Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rizwan Aziz, Ismail Yucel
Summary: The study investigates the temporal variability of yearly and seasonal extreme precipitation across Turkey using stationary and nonstationary frequency approach. The impacts of nonstationarity are determined by calculating the percentage difference of return levels between stationary and nonstationary cases, showing different magnitude and type of impacts in different regions.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Peng Sun, Yifan Zou, Rui Yao, Zice Ma, Yaojin Bian, Chenhao Ge, Yinfeng Lv
Summary: Global warming has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of global extreme events. Compound and successive extreme events are more harmful than single extreme events. This study investigates the characteristics and future population exposure of compound and successive heatwave and extreme precipitation/runoff events.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Matilde Ungerovich, Marcelo Barreiro, Juan Kalemkerian
Summary: We investigate the role of initial conditions in simulating extreme rainfall events in Uruguay during summer using RegCM4.7. Two modes, weather like and climate mode, are implemented and compared. Overall, 50% of extreme events were skillfully simulated in weather like mode, while only 28% were skillfully simulated in climate mode. The difference is attributed to the better simulation of atmospheric circulation in weather like mode and the influence of ENSO teleconnections in climate mode.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jency M. Sojan, Roshan Srivastav, N. Meghana
Summary: This study aims to develop a nonstationary modeling approach to generate future regional IDF curves by incorporating the trend in rainfall over the Asian Monsoon Region (AMR). The results show that the change in extreme rainfall intensity for the future climate is mainly dependent on the extreme precipitation zones of the region for both near-future and far-future scenarios.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
R. Iestyn Woolway, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jakob Zscheischler, Clement Albergel
Summary: This paper evaluates the univariate and compound extreme events in lakes worldwide using satellite observations, revealing that the intensity of lake heatwaves and high chlorophyll-a extremes varies across lakes and is primarily influenced by the annual range in surface water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Compound extreme events occur more frequently than assumed in most studied lakes, potentially causing more severe impacts on lake ecosystems than previously reported due to the occurrence of univariate extremes.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Chi Zhang, Xuezhi Gu, Lei Ye, Qian Xin, Xiaoyang Li, Hairong Zhang
Summary: Recent years have seen an increase in extreme precipitation events, challenging the assumption of stationarity in frequency analyses. However, there is a lack of research in China on the link between extreme precipitation and climate change. This study aims to identify the dominant climate indices and time scales affecting extreme precipitation in China and assess the rainstorm risk under non-stationary conditions. Through correlation analyses, non-stationary models are constructed and the optimal predictors for extreme precipitation are determined. The results show that ignoring non-stationarity leads to misperceptions of rainstorm risks, and the spatial distribution of design rainstorms differs significantly under non-stationary conditions.
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hebatallah Mohamed Abdelmoaty, Simon Michael Papalexiou
Summary: With the use of semiparametric quantile mapping technique, this study analyzes the global annual maxima of daily precipitation and finds that global warming potentially intensifies extreme precipitation. It explores the variability of future precipitation and compares the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing its trends.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Donglin Guo, Ying Zhang, Xuejie Gao, Nick Pepin, Jianqi Sun
Summary: This study used four different global climate models to drive regional climate models to project changes in extreme high and low temperatures in China. The results show an overall increase in maximum temperatures, warm days, warm spell duration, and minimum temperatures, while cold nights decrease. The Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions show greater sensitivity to extreme temperature changes.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Alessandro Filazzola, Stephen F. Matter, J. Scott MacIvor
Summary: The review article provides a synthesis of the impact of extreme climate events on insect biodiversity, emphasizing the need for further research on the effects of extreme events on non-trophic interactions, population dynamics, and community functional traits. It highlights the importance of understanding the sensitivity and resilience of individuals, populations, and communities to climate extremes in order to mitigate the loss of insect biodiversity and ecosystem services.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Communication
Chris Russill
Summary: The attribution of extreme events to climate change is a common feature in public communication which seeks to address the risks of climate change. This has created tensions between scholars concerned with avoiding alarmism and those focusing on accountability to those most impacted by climate change. In order to improve climate communication, it is important to balance the fears of alarmism with assessments of accountability during discussions of disasters and denials.
