Occurrence prediction of pests and diseases in cotton on the basis of weather factors by long short term memory network

Background: The occurrence of cotton pests and diseases has always been an important factor affecting the total cotton production. Cotton has a great dependence on environmental factors during its growth, especially climate change. In recent years, machine learning and especially deep learning methods have been widely used in many fields and have achieved good results. Methods: First, this papaer used the common Aprioro algorithm to find the association rules between weather factors and the occurrence of cotton pests. Then, in this paper, the problem of predicting the occurrence of pests and diseases is formulated as time series prediction, and an LSTM-based method was developed to solve the problem. Results: The association analysis reveals that moderate temperature, humid air, low wind spreed and rain fall in autumn and winter are more likely to occur cotton pests and diseases. The discovery was then used to predict the occurrence of pests and diseases. Experimental results showed that LSTM performs well on the prediction of occurrence of pests and diseases in cotton fields, and yields the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.97. Conclusion: Suitable temperature, humidity, low rainfall, low wind speed, suitable sunshine time and low evaporation are more likely to cause cotton pests and diseases. Based on these associations as well as historical weather and pest records, LSTM network is a good predictor for future pest and disease occurrences. Moreover, compared to the traditional machine learning models (i.e., SVM and Random Forest), the LSTM network performs the best.