期刊
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES
卷 73, 期 8, 页码 1261-1270出版社
CANADIAN SCIENCE PUBLISHING, NRC RESEARCH PRESS
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2015-0339
关键词
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资金
- National Marine Fisheries Service Fisheries
- Environment Program
The state-space model framework provides a natural, probabilistic approach to stock assessment by modeling the stochastic nature of population survival and recruitment separately from sampling uncertainty inherent in observations on the population. We propose a state-space assessment model that is expanded to simultaneously treat environmental covariates as stochastic processes and estimate their effects on recruitment. We apply the model to southern New England yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) using data from the most recent benchmark assessment to evaluate evidence for effects of the mid-Atlantic cold pool and spawning stock biomass on recruitment. Based on Akaike's information criterion, both the cold pool and spawning stock biomass were important predictors of recruitment and led to annual variation in estimated biomass reference points and associated yield. We also demonstrate the effect of the stochasticity of the mid-Atlantic cold pool on short-term forecasts of the stock size, biomass reference point, and stock status.
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