for a complex crop model applied to Durum wheat in the Mediterranean

(2009) G.M. Richter et al.   EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY

Plant available soil water at sowing in Mediterranean environments—Is it a useful criterion to aid nitrogen fertiliser and sowing decisions?

(2009) Carina Moeller et al.   FIELD CROPS RESEARCH

Use of a crop model ensemble to quantify CO2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops

(2008) A.J. Challinor et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY

Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of a large-scale crop model for paddy rice: Application of a Bayesian approach

(2008) T IIZUMI et al.   AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY