Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yun-Young Lee, WonMoo Kim, Soo-Jin Sohn, Bo Ra Kim, Sunny K. Seuseu
Summary: This study developed a hybrid seasonal prediction system to provide reliable national climate outlooks for Pacific Island Countries. By optimizing predictors and applying Bayesian regression methods, the system generated rainfall forecasts for 49 stations in 13 countries, with improved performance and temporal and spatial stability compared to existing systems.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jung Choi, Seok-Woo Son
Summary: This study evaluates the prediction skills of ENSO and PDO using large ensembles of retrospective decadal predictions. The results show that ENSO can be successfully predicted one year in advance using a multi-model ensemble reforecast, but predicting winter ENSO for multiple years requires a larger ensemble size. The prediction of PDO at a lead time of five-to-nine years is sourced from external radiative forcing instead of initialization, and the effect of model initialization only lasts for two years.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Haibo Liu, Xiaogu Zheng, Jing Yuan, Carsten S. Frederiksen
Summary: A covariance decomposition method is used to separate the interannual variability in the seasonal mean time series of global precipitation into an unpredictable component and a potentially predictable component. In tropical oceans, ENSO is the dominant driver of the potentially predictable component, while MJO is the dominant driver of the unpredictable component.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Nick Dunstone, Doug M. Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Paul Davies, Sarah Ineson, Shipra Jain, Chris Kent, Gill Martin, Adam A. Scaife
Summary: Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are crucial for a resilient society. However, current methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not effective in identifying rare and impactful extremes. This article argues that a strong summer La Nina provided an opportunity to issue a more confident forecast for extreme rainfall. The authors emphasize the need for improved tools and routine monitoring of forecasts to identify and issue trustworthy early warnings for regional climate extremes.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Dejian Yang, Youmin Tang, Xiu-Qun Yang, Xiangzhou Song, Xiaoxiao Tan, Yanling Wu, Xiaoqin Yan, Ting Liu, Xuguang Sun
Summary: Understanding the relationship between probabilistic and deterministic predictabilities is crucial for climate predictability studies. This study investigates the relationship between probabilistic and deterministic seasonal potential predictabilities and confirms that there are theoretical relationships between these two types of predictabilities. While the actual skills may differ, the study validates that there are quasi-monotonic relationships between probabilistic and deterministic potential predictabilities.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Fenghua Ling, Jing-Jia Luo, Yue Li, Tao Tang, Lei Bai, Wanli Ouyang, Toshio Yamagata
Summary: This study challenges the long-standing problem of IOD prediction and proposes a multi-task deep learning model called MTL-NET. The model outperforms world-class dynamical models in predicting IOD and correctly captures the non-linear relationships between IOD and predictors.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Melissa N. Staines, Hayley Versace, Jacques-Olivier Laloe, Caitlin E. Smith, Christine A. Madden Hof, David T. Booth, Ian R. Tibbetts, Graeme C. Hays
Summary: Projection models were used to analyze the trends in sand temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at an equatorial nesting site for green turtles and hawksbill turtles. The study found that this nesting site in Papua New Guinea is less threatened by climate-induced feminisation compared to another nesting site in the Coral Sea. However, future interventions may be needed to increase male production.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Xun Sun, Heiko Apel, Ankit Agarwal, Sonja Totz, Bruno Merz
Summary: This study investigates the impact of catchment or climate state on the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow. By fitting the Generalized Extreme Value distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow data from 600 stations across Europe, the researchers found that there is potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies depending on the season and region, with season-ahead catchment wetness showing the highest potential.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
M. Kathleen Brennan, Gregory J. Hakim, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Summary: We evaluated Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) trained on last millennium model data for Arctic sea-ice prediction. More than 500 years of training data and 100 years of validation data are needed for reliable estimation of LIM forecast skill. The best LIM has skill up to 8 months lead time and outperforms an autoregressive model (AR1), particularly near the ice edge. However, out-of-sample validation tests show underperformance due to differences in the sea-ice edge location between training and validation data, when using data from various sources.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Wushan Ying, Huiping Yan, Jing-Jia Luo
Summary: This study evaluates the skill of the NUIST-CFS1.0 model in predicting summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that the model can moderately predict the interannual variations of the rainbands and the links between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. However, there is large uncertainty in the forecasts and the magnitudes are underestimated. The downscaling experiments with the WRF model improve the predictions to some extent, but the skill is highly dependent on the global model forecast.
