Article
Health Care Sciences & Services
Laura Bojke, Marta O. Soares, Karl Claxton, Abigail Colson, Aimee Fox, Chris Jackson, Dina Jankovic, Alec Morton, Linda D. Sharples, Andrea Taylor
Summary: This article focuses on establishing reference case methods for expert elicitation to inform health care decision making. Methods choices for elicitation lack empirical evidence supporting recommendations, but reference case methods have been determined for health technology assessment. The reference methods prioritize experts with substantive knowledge, eliciting quantities directly observed by experts, and individual elicitation of beliefs. Further applied examples and experimental evidence comparing methods are recommended.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Jing Meng, Rupert Way, Elena Verdolini, Laura Diaz Anadon
Summary: This study systematically compares technology cost forecasts generated by expert elicitation methods and model-based methods, finding that model-based methods generally outperform elicitation methods. However, all methods tend to underestimate technological progress. Elicitations typically yield narrower uncertainty ranges than model-based methods. Model-based forecasts perform differently depending on the modularity of the technologies. Future research should focus on further method development to better reflect market structural changes and correlations across technologies.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Margreet Drijfhout, Dave Kendal, Pete Green
Summary: Management decisions that do not align with public values can lead to controversy and conflict. In Australia, the management of overabundant koalas has divided experts and the public for decades. There are significant differences in the acceptability of management options between experts and the public, but the polarity is mostly the same. Beliefs about human-wildlife relationships can explain these differences.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Martine J. Barons, Steven Mascaro, Anca M. Hanea
Summary: SEJ is a structured method for obtaining estimates from groups of experts, aiming to minimize cognitive frailties. When the number of quantities required is large, imputation methods can be used for unelicited quantities. InterBeta is effective in interpolating conditional probability tables to reduce expert burden.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Anca M. Hanea, Zoe Hilton, Ben Knight, Andrew P. Robinson
Summary: This article introduces the development and use of probabilistic models, particularly Bayesian networks (BN), for supporting risk-based decision making. It also highlights the promise of codesign and nonparametric Bayesian networks (NPBNs) in achieving a balance between model complexity and ease of development. A case study on the local spread of a marine pathogen is presented to demonstrate the process of codesigning, building, quantifying, and validating an NPBN model using structured expert judgment (SEJ).
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tamara Savage, Alex Davis, Baruch Fischhoff, M. Granger Morgan
Summary: Forecasts of future technologies are often inaccurate and overconfident, leading to a proposed hybrid approach that combines technical domain experts with experts on broader issues to improve accuracy. A pilot study showed that briefings on factors beyond technology led to wider forecast intervals, potentially aiding decision-makers in understanding the uncertainties of technology forecasts.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Review
Health Care Sciences & Services
Christopher J. Cadham, Marie Knoll, Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero, K. Michael Cummings, Clifford E. Douglas, Alex Liber, David Mendez, Rafael Meza, Ritesh Mistry, Aylin Sertkaya, Nargiz Travis, David T. Levy
Summary: The study revealed poor reporting of EE methods in modeling studies, hindering the distinction of meaningful differences in approaches. Improved quality standards for EE would enhance the validity and replicability of computational models.
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Gonzalo L. Pita, Barbara S. Albornoz, Juan Zaracho
Summary: Depth-damage relationships are crucial for flood risk assessments, but often lacking in developing countries where floods cause severe losses. Modelers may use foreign functions or expert-elicitation surveys in the absence of site-specific data. These functions developed with expert knowledge in flood damage mechanisms can be useful for probabilistic flood risk assessments.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Oncology
Dominique Leblanc, Guy Cantin, Alexandra Desnoyers, Jean Dufresne, Giuseppina Laura Masucci, Valerie Panet-Raymond, Eric Poirier, Sara Soldera, Isabelle Gingras
Summary: This paper summarizes the opinions of an expert committee on the management of oligometastatic breast cancer. The experts provide their insights on the disease background, therapeutic approach, local and systemic therapies, and prognosis. They also suggest the implementation of a data registry to improve knowledge and treatment for this condition. Overall, the paper presents expert opinions and highlights the need for improved care.
Article
Engineering, Multidisciplinary
Karol Andrzejczak, Lech Bukowski
Summary: This study presents a method for estimating the probability distribution of the lifetime of new technical facilities based on expert assessments. The method combines subjective Bayesian approach with classical probability theory models, and is particularly applicable in the field of maintenance of machinery and technical equipment.
