Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

(2014) G. Beaugrand   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

(2014) S. D. Ling et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

(2013) Stephen R. Carpenter et al.   OIKOS

Frequency and intensity of productivity regime shifts in marine fish stocks

(2013) K. A. Vert-pre et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Changes in ecosystem resilience detected in automated measures of ecosystem metabolism during a whole-lake manipulation

(2013) R. D. Batt et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

(2013) E. Di Lorenzo et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

(2013) Carl Boettiger et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Flickering as an early warning signal

(2013) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

Regime shift indicators fail under noise levels commonly observed in ecological systems

(2012) Charles T. Perretti et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

A test of critical thresholds and their indicators in a desertification-prone ecosystem: more resilience than we thought

(2012) Brandon T. Bestelmeyer et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Quantifying limits to detection of early warning for critical transitions

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state

(2012) Rong Wang et al.   NATURE

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

(2012) Sonia Kéfi et al.   OIKOS

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

(2012) T. M. Lenton et al.   PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

(2012) Martin Lindegren et al.   PLoS One

Early Warnings of Regime Shift When the Ecosystem Structure Is Unknown

(2012) William A. Brock et al.   PLoS One

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

(2012) Vasilis Dakos et al.   PLoS One

Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos

(2012) S. Kortsch et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

(2012) Steven J. Lade et al.   PLoS Computational Biology

General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events

(2012) Stephen Carpenter et al.   Sustainability

Slowing Down in Spatially Patterned Ecosystems at the Brink of Collapse

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Early warnings of unknown nonlinear shifts: a nonparametric approach

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   ECOLOGY

Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

(2011) Vasilis Dakos et al.   ECOLOGY

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: Bifurcations, fast–slow systems and stochastic dynamics

(2011) Christian Kuehn   PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions

(2011) M. Hirota et al.   SCIENCE

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning

(2010) Alan Hastings et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Empirical evidence of an approaching alternate state produced by intrinsic community dynamics, climatic variability and management actions

(2010) JE Hewitt et al.   MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: What do we need to know and when do we need to know it

(2009) Raphael Contamin et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

(2009) Marten Scheffer et al.   NATURE

Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

(2009) Reinette Biggs et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

(2009) Vasilis Dakos et al.   Theoretical Ecology

INCREASED SPATIAL VARIANCE ACCOMPANIES REORGANIZATION OF TWO CONTINENTAL SHELF ECOSYSTEMS

(2008) Michael A. Litzow et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

(2008) Grégory Beaugrand et al.   ECOLOGY LETTERS

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

(2008) CHRISTIAN MÖLLMANN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

(2008) V. Dakos et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: detection, prediction and management

(2008) Brad deYoung et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

(2008) Tom Andersen et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION