Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Masahiro Minowa, Pedro Skvarca, Koji Fujita
Summary: The mass budget of southern Patagonian glaciers is heavily affected by surface ablation, with an average point surface mass balance of -16.3 m water equivalent (w.e.) yr -1 between 1996 and 2020. The analysis found that the mean annual temperature has increased at a rate of 0.28C decade -1 over the study period. The largest contribution to the surface energy balance was the sensible heat flux.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
X. San Liang, Fen Xu, Yineng Rong, Renhe Zhang, Xu Tang, Feng Zhang
Summary: This study shows that the El Nino Modoki phenomenon, which has lower forecast skill than the classical models, can actually be predicted more than 10 years in advance by tracing the information flow from solar activity 45 years ago to sea surface temperature. Using a multidimensional system based on this causal structure, accurate predictions of events 12 years in advance have been achieved through a causal AI approach.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Mariano S. Morales, Doris B. Crispin-DelaCruz, Claudio Alvarez, Duncan A. Christie, M. Eugenia Ferrero, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Ricardo Villalba, Anthony Guerra, Ginette Ticse-Otarola, Ernesto C. Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rosmery LLocclla-Martinez, Joali Sanchez-Ferrer, Edilson J. Requena-Rojas
Summary: Due to the short span of instrumental precipitation records in the South American Altiplano, longer-term hydroclimatic records are needed to understand climate variability. The study focuses on the northern sector of the Peruvian and Chilean Altiplano, where high-resolution hydroclimatic data based on tree-ring records is lacking. The study reveals an increase in extreme dry events and a decreasing trend in precipitation since the 1970s, as well as the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation in the study region.
CLIMATE OF THE PAST
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yuntao Jian, Marco Y. T. Leung, Wen Zhou, Maoqiu Jian, Song Yang
Summary: Most CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate the correct relationship between ENSO and winter synoptic temperature variability (STV) over the Asian-Pacific-American region. The bias in the simulated ENSO-STV relationship can be traced back to the ENSO simulation, with patterns of warm sea surface temperature anomalies resulting in an unrealistic circulation and temperature gradient that affects the simulations of this connection. High pattern score (HPS) models show a robust ENSO-STV relationship in future projections, indicating potential implications for selecting future climate predictors.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Marcellin Guilbert, Pascal Terray, Juliette Mignot
Summary: Robust projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are critical as it provides 80% of the annual precipitation to more than 1 billion people who are very vulnerable to climate change. However, even over the historical period, state-of-the-art climate models have difficulties in reproducing the observed ISMR trends and are affected by a large intermodel spread, which questions the reliability of ISMR projections. Such uncertainty could come from internal variability or model biases.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Shayne McGregor, Christophe Cassou, Yu Kosaka, Adam S. Phillips
Summary: This study investigates the potential changes in teleconnections of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to future climate change. The majority of regions show an amplification of teleconnections, while some regions display a dampening effect. Furthermore, the magnitude of these teleconnection changes is correlated with the projected warming level.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Achille Jouberton, Thomas E. Shaw, Evan Miles, Michael McCarthy, Stefan Fugger, Shaoting Ren, Amaury Dehecq, Wei Yang, Francesca Pellicciotti
Summary: Glacier mass loss in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau has accelerated due to increased warming, with the majority of the loss occurring during the monsoon months. Changes in precipitation amount and ratio have played a significant role in the mass loss, with increased solid precipitation in spring mitigating the loss. However, prolonged exposure to warmer temperatures has unsustainably intensified ice melt and catchment discharge, raising concerns for long-term water supply and hazards in the region.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Daniele Bocchiola, Francesco Chirico, Andrea Soncini, Roberto Sergio Azzoni, Guglielmina Adele Diolaiuti, Antonella Senese
Summary: This study mapped the flow velocity and calving rates of the Perito Moreno Glacier in the Argentinian Patagonia using satellite images. The results showed that the glacier's flow velocity and calving rates vary seasonally, with the highest values observed in summer. The calving rates were slightly lower than previous studies, indicating a generally stable state of the glacier.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Fiona Fix, Stefan A. Buehler, Frank Lunkeit
Summary: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important modes of climate variability on interannual timescales. This study aims to investigate the predictability of ENSO frequency change in the near future. The analysis of various climate models suggests that the uncertainty in ENSO frequency trends is mainly due to apparent trends and natural variability, rather than different model reactions to CO2 forcing. The study highlights the challenges in making reliable predictions of ENSO frequency changes based on limited time series data.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chen Chen, Sandeep Sahany, Aurel F. Moise, Muhammad E. Hassim, Gerald Lim, Enkatraman Prasanna
Summary: The Maritime Continent (MC) has a significant impact on global climate, but its future climate, especially the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection, remains largely unknown. New CMIP6 models show that the negative ENSO teleconnection over the MC could significantly intensify under the SSP585 warming scenario, leading to enhanced droughts and flooding, agricultural impacts, and altered rainfall predictability. These projections are supported by model agreement and scale up with the warming trend, with noticeable adjustments during boreal summer.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jun Ying, Tao Lian, Ping Huang, Gang Huang, Dake Chen, Shangfeng Chen
Summary: The study suggests that surface net heat flux anomalies during extreme El Nino events generally do not impact the formation of SSTAs spatial pattern, while those during moderate El Nino events can influence the spatial pattern of SSTAs by producing more damping effects in certain regions. This highlights the importance of considering these atmospheric adjustments for a comprehensive understanding of El Nino diversity.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Shahab Uddin, Menaka Revel, Prakat Modi, Dai Yamazaki