EKSPLOATACJA I NIEZAWODNOSC-MAINTENANCE AND RELIABILITY
(2021)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Namkje Koudenburg, Henk A. L. Kiers, Yoshihisa Kashima
Summary: Opinion polarization is a growing issue in society, leading to unrest and conflicts. A valid measurement of opinion polarization can help predict when and on what issues conflicts may arise. This study developed and validated a new index of opinion polarization, which outperformed common measures in predicting expert polarization scores.
FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Jiayuan Dong, Jiankan Liao, Xun Huan, Daniel Cooper
Summary: Bayesian inference allows for transparent communication and systematic updating of model uncertainty based on new data. However, applying Bayesian inference to material flow analysis (MFA) faces challenges in determining proper priors for MFA parameters and quantifying data noise. This study addresses these issues by developing an expert elicitation procedure for generating MFA parameter priors and learning data noise concurrently with parametric uncertainty. The methods are demonstrated in a case study on US steel flow, incorporating expert opinions and collected data. The results show a reduction in MFA parametric uncertainty by incorporating collected data and highlight the importance of using multiple years of data for reducing data noise uncertainty.
JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Andreia Sousa, Marc Fernandez, Filipe Alves, Patricia Arranz, Ana Dinis, Laura Gonzalez Garcia, Misael Morales, Matthew Lettrich, Ricardo Encarnacao Coelho, Hugo Costa, Tiago Capela Lourenco, Jose Manuel Neto Azevedo, Catarina Frazao Santos
Summary: Global warming has caused changes in marine species composition, abundance, and distribution. We developed a method using expert-derived thermal suitability curves to predict future responses of cetacean species under different climate scenarios. This study provides a cost-efficient tool to support conservation efforts.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Clinical Neurology
Isabelle Arnulf, Robert Thomas, Asim Roy, Yves Dauvilliers
Summary: Idiopathic hypersomnia is a central hypersomnolence disorder characterized by excessive daytime sleepiness despite normal or long sleep time and frequent severe sleep inertia. Management strategies rely mostly on expert consensus due to a lack of specific assessments and robust research. Current guidelines recommend off-label medications, with Modafinil and low-sodium oxybate (LXB) being the most commonly used treatments that have demonstrated effectiveness in improving symptoms and daily functioning. The choice of pharmacotherapy should consider individual factors such as symptom profile, age, comorbidities, and concomitant medications. Nonpharmacological approaches and validated assessment tools, such as the idiopathic hypersomnia severity scale, also play a role in management. Further research is needed to support treatment algorithms for idiopathic hypersomnia.
SLEEP MEDICINE REVIEWS
(2023)
Article
Management
Julia R. Falconer, Eibe Frank, Devon L. L. Polaschek, Chaitanya Joshi
Summary: This paper proposes an alternative approach to overcoming the limitations of current methods for eliciting experts' prior beliefs. By inferring an expert's prior beliefs from their past decisions, analysts can model the decision-making process and approximate the prior beliefs for an uncertain event. The concept is illustrated through an application to recidivism, and important future research directions are highlighted.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Jonas Geldmann, Lauren Coad, Megan D. Barnes, Ian D. Craigie, Stephen Woodley, Andrew Balmford, Thomas M. Brooks, Marc Hockings, Kathryn Knights, Michael B. Mascia, Louise McRae, Neil D. Burgess
CONSERVATION LETTERS
(2018)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Katharina Schulze, Kathryn Knights, Lauren Coad, Jonas Geldmann, Fiona Leverington, April Eassom, Melitta Marr, Stuart H. M. Butchart, Marc Hockings, Neil D. Burgess
CONSERVATION LETTERS
(2018)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chu Van Cuong, Peter Dart, Nigel Dudley, Marc Hockings
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2018)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Dirk J. Roux, Richard T. Kingsford, Carly N. Cook, Jane Carruthers, Katrina Dickson, Marc Hockings
CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
(2019)
Article
Ecology
Lauren Coad, James E. M. Watson, Jonas Geldmann, Neil D. Burgess, Fiona Leverington, Marc Hockings, Kathryn Knights, Moreno Di Marco
FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
(2019)
Article
Oceanography
Miguel F. Frohlich, Timothy F. Smith, Chris Jacobson, Pedro Fidelman, R. W. (Bill) Carter, Claudia Baldwin
OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT
(2019)
Letter
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Stephen Woodley, Jonathan E. M. Baillie, Nigel Dudley, Marc Hockings, Naomi Kingston, Dan Laffoley, Harvey Locke, Jane Lubchenco, Kathy MacKinnon, Imen Meliane, Enric Sala, Mark Spalding
Article
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Helen J. Mayfield, Carl Smith, Marcus Gallagher, Marc Hockings
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
(2020)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Jonas Geldmann, Marine Deguignet, Andrew Balmford, Neil D. Burgess, Nigel Dudley, Marc Hockings, Naomi Kingston, Helen Klimmek, Alanah Hayley Lewis, Carsten Rahbek, Sue Stolton, Claire Vincent, Sue Wells, Stephen Woodley, James E. M. Watson
Summary: The work on the post-2020 global biodiversity framework is progressing well, with a focus on vision, goals, and indicators for the next decade of biodiversity conservation. The effectiveness indicator for protected areas and other conservation measures has been proposed, but there is still a lack of consensus on the data to inform it. It is essential to capture essential elements related to biodiversity outcomes and management in the updated indicator, as well as to establish a digital infrastructure for national-level data capture.