SOCIAL MEDIA + SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Caroline A. Famiglietti, Anna M. Michalak, Alexandra G. Konings
Summary: The study found that extreme wet conditions may have a significant impact on photosynthesis, comparable to extreme drought conditions. Regions sensitive to wet conditions show non-uniform responses, controlled by multiple mechanisms. The consequences of extreme wet conditions on local and global carbon cycling are likely to be amplified in the future due to predicted increases in frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events with climate change.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jiyu Seo, Jeongeun Won, Jeonghyeon Choi, Jungmin Lee, Suhyung Jang, Okjeong Lee, Sangdan Kim
Summary: A methodology is proposed to investigate future rainfall extremes using future temperature data, which can reduce the uncertainty of future rainfall extremes outputs. The confidence interval of the rate of change of future rainfall extremes is quantified using Bayesian inference.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Saahil Shenoy, Dimitry Gorinevsky, Kevin E. Trenberth, Steven Chu
Summary: By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, we found that there is an increasing trend in extreme climate events in the continental United States over the past 41 years. The risk of high-temperature events has increased 2.1-fold, with a 2.6-fold increase from July to October. On the other hand, the risk of high rainfall extremes has increased 1.4-fold in December and January but decreased by 22% during the spring and summer months.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, D. A. Stone, D. M. Mitchell, S. Rosier, A. D. King, Y. T. E. Lo, J. Pastor-Paz, D. Frame, M. Wehner
Summary: Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events need to carefully consider methodological choices to avoid misinterpretation. The anthropogenic signal behind weather events may differ from the signal behind the impact system, and it is important to assess impacts in addition to meteorological events due to lags and nonlinearities.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Mingfang Ting, Cuihua Li, Kai Kornhuber, Ethan D. Coffel, Radley M. Horton, Colin Raymond, Deepti Singh
Summary: This study focused on the substantial threat that humid-heat poses to human health, finding that since 1979, the frequency of dry- and humid-heat extremes has increased over most land regions globally, with humid-heat extremes disproportionately increasing in populated regions compared to the global average growth rate.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Saloua Balhane, Fatima Driouech, Omar Chafki, Rodrigo Manzanas, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Willfran Moufouma-Okia
Summary: This study compared three multi-model combination methods in reducing uncertainty in climate change projections and found that model weighting can significantly decrease the spread of future projections, increasing their reliability. Nearly all model ensembles projected a significant warming and more severe drought in northern Morocco.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Tayeb Boulmaiz, Hamouda Boutaghane, Habib Abida, Mohamed Saber, Sameh A. Kantoush, Yves Tramblay
Summary: This study examines the rainfall trends over the Medjerda watershed and finds no significant annual trends in rainfall, but significant redistribution of rainfall throughout the year, with reduced spring precipitation and increased winter precipitation, which could impact agriculture and ecosystem functioning.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abdou Khouakhi, Fatima Driouech, Louise Slater, Toby Waine, Omar Chafki, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Otmane Raji
Summary: This study assessed the frequency and characteristics of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in Morocco from 1979 to 2020. The results showed that approximately 36 ARs make landfall in Morocco each year, with the highest occurrences in autumn and winter. The northern and Atlantic regions of Morocco receive the highest rainfall from ARs, while the driest regions in the south receive about one-third of their annual rainfall from ARs.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
D. Pena-Angulo, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Dominguez-Castro, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, C. Murphy, J. Hannaford, R. P. Allan, Y. Tramblay, F. Reig-Gracia, A. El Kenawy
Summary: This study presents a new data set of gauged streamflow for Europe and assesses changes in the characteristics of hydrological droughts across different regions. Results reveal complex spatial patterns of hydrological droughts in Europe over the past six decades, with more frequent and severe droughts in southern and central Europe and opposite trends in northern Europe.
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
(2022)
Review
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Chinwe Ifejika Speranza, Felicia Olufunmilayo Akinyemi, David Baratoux, Jerome Benveniste, Natalie Ceperley, Fatima Driouech, Joerg Helmschrot
Summary: Africa has the potential to benefit from Earth Observation (EO) science, products, and applications, but its use and application in the continent are currently limited. Most EO initiatives in Africa are driven by actors outside the continent, while country-level expenditures on EO remain low. Recent developments and initiatives show promise in closing these gaps and involving more African organizations and users in EO. While most EO users are government organizations or researchers, there are emerging opportunities for the private sector to directly deploy EO products and services to farmers and contribute to the development of indigenous EO capacity in Africa.
SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Bilel Fathalli, Benjamin Pohl, Pere Quintana-Segui, Yves Tramblay, Albin Ullmann, Thierry Castel
Summary: This study investigates the relationship between daily rainfall in Tunisia and large-scale atmospheric conditions. A weather regime classification is established and seven regimes are identified. The capabilities of different models in reproducing the observed rainfall characteristics under each regime are evaluated, with the WRF ensemble performing better overall.
