Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Measles: the burden of preventable deaths

(2012) Walter A Orenstein et al.   LANCET

Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data

(2012) Emily Simons et al.   LANCET

Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes

(2012) Justin M Cohen et al.   MALARIA JOURNAL

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

(2012) T. M. Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

Anticipating Critical Transitions

(2012) M. Scheffer et al.   SCIENCE

Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models

(2012) Anthony R. Ives et al.   Ecosphere

Conditional Heteroscedasticity as a Leading Indicator of Ecological Regime Shifts

(2011) David A. Seekell et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   ECOLOGY

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   ECOLOGY

A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010

(2011) Peter W Gething et al.   MALARIA JOURNAL

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: Bifurcations, fast–slow systems and stochastic dynamics

(2011) Christian Kuehn   PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

The decline and resurgence of pertussis in the US

(2011) Pejman Rohani et al.   Epidemics

Early warning of climate tipping points

(2011) Timothy M. Lenton   Nature Climate Change

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

EARLY WARNINGS FOR CATASTROPHIC SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS: COMPARISON BETWEEN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL INDICATORS

(2010) RAUL DONANGELO et al.   INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Epidemic Dynamics at the Human-Animal Interface

(2009) J. O. Lloyd-Smith et al.   SCIENCE

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

(2009) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Measuring tuberculosis burden, trends, and the impact of control programmes

(2008) C Dye et al.   LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems

(2008) Vishwesha Guttal et al.   Theoretical Ecology