CONSERVATION LETTERS
(2021)
News Item
Biodiversity Conservation
Marc Hockings, Nigel Dudley, Sue Stolton, M. K. S. Pasha, Paul van Nimwegen
Article
Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism
Ross Westoby, Sarah Gardiner, R. W. (Bill) Carter, Noel Scott
Summary: Research findings suggest that developing human capital in regional areas and providing training for sustainable livelihood outcomes are essential to prevent tensions caused by top-down, elite-led development. In addition, tourism infrastructure is crucial for supporting tourism development, but must be carefully balanced with its associated impacts in order to ensure sustainability.
ASIA PACIFIC JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Business
Laura Sinay, Maria Cristina Fogliatti de Sinay, Rodney William (Bill) Carter, Aurea Martins
RAUSP MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
(2019)
Article
Environmental Studies
Sherri L. Tanner-McAllister, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Marc Hockings
AUSTRALASIAN JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2018)
Review
Biodiversity Conservation
Beau J. Austin, Catherine J. Robinson, James A. Fitzsimons, Marcus Sandford, Emilie J. Ens, Jennifer M. Macdonald, Marc Hockings, David G. Hinchley, Fergus B. McDonald, Colleen Corrigan, Rod Kennett, Hmalan Hunter-Xenie, Stephen T. Garnett
CONSERVATION & SOCIETY
(2018)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Laura Sinay, R. W. (Bill) Carter
Article
Environmental Sciences
Elizabeth Alvarez-Chavez, Stephane Godbout, Mylene Genereux, Caroline Cote, Alain N. Rousseau, Sebastien Fournel
Summary: This study evaluated the effect of alternative filtering materials and bed aeration on the retention of nutrients and fecal bacteria in woodchip bedded stand-off pads for cows. The results showed that the alternative biofilters were more efficient in removing COD, SS, TN, and NO3-N, while conventional biofilters were more efficient for PO4-P removal. Aeration did not have a significant effect under the tested temperature conditions.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yike Zhang, Zengyi Ma, Zhuoting Fang, Yuandong Qian, Zhiping Huang, Yilong Ye, Jianhua Yan
Summary: This study investigates the application of oxygen enrichment melting technology in the melting of municipal solid waste incineration fly ash. The results demonstrate that oxygen enrichment technology can reduce energy consumption and operating costs, as well as decrease pollution emissions.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Liangang Xiao, Mingkai Leng, Philip Greenwood, Rongqin Zhao, Zhixiang Xie, Zengtao You, Junguo Liu
Summary: This study investigates the effects of grazing exclusion on soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and vegetation recovery. It finds that grazing exclusion can increase the potential for SOC accumulation, and higher annual precipitation is positively correlated with SOC accumulation.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Beatrice Cantoni, Jessica Ianes, Beatrice Bertolo, Selena Ziccardi, Francesco Maffini, Manuela Antonelli
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of ozonation and adsorption as in-series processes compared to standalone processes for the removal of Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CECs) in drinking water. The combination of both processes proves to be more effective than adsorption and ozonation alone. Ozonation improves the adsorption performance of poorly-oxidizable CECs but worsens that of well-oxidizable compounds. This research highlights the importance of considering both processes in the removal of CECs in drinking water treatment plants.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Dan Li, Bingjun Liu, Yang Lu, Jianyu Fu
Summary: A new Standardized compound Drought and Saltwater intrusion Index (SDSI) was developed to detect changes in the severity of CDSEs in six estuaries. The study found that saltwater intrusion plays a dominant role in influencing SDSI severity, and CDSEs vary in frequency, duration and severity among different estuaries.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yong-Qiang Li, Rui Sun, Chong-Miao Zhang, Zi-Xuan Liu, Rui-tao Chen, Jian Zhao, Hua-dong Gu, Huan-Cai Yin
Summary: In this study, an electron beam excitation multi-wavelength ultraviolet (EBE-MW-UV) system was established and found to have significantly higher microbial inactivation effects compared to single-wavelength UV-LEDs in water. Mechanism analysis revealed that EBE-MW-UV damaged microbial DNA and proteins, and generated additional reactive oxygen species, leading to microbial inactivation.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Kaili Ma, Xinxin Han, Qiujuan Li, Yu Kong, Qiaoli Liu, Xu Yan, Yahong Luo, Xiaopin Li, Huiyang Wen, Zhiguo Cao