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Valentina Aquila, Colleen Baldwin, Nikita Mukherjee, Eric Hackert, Feng Li, Jelena Marshak, Andrea Molod, Steven Pawson
Summary: A contemporary seasonal forecasting system is used to study the effects of a volcanic sulfate injection into the stratosphere on seasonal forecasts. The study focuses on the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines and its impacts from July 1991 to February 1992. The results show that including Mt. Pinatubo in seasonal forecasts can improve the forecasts of global temperature and precipitation but may worsen the forecast of El Nino.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Chang-Kyun Park, Sangeun Lee, Hyuncheol Yoon, Jonghun Kam
Summary: This study investigates the meteorological drought caused by cumulative precipitation deficits in the southwestern Korean Peninsula since early spring 2022 and predicts the sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks of the drought using probabilistic and climate model-based forecasts. The results show that both springtime and summertime precipitation deficits in 2022 contribute equally to the ongoing drought, with the six-month accumulated precipitation deficit being a key driver. At least 80, 150, and 210 mm of precipitation are required for recovery in March, April, and May 2023, respectively.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Juliana de Sousa Santos, Jose Francisco de Oliveira-Junior, Micejane da Silva Costa, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, Munawar Shah, Rasim Shahzad, Luis Felipe Francisco Ferreira da Silva, William Max de Oliveira Romao, Sudhir Kumar Singh, David Mendes, Iwldson Guilherme da Silva Santos, Rosiberto Salustiano da Silva Junior
Summary: This study evaluated the effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in the Northeast of Brazil. The results showed significant interannual variability in rainfall due to El Nino and La Nina phases, and the influence of physiography and meteorological systems on rainfall distribution.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Tim N. Stockdale, Michael Mayer, S. Sharmila, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves
Summary: This study explores the temporal changes of predictability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a modern forecasting system. The results reveal distinct periods of enhanced and reduced predictability, primarily driven by multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Elizaveta Felsche, Andrea Boehnisch, Ralf Ludwig
Summary: This study uses hierarchical agglomerative clustering to derive nine dominating spatial heatwave patterns from a 50-member regional climate model. The heatwave patterns correspond well with clusters derived from an observational dataset and with extreme historical heatwave events. Moreover, the occurrence of heatwaves in the identified spatial patterns is analyzed regarding soil moisture deficit before and after the event. Negative soil moisture anomalies in the preceding winter/spring can serve as a predictor for heatwaves in South Europe. For North Europe, there is a negative correlation between the number of heatwave days in summer and autumn and soil moisture content.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Yang Jiao
Summary: The upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB) plays a crucial role in the freshwater supply of the Yellow River. Research shows that while there will be continuous wetting and vegetation greening in the UYRB in a future with warmer temperatures, the impact on hydrological drought changes remains uncertain due to interactions between climate change, land cover change, and reservoir operations. A study using the CSSPv2 + Reservoir model reveals that increased precipitation during dry seasons can reduce the duration of hydrological droughts at different warming levels, but the severity of droughts is limited. However, a significant increase in leaf area index under higher warming levels intensifies evapotranspiration and exacerbates drought severity. Furthermore, reservoir operations aimed at stable hydropower generation can decrease drought duration but increase drought frequency and severity, highlighting the need for a balance between hydropower generation and drought mitigation in future reservoir operations.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jiefeng Wu, Huaxia Yao, Guoqing Wang, Xiaohong Chen, Xing Yuan, Yuliang Zhou, Dejian Zhang
Summary: Droughts have an impact on the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and the dynamics of DOC concentration and flux during different stages of hydrological drought (HD) are complex and not well understood. This study used long-term data on DOC concentration and streamflow from four headwater streams in Harp Lake catchment, Ontario, Canada to examine the effects of HD on DOC dynamics. The study also investigated the potential mechanisms underlying the patterns in DOC.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Chunxiang Shi, Lipeng Jiang, Guoqing Wang, Kun Yang
Summary: By conducting simulations with a resolution of 6 kilometers over China, it is found that high-resolution land surface modeling has lower simulation errors for snow depth, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture compared to global products. It can also accurately simulate urban heat islands and long-term trends. This highlights the significant added value of high-resolution land surface modeling at continental scales.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Enda Zhu, Yaqiang Wang, Xing Yuan
Summary: A reliable estimation of long-term change in terrestrial water storage (TWS) is critical for managing freshwater resources. In this study, a hybrid model combining land surface model simulation, human activities, and land properties with machine learning is developed to analyze TWS anomalies (TWSA). The model is applied to reconstruct historical TWSA in China from 1981 to 2020, showing reliable results and consistent patterns with independent datasets. Climate variation affects TWSA in humid regions, while human interventions dominate TWSA decline in arid and semi-arid areas. The potential of using artificial intelligence to represent human interventions is highlighted.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Qing Cao, Xing Yuan, Qingyun Yan, Feilin Zhu
