Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
David I. Armstrong Mckay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah E. Cornell, Johan Rockstrom, Timothy M. Lenton
Summary: This study provides a revised shortlist of global core tipping elements and regional impact tipping elements and their temperature thresholds through synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based research. The current global warming is already approaching the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges, and several tipping points may be triggered within the range of global warming set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change and develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Limei Yan, Fei He, Xinan Yue, Yong Wei, Yuqi Wang, Si Chen, Kai Fan, Hui Tian, Jiansen He, Qiugang Zong, Lidong Xia
Summary: This study provides definitive observational evidence that an 8-year solar cycle existed during the Maunder Minimum, which has important implications for solar dynamo models and the generation mechanism of grand solar minima.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hiroko Miyahara, Fuyuki Tokanai, Toru Moriya, Mirei Takeyama, Hirohisa Sakurai, Motonari Ohyama, Kazuho Horiuchi, Hideyuki Hotta
Summary: High-precision carbon-14 analyses have revealed the occurrence of large solar proton events (SPEs) in 1261-1262, 1268-1269, and 1279-1280 CE prior to the Wolf minimum. These events are presumed to have taken place during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycles, as well as during the transition into a deep minimum of solar activity. This study offers a unique opportunity to understand the potential interaction between solar dynamo and extreme solar flares.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Leonid Kitchatinov, Anna Khlystova
Summary: This study proposes a dynamo model to explain the phenomenon of long-term north-south asymmetry in sunspot activity, showing how the superposition of dipolar and quadrupolar fields leads to this asymmetry. The model computations reveal the phase-locking and irregular transitions of dipolar and quadrupolar fields oscillations. Additionally, the possibility of polar field asymmetry as a precursor of sunspot asymmetry in following activity cycles is discussed based on the dynamo model and observations.
ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Rangjian Qiu, Longan Li, Lifeng Wu, Evgenios Agathokleous, Chunwei Liu, Baozhong Zhang, Yufeng Luo, Shanlei Sun
Summary: Accurate determination of global solar radiation (Rs) is crucial in many fields. This study developed a new model N1-4 for estimating daily Rs in different angstrom T zones in China, which was found to be the most accurate among all models. The model was recommended for forecasting daily Rs in zones with high angstrom T for a long lead time and in zones with low angstrom T for a short lead time.
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Meng Wei, Qi Shu, Zhenya Song, Yajuan Song, Xiaodan Yang, Yongqing Guo, Xinfang Li, Fangli Qiao
Summary: The study found that although there have been some improvements in the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5, most models still fail to reproduce the global warming slowdown. However, the models that were able to successfully reproduce the slowdown demonstrated relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and three key-scale natural variabilities.
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Geography, Physical
Sabrina Gjodvad Kaiser Kudsk, Mads Faurschou Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Claudia Baittinger, Stergios Misios, Jesper Olsen
Summary: This study investigates solar variability between 650 CE and 1900 based on new and published C-14 records. It identifies a Maunder-type minimum in 656-707 CE and suggests a potential prolongation of the 11-year solar cycle before the onset of major solar minima. The study also reviews the impact of near-Earth supernova events on C-14 production rates.
QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hu Xiao-Ming, Ma Jie-Ru, Ying Jun, Cai Ming, Kong Yun-Qi
Summary: The emergent constraint approach uses multi-model ensembles to link current/past climate variability to future climate changes, reducing uncertainty in multi-model projections. CMIP6 models show stronger Arctic warming but with larger spread, with projections positively correlated to simulated global warming trends during 1981-2011. Using observed global warming during the instrumental era can provide tighter constraints on future Arctic warming.
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christopher W. Callahan, Nathaniel J. Dominy, Jeremy M. DeSilva, Justin S. Mankin
Summary: Since 2000, the number of home runs in baseball games has increased due to global warming, with higher temperatures leading to more home runs.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Taejin Park, Hirofumi Hashimoto, Weile Wang, Bridget Thrasher, Andrew R. R. Michaelis, Tsengdar Lee, Ian G. G. Brosnan, Ramakrishna R. R. Nemani
Summary: Constraining global mean temperature increase to below 2 degrees C compared to pre-industrial levels is crucial in limiting the dangers of climate change. This study analyzes projected changes in key climate variables under a high emission scenario and finds that significant impacts will occur even if the 2 degrees C goal is achieved.
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Hisashi Hayakawa, Tomoya Iju, Koji Murata, Bruno P. Besser
Summary: The study analyzed Daniel Mogling's original sunspot observations from 1626-1629, revising the observational dates and group numbers, and compared them with contemporary observations. Results indicated that sunspots in the 1620s migrated to lower heliographic latitudes, emphasizing their location in the declining phase of solar cycle -12.
ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
(2021)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Hisashi Hayakawa, Kristian Schlegel, Bruno P. Besser, Yusuke Ebihara
Summary: The Maunder Minimum was a period of minimal sunspot activity from 1645 to 1715, but candidate aurorae were still reported, possibly linked to interplanetary coronal mass ejections.
ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Christian Otto, Kilian Kuhla, Tobias Geiger, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler
Summary: Global warming may increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. A study analyzes how this could impact economic growth using an event-based macroeconomic growth model. The study finds that economic growth losses in the United States increase disproportionately with the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks, which can hinder the economy's recovery between consecutive intense landfall events. By estimating the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, the study projects annual growth losses to rise between 10 and 146% in a 2 degrees Celsius world compared to the period of 1980-2014. The modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can offset these climate change-induced growth losses.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xinying Wu, Yang Yang, Dabang Jiang
Summary: Compound dry and hot events, characterized by high temperature and scarce rainfall, have negative impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and public health worldwide. Understanding the risk of these events, especially the severe ones, is crucial for developing effective measures to mitigate their impacts. However, most existing studies focus on the long-term trends of these events in the past, and there is limited information about future changes, especially in China. This study quantifies the future probability of severe compound dry and hot events in Southwest China, and the results suggest that the severity of these events is expected to increase in the future under different emission and societal development scenarios. Urgent adaptation and mitigation efforts are necessary to address these impacts.
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Haijiang Wu, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh
Summary: Compound climate extremes pose a threat to water-food-energy security and their occurrence is projected to increase in a warming scenario. The risk is mainly attributed to changes in temperature and changes in dependence between precipitation and temperature.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Roseanna C. McKay, Julie M. Arblaster, Pandora Hope, Eun-Pa Lim
Summary: The study found that extreme heat events in Australia are associated with anomalous atmospheric circulation, with the tropical Indian Ocean potentially playing a key role. However, current forecast models tend to overemphasize the relationship with the tropical Pacific Ocean when predicting spring extreme heat, potentially underestimating the magnitude of future events.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peter A. Panka, Alexander A. Kutepov, Yajun Zhu, Martin Kaufmann, Konstantinos S. Kalogerakis, Ladislav Rezac, Artem G. Feofilov, Daniel R. Marsh, Diego Janches
Summary: This study presents a novel approach for retrieving atomic oxygen and total hydroxyl densities in the middle and upper atmosphere from nighttime observations, showing good agreement in atomic oxygen densities obtained from different instruments but large discrepancies in hydroxyl densities.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Frederic Castruccio, Matthew H. England, Susan C. Bates, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Shayne McGregor, Julie M. Arblaster, Shang-Ping Xie, Nan Rosenbloom
Summary: Model experiments show a weak opposite-sign SST response in the tropical Pacific when observed SSTs are specified in the Atlantic, and a weak same-sign response in the tropical Atlantic when observed SSTs are specified in the tropical Pacific. Net surface heat flux in the Atlantic and ocean dynamics in the Pacific play contrasting roles in the ocean response to specified SSTs in the respective basins. Processes in the Pacific and Atlantic are sequentially interactive through the atmospheric Walker circulation for the Atlantic response to the Pacific, with contributions from midlatitude teleconnections.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
K. A. Duderstadt, C. -L. Huang, H. E. Spence, S. Smith, J. B. Blake, A. B. Crew, A. T. Johnson, D. M. Klumpar, D. R. Marsh, J. G. Sample, M. Shumko, F. M. Vitt
Summary: This study investigates the impact of electron precipitation from Earth's radiation belts on atmospheric composition, using data from NASA Van Allen Probes and NSF FIREBIRD II CubeSats. Results suggest that current parameterizations may underestimate the duration of events and higher energy electron contributions to atmospheric ionization and NOx concentrations.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Robert J. Leamon, Scott W. McIntosh, Daniel R. Marsh
Summary: The Sun's energy sustains life on Earth and influences atmospheric circulation; recent research has shown a connection between sunspot variability and magnetic polarity cycles, providing insights into climate change. By observing solar activity and oceanic indices, future climate variations can be predicted.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Giovanni Liguori, Shayne McGregor, Martin Singh, Julie Arblaster, Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary: Tropical modes of variability, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), have a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. However, the commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD display significant co-variability, making it difficult to quantify the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. In this study, through modeling experiments, it is found that the ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation when the influence of IOD is statistically removed. A conceptual model is proposed to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Dongxia Yang, Julie M. Arblaster, Gerald A. Meehl, Matthew H. England
