期刊
JOURNAL OF WIND ENGINEERING AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS
卷 145, 期 -, 页码 229-236出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jweia.2015.06.018
关键词
Wind speed; Weibull distribution; Generalized Pareto distribution; Compound Poisson process
In this paper we use risk management techniques to evaluate the effects of some risk factors that affect the energy production of a wind farm. We focus our attention on three major risks: wind speed variability, wind turbine failures and correlations between produced energy. As a first contribution, we show that the Weibull distribution, commonly used to fit recorded wind speed data, underestimates rare events. Therefore, in order to achieve a better estimation of the tail of the wind speed distribution, we advance a Generalized Pareto distribution. We considered one aspect of the wind turbines reliability by modeling their failure events as a compound Poisson process. Finally, the use of Copula enables us to consider the correlation between wind turbines that compose the wind farm. Once this procedure is set up, we show a sensitivity analysis and we also compare the results from the proposed procedure with a simplistic energy prediction using the Weibull distribution. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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