Article
Water Resources
Yves Tramblay, El Mahdi El Khalki, Luca Ciabatta, Stefania Camici, Lahoucine Hanich, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi, Abdellatif Ezzahouani, Lahcen Benaabidate, Gil Mahe, Luca Brocca
Summary: The lack of observed rainfall data in African countries poses a major challenge for efficient water resources management. This study evaluates the ability of satellite rainfall products to estimate river runoff in 12 basins in Morocco using four hydrological models. The results show that the combination of the SM2RAIN-ASCAT satellite product and the IHACRES model produced the best results in replicating river runoff, with the highest efficiency criterion and probability of detection. The performance of the hydrological models varied across catchments and satellite rainfall products, emphasizing the importance of careful model selection for specific applications. This evaluation suggests that SM2RAIN-ASCAT could be a reliable alternative to observed rainfall for hydrological modeling.
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Jessica R. Ayers, Gabriele Villarini, Yves Tramblay, Hanbeen Kim
Summary: This study assessed the long term variability of rainfall and streamflow in Thuchila river, southern Malawi, from 1985 to 2016. The results revealed that there were certain trends in rainfall and streamflow in the Thuchila river catchment. Rainfall had an influence on the changes in streamflow of the Thuchila river.
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Abdenbi Elaloui, El Mahdi El Khalki, Mustapha Namous, Khalid Ziadi, Hasna Eloudi, Elhousna Faouzi, Latifa Bou-Imajjane, Morad Karroum, Yves Tramblay, Abdelghani Boudhar, Abdelghani Chehbouni
Summary: The focus of this research was to assess the impact of climate change on the rate of soil erosion in the High Atlas of Morocco. The results indicate that climate change is projected to significantly increase the potential for soil erosion by the end of the century.
Article
Water Resources
Christopher Kouakou, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Frederic Satge, Yves Tramblay, Dimitri Defrance, Nathalie Rouche
Summary: This study evaluated the effectiveness of 15 precipitation datasets for hydrological modeling in West and Central Africa, and found that CHIRPS is the most effective product, followed by WFDEI-CRU, CRU, WFDEI-GPCC, and GPCC. Regional hydrological modeling is more effective for smaller basins (<80,000 km2). The use of spatial proximity for regionalization reduces the ability of various precipitation products to reproduce discharge, especially for WFDEI-GPCC and GPCC. CHIRPS remains the best product in terms of KGE2 values for regionalization.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Khadija Arjdal, Fatima Driouech, Etienne Vignon, Frederique Cheruy, Rodrigo Manzanas, Philippe Drobinski, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Abderrahmane Idelkadi
Summary: The Mediterranean basin and Northern Africa are expected to be highly vulnerable to climate change. This study examines the projected changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, net water supply, and surface soil moisture in these regions based on simulations from 17 global climate models. The models indicate a significant drying trend over the Mediterranean and coastal North Africa, with both scenarios showing a decrease in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the Sahara region. The CMIP6 models show more intense changes compared to CMIP5, particularly during winter.
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moustapha Tall, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Alima Dajuma, Mansour Almazroui, Djan'na Koubodana Houteta, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Fatima Driouech, Arona Diedhiou, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts, their changes, and hot spot locations across Africa using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data from different sources. The results identify five regions with similar drought variability and show that the most common periods of drought occurrence are the 1970s, 1980s, and to a lesser extent, the 1990s. Changes in drought characteristics indicate increased duration, frequency, and severity in certain regions during the intermediate and recent past compared to the far past. These findings are useful for drought risk management in Africa and future drought analysis under global warming conditions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Christian Massari, Victor Pellet, Yves Tramblay, Wade T. Crow, Gaby J. Grundemann, Tristian Hascoetf, Daniele Penna, Sara Modanesi, Luca Brocca, Stefania Camici, Francesco Marra
Summary: This study investigates the control of pre-storm conditions on runoff coefficients in European basins. The results indicate that precipitation has a relatively good explanatory power for stormflow volumes, but not for peak discharge. The correlation between pre-storm conditions and runoff coefficients varies among different basin types, which is crucial for flood forecasting and model calibration.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, Eric Sauquet
Summary: Floods are a major natural hazard in the Mediterranean region, causing deaths and extensive damages. Recent studies have shown that intense rainfall events are becoming more extreme in this region but, paradoxically, without leading to an increase in the severity of floods. Consequently, it is important to understand how flood events are changing to explain this absence of trends in flood magnitude despite increased rainfall extremes.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yves Tramblay, Pere Quintana Segui
Summary: Soil moisture is crucial for drought monitoring, but the networks for measuring soil moisture are limited. This study regionalized a soil moisture accounting model using a high-resolution land-surface model as reference. Two approaches for estimating soil water holding capacity were compared, and the results showed that the random forest model estimates were more robust, especially for low soil moisture levels. Therefore, this proposed approach can simulate daily soil moisture and monitor soil moisture droughts in the absence of high-resolution soil maps.
NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2022)