Summary: This study assessed the impacts of ENSO and climate change on flood occurrence in Bangladesh using a large-ensemble climate simulation dataset and a global river model. The results showed that historical global warming increased flooding in Bangladesh, while the impact of ENSO on flood occurrence probability decreased in the historical simulation.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Zhiyong Jiang, Jianru Wang, Xiaobin Cai, Junli Zhao, Huawei Zhang, Yi Zhang, Chongshan Wang
Summary: Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are important indicators of global climate change. This study analyzed the changes in Hala Lake and its driving factors using satellite and meteorological data. The results showed that decreased glacial melting and increased precipitation were the main causes of the rapid expansion of Hala Lake.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Georg Veh, Natalie Luetzow, Varvara Kharlamova, Dmitry Petrakov, Romain Hugonnet, Oliver Korup
Summary: Thousands of glacier lakes have formed in high mountains since the early 20th century following glacier retreat. Some of these lakes have released large amounts of water and sediment with disastrous consequences downstream. However, it is unclear whether the reported rise in glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is due to a warming atmosphere or simply increased research efforts. This study finds that the number of reported GLOFs has decreased since the 1970s, coinciding with changes in annual air temperatures and number of field-based glacier surveys. The findings suggest a weak coupling between temperature-driven glacier processes and GLOF occurrences, or the possibility of overlooked outbursts.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jakob Abermann, Manuel Theurl, Elisabeth Frei, Bernhard Hynek, Wolfgang Schoener, Karl W. Steininger
Summary: Glaciers are seen as symbols of pristine high mountain landscapes by humans, attracting millions of visitors annually and providing crucial ecosystem services. Despite the high costs exceeding three times the revenue from tourism, artificial management can still conserve glaciers with abundant water availability under ongoing climate change.
REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hans Segura, Jhan Carlo Espinoza, Clementine Junquas, Thierry Lebel, Mathias Vuille, Rene Garreaud
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
David Palacios, Chris R. Stokes, Fred M. Phillips, John J. Clague, Jesus Alcala-Reygosa, Nuria Andres, Isandra Angel, Pierre-Henri Blard, Jason P. Briner, Brenda L. Hall, Dennis Dahms, Andrew S. Hein, Vincent Jomelli, Bryan G. Mark, Mateo A. Martini, Patricio Moreno, Jon Riedel, Esteban Sagredo, Nathan D. Stansell, Lorenzo Vazquez-Selem, Mathias Vuille, Dylan J. Ward
EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2020)
Article
Ecology
Ernesto Tejedor, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Martin de Luis, Miguel Angel Saz, Claudia Hartl, Scott George, Ulf Buntgen, Andrew M. Liebhold, Mathias Vuille, Jan Esper
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Ernesto Tejedor, Pablo Sarricolea, Oliver Meseguer-Ruiz, Mathias Vuille, Magdalena Fuentealba, Martin de Luis
Summary: The study of long-term hydroclimatic variability in Santiago, Chile revealed a significant shift in the mid-20th century, including increased interannual variability, reduced intensity of wet events, increased frequency of extreme dry events, and the identification of the most severe dry event coinciding with the "Megadrought" (2006-2016). The analysis also showed diverse impacts on hydroclimatic variability, with positive correlations between SPEI and PDO as well as Nino3.4, and negative correlations between SPEI and SOI, particularly at multi-annual time scales (>7 years), helping to understand current hydroclimatic changes in a broader context.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Oscar Chimborazo, Mathias Vuille
Summary: The study predicts future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador for the middle of the twenty-first century using the WRF model, contributing to understanding future climate change impacts in the region. Results show that Ecuador could experience an additional warming of 1-2 K by the middle of the century compared to the end of the twentieth century, with a drying trend along coastal areas in RCP4.5 and increased precipitation along the eastern Andean slopes in both scenarios.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Ernesto Tejedor, Nathan J. Steiger, Jason E. Smerdon, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Mathias Vuille
Summary: Large tropical volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on global climate, leading to dry or wet conditions in different regions that can persist for over a decade. The southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are associated with these climate anomalies. The proxy-constrained PHYDA estimates show larger and more persistent responses compared to simulations by the CESM model, highlighting the importance of determining which estimates are more realistic for accurately assessing the hydroclimate risks of future volcanic eruptions.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2021)
Article
Geography, Physical
Valdir Felipe Novello, Francisco William da Cruz, Mathias Vuille, Jose Leandro Pereira Silveira Campos, Nicolas Misailidis Strikis, James Apaestegui, Jean Sebastien Moquet, Vitor Azevedo, Angela Ampuero, Giselle Utida, Xianfeng Wang, Gustavo Macedo Paula-Santos, Plinio Jaqueto, Luiz Carlos Ruiz Pessenda, Daniel O. Breecker, Ivo Karmann
Summary: This study focuses on investigating the influence of local hydroclimate, altitude, temperature, and vegetation types on the delta C-13 values in stalagmites. The results show that the main factors influencing delta C-13 values are associated with the local hydroclimate, and there is a significant correlation between delta C-13 and delta O-18 values in most records.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
E. Tejedor, N. Steiger, J. E. Smerdon, R. Serrano-Notivoli, M. Vuille
Summary: By analyzing the impact of large tropical volcanic eruptions on surface temperatures over the past millennium using machine learning and climate models, discrepancies in the estimated magnitude and persistence of temperature cooling were found to be similar once the effects of consecutive eruptions were removed. The estimates compared well with reconstructions based on tree-ring density and simulations from the NCAR CESM-LME, but differences remained in the spatial patterns of temperature responses and the duration of cooling anomalies between the data assimilation products and model simulations.