Summary: This study contrasts the response of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet to tropical Pacific decadal variability, finding that the South Pacific jet is mainly influenced by direct atmospheric teleconnections from the central and eastern tropical Pacific SST. The coupled PAC-C experiment captures the poleward shift of the South Atlantic-Indian jet, indicating that air-sea coupling plays a crucial role in driving the teleconnections between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and South Atlantic-Indian jet variations.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Chenrui Diao, Zhili Wang, Susan Bates, Julie Arblaster
Summary: The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear. There are concerns regarding the accuracy of approximating the PE response to a single forcing using simulations that exclude one specific forcing. Previous studies suggesting a larger sensitivity of PE to aerosol forcing compared to greenhouse gases are questioned. This study reevaluates the PE sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols using CESM1 ensemble simulations and confirms that PE sensitivity to aerosols is stronger than that due to greenhouse gases within similar warming regimes, but the difference is smaller than previously estimated. The study also suggests that the additivity assumption is largely valid for isolating the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the simulations when the warming regime is small.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Z. E. Gillett, H. H. Hendon, J. M. Arblaster, H. Lin, D. Fuchs
Summary: Stationary Rossby waves forced by the Indian Ocean dipole play a significant role in Southern Hemisphere weather and climate. The dynamics of these teleconnections are not fully understood, but recent studies suggest that these waves can overcome the negative beta* barrier and propagate into the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere.
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
P. F. Freisen, J. M. Arblaster, C. Jakob, J. M. Rodriguez
Summary: Observations and climate models have shown the widening of the tropical Hadley cell circulation since the late 1970s. However, discrepancies in expansion rates between observations and models exist, and the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is still not well understood. This study finds that correcting extratropical biases improves the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere tropical edge more consistently than correcting tropical biases.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Z. E. Gillett, H. H. Hendon, J. M. Arblaster, H. Lin
Summary: The response of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation to anomalous convection in the tropical western and eastern Pacific Ocean is different. The response to westward-located heating has a meridio-nal dipole in the South Pacific, while the response to eastward-located heating disperses poleward and eastward. This study investigates the cause of this asymmetry and shows that the subtropical jet and transient eddy feedback play important roles in establishing the response.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Monika E. Szelag, Daniel R. Marsh, Pekka T. Verronen, Annika Seppala, Niilo Kalakoski
Summary: This study examines the impact of solar energetic particle precipitation (EPP) on the polar stratosphere using a chemistry-climate model. The findings suggest that the current EPP forcing used in climate simulations underestimates its effects on ozone and temperature. The study highlights the need for an improved representation of decadal EPP forcing in climate simulations.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ghyslaine Boschat, Ariaan Purich, Irina Rudeva, Julie Arblaster
Summary: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes the annular or zonal component of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics and affects surface climate across the SH. In addition to the dominant annular flow in austral summer, zonal wave 3 (ZW3) patterns with zonal asymmetries are evident in other seasons. This study explores the influence of both SAM and ZW3 on surface climate, finding that ZW3 modulates the impact of SAM and plays a significant role in the surface climate impacts of large-scale SH circulation states, particularly in nonsummer seasons.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
A. Ji, J. F. Kasting, G. J. Cooke, D. R. Marsh, K. Tsigaridis
Summary: Recently, Cooke et al. used a three-dimensional coupled chemistry-climate model to study ozone column depths at various O2 levels, finding that previous one-dimensional models may have overestimated ozone depth and methane lifetime. Comparing their model with others, they identified multiple parameters contributing to the discrepancies in ozone column depths, including H2O, transport rates, and chemical mechanisms. Including absorption and scattering in specific wavelength regions can reduce differences in OH concentration and methane lifetime. Developing accurate parameterizations for ozone photolysis and repeating calculations in different models may resolve these issues.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Ioannis A. Daglis, Loren C. Chang, Sergio Dasso, Nat Gopalswamy, Olga Khabarova, Emilia Kilpua, Ramon Lopez, Daniel Marsh, Katja Matthes, Dibyendu Nandy, Annika Seppala, Kazuo Shiokawa, Remi Thieblemont, Qiugang Zong
Summary: In October 2017, SCOSTEP established a committee for the design of the Next Scientific Programme (NSP), which focuses on the predictability of the Sun-Earth System and was named PRESTO. This paper provides a detailed account of PRESTO, including key milestones for the next 5 years, current state of the art, and future studies needed for the development of solar-terrestrial physics.
ANNALES GEOPHYSICAE
(2021)