期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 41, 期 11, 页码 3914-3924出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060095
关键词
-
资金
- Geography Graduate School of the Academy of Finland
- Academy of Finland [1140873]
Climatically driven Earth surface processes (ESPs) govern landscape and ecosystem dynamics in high-latitude regions. However, climate change is expected to alter ESP activity at yet uncertain rate and amplitude. We examined the sensitivity of key ESPs (cryoturbation, solifluction, nivation, and palsa mires) to changing climate by modeling their distribution in regard to climate, local topography, and soil variables in northern Fennoscandia. The distributions of ESPs were then forecasted under two future time periods, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using ensemble modeling and three emission scenarios. Increase of 2 degrees C in current temperature conditions caused an almost complete loss of ESPs, highlighting the extreme climatic sensitivity of high-latitude geomorphic processes. Forecasts based on three scenarios suggest a disappearance of suitable climate for studied ESPs by the end of this century. This could initiate multiple opposing feedback between land surface and atmosphere through changes in albedo, heat fluxes, and biogeochemical cycles.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据