PALEOCEANOGRAPHY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Milagros Rodriguez-Caton, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Valerie Daux, Mathias Vuille, Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke, Rose Oelkers, Duncan A. Christie, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Mariano S. Morales, Mukund Palat Rao, Ana M. Srur, Francoise Vimeux, Ricardo Villalba
Summary: The climate variability in tropical South America is regulated by the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM). In this study, stable oxygen isotopes from tree rings were used to analyze past precipitation changes and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Chilean and Bolivian Altiplano. The results showed that the tree rings can effectively register summer precipitation and ENSO variability, making it a novel climate proxy for the southern tropical Andes.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Andres Antico, Mathias Vuille
Summary: By analyzing long instrumental records, researchers have found that the connectivity between Parana flow and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies over time. There was a connection between flow and ENSO in 1876-1940 and 1983-2016, but it was disconnected in 1941-1982. The relationship between flow variability and ENSO fluctuations differs in the two periods.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Byron A. Steinman, Nathan D. Stansell, Michael E. Mann, Colin A. Cooke, Mark B. Abbott, Mathias Vuille, Broxton W. Bird, Matthew S. Lachniet, Alejandro Fernandez
Summary: Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability, yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. The study quantifies the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the past millennium and shows an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Geography, Physical
Marcela Eduarda Della Libera, Valdir Felipe Novello, Francisco William Cruz, Rebecca Orrison, Mathias Vuille, Shira Yoshi Maezumi, Jonas de Souza, Julio Cauhy, Jose Leandro Pereira Silveira Campos, Angela Ampuero, Giselle Utida, Nicolas Misailidis Strikis, Cintia Fernandes Stumpf, Vitor Azevedo, Haiwei Zhang, R. Lawrence Edwards, Hai Cheng
Summary: This study examines the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental history of the Amazon basin and the behavior of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using high-resolution delta O-18 and delta C-13 records from speleothems. The study reveals the influence of SAMS on precipitation patterns in the Amazon basin and highlights the changes in the region's climate over the centuries.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
James Apaestegui, Carol Romero, Mathias Vuille, Juan Sulca, Angela Ampuero
Summary: This study presents eight years of monthly isotopic precipitation data in the Mantaro River Basin, with the aim of understanding the factors influencing isotopic variability and evaluating the impact of regional climate events. The results suggest that the rainout upstream and air mass transport, as well as local processes, play important roles in determining isotopic variability. The study provides recommendations for hydroclimate studies and paleoclimate reconstructions in the region.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Rebecca Orrison, Mathias Vuille, Jason E. Smerdon, James Apaestegui, Vitor Azevedo, Jose Leandro P. S. Campos, Francisco W. Cruz, Marcela Eduarda Della Libera, Nicolas M. Strikis
Summary: The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is the main driver of hydroclimate variability across South America. By analyzing stable oxygen isotope proxies, researchers identified two modes of variability representing thermodynamic changes in the monsoon circulation and the latitudinal displacement of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The findings suggest significant temporal variability of the SASM over the last millennium (LM), with an intensification during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and a southwest displacement of the SACZ. However, climate models underestimate the centennial-scale changes in SASM intensity, highlighting the need for model development.
CLIMATE OF THE PAST
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Oscar Chimborazo, Justin R. Minder, Mathias Vuille
Summary: Many mountain regions, including the Andes of Ecuador, are experiencing enhanced warming compared to their surroundings, which threatens the environmental services provided by mountains. This elevation-dependent warming (EDW) effect is evident in observations and simulations, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. Multiple feedback mechanisms, such as upper-tropospheric warming and changes in circulation, contribute to the EDW effect. Additionally, reductions in snow cover and increased absorption of sunlight further enhance the warming. Regardless of emission scenario, high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at accelerated rates in the future.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)