Summary: This study reveals that the use of a tryptophan-degrading microbial consortium (TDC) can enhance the hydrolysis efficiency of waste activated sludge (WAS), increasing the yield and quality of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and improving the solubilization and release of organic substances from WAS.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ling Xiong, Rui Li
Summary: Incorporating Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) into land use planning can provide informed land management decisions. This study evaluates the ESV of Guizhou Province in China's karst region. The results show an increase in total ESV over the past two decades due to ecological restoration projects.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
M. Geetha Jenifel
Summary: This article discusses the importance of water and the pollution of freshwater resources, and introduces the use of machine learning models and blockchain technology to predict and protect water quality.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Stanslaus Terengia Materu, Taotao Chen, Chang Liu, Daocai Chi, Meng Jun
Summary: The study showed that H2SO4-modified biochar can reduce P leaching, increase soil available P, and enhance plant P uptake in alternate wetting and drying irrigation systems. Biochar additions B20A and IAWDB20A-M were effective in improving yield, reducing P leaching, and increasing APB.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amir Nouri, Ali Akbar Zinatizadeh, Sirus Zinadini, Mark Van Loosdrecht
Summary: This study focuses on the development of an air-lift bio-electrochemical reactor (ALBER) with a continuous feeding regime to enhance nitrogen removal from synthetic wastewater. The effect of temperature, hydraulic retention time (HRT), N -NH+4 /TN ratio, and current density on the reactor performance was investigated, and the ALBER achieved a maximum TN removal of 73%. The results suggest that the ALBER has potential for treating industrial wastewater at low temperatures.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Peifang Wang, Guoxiang You, Yang Gao, Juan Chen, Xun Wang, Chao Wang
Summary: This study investigated the ecological processes of microbial communities and N- and P-transformation processes in multistage agricultural drainage ditches. The results showed that the microbial communities were co-shaped by agricultural practices and ditch size, which further governed the N and P removal performance.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaofeng Niu, Huan Wang, Tao Wang, Peiyu Zhang, Huan Zhang, Hongxia Wang, Xianghong Kong, Songguang Xie, Jun Xu
Summary: Microorganisms play a critical role in maintaining ecosystem balance, and environmental stressors can affect the assembly processes of microbial communities. The study found that different stressors have opposite effects on microbial community assembly in water and sediment, and warming has different influences compared to herbicides and nutrients.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yuqing Tan, Qiming Cheng, Fengwei Lyu, Fei Liu, Linhao Liu, Yihong Su, Shaochun Yuan, Wenyu Xiao, Zhen Liu, Yao Chen
Summary: The exacerbation of global warming, extreme weather events, and rapid urbanization have led to increased flooding in urban areas. China has adopted sponge city as an efficient means of preventing and controlling urban floods. Using a SWMM-FVCOM model, the hydrological reduction and control effect of sponge city construction (SPCC) within a university campus were evaluated. The study found that implementing SPCC effectively mitigates surface runoff and reduces the severity of urban flooding. However, the efficacy of runoff control decreases with longer rainfall return periods.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhonghan Chen, Qiuyan Li, Shibo Yan, Juan Xu, Qiaoyun Lin, Zhuangming Zhao, Ziying He
Summary: Tidal rivers are important biochemical reaction channels, receiving carbon from wastewater and agricultural drains, affecting CO2 emissions. Through modeling and data analysis, researchers explored carbon distribution, emissions, and greenhouse effects, emphasizing the potential of river management to change global CO2 emissions under climate change.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
(2024)