Summary: The decadal changes of rainfall erosivity (RERS) in different sub-regions of mainland China are investigated. RERS in the Yangtze River basin and the source of three rivers experienced a decadal change around 2003, while RERS in northeastern and northern China showed a prominent increasing trend after 2008. The changes in RERS are closely related to variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and particular atmospheric circulation.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Xinyue Liu, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, Jun Xia
Summary: To achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development goals, the transition to renewable energy is occurring in the energy system, with hydropower being a significant form. However, hydropower is vulnerable to climate anomalies, such as droughts, resulting in energy droughts. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of energy droughts over the Yangtze River basin and finds that there are about 10 energy droughts per year during 2007-2021, with a mean duration of 7 days/event and a 26% reduction in daily developed hydropower potential (DHP). The occurrence of energy droughts is influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the propagation from meteorological droughts to energy droughts takes several days.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ruxuan Ma, Xing Yuan
Summary: Flash droughts have become a frequent occurrence worldwide, impacting food and water security. This study investigates the forecast skill of flash droughts in China using hindcast data from the ECMWF and NCEP forecast models. The models show a slight underestimation of flash drought occurrence, but the ensemble of the two models improves the forecast accuracy. The study highlights the importance of using a multimodel ensemble for flash drought forecasting.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, Jason A. Otkin
Summary: Flash droughts have become increasingly common worldwide, posing challenges to drought monitoring and prediction. The intensification of droughts has accelerated over subseasonal time scales, leading to a transition towards more flash droughts in 74% of global regions over the past 64 years. This transition is linked to amplified anomalies in evapotranspiration and precipitation deficit due to human-induced climate change. In the future, this transition is expected to expand to most land areas, with greater increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings highlight the urgency of adapting to faster-onset droughts in a warmer future.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiazhen Xi, Xing Yuan
Summary: This study used MODIS data to investigate the impact of soil and atmospheric moisture deficits on carbon and water use in the ecosystem during flash droughts and high temperature conditions in eastern China. The results showed that soil moisture stress had a greater influence on vegetation productivity in humid regions. However, high vapor pressure deficit significantly affected the light use efficiency of vegetation in 55% of the regions.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Jiayuan Li, Xing Yuan
Summary: Medium-range streamflow forecasts are largely dependent on accurate meteorological forecasts, but due to errors in precipitation forecasts, most streamflow forecasts only rely on historical data. In this study, a cascade LSTM model is used to forecast daily streamflow over 49 watersheds in the Yangtze River basin up to 15 days. The results show that the cascade LSTM model provides skillful streamflow forecasts, with the performance improving with increasing drainage area. The implementation of the cascade LSTM model leads to increased streamflow Kling-Gupta efficiency in 61-88% of the watersheds, especially at longer lead times.
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Abubaker Omer, Xing Yuan, Alexandra Gemitzi
Summary: Landscape transitions in the Nile River basin will likely accelerate due to socioeconomic developments and climate change, leading to significant changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and their impact on water resources. Using geospatial-hydrological models, this study projected future LULC changes in the Nile basin and its tributaries, identifying drivers and projected hydrological impacts under different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results show increased forested areas in the upstream regions, reducing downstream river discharge, while unused land in the Atbara River sub-catchment is expected to decrease, resulting in a decrease in river flow during the rainy season. These findings emphasize the need for adaptive LULC planning and conservation measures in the Nile basin.
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Miaoling Liang, Xing Yuan, Shiyu Zhou, Zhanshan Ma
Summary: In this study, a three-dimensional meteorological flash drought index based on the percentile of 15-day moving average precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) is developed to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of a mega-flash drought in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the index can effectively capture the drought's evolution, and the nowcast of the P-ET index by the China Meteorological Administration global medium-range ensemble forecast system (CMA-GFS) roughly captures the drought's evolution. This study demonstrates the potential of using the index and nowcast for flash drought early warnings and water resource management.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Miaoling Liang, Xing Yuan, Wenyan Wang
Summary: The GRAPES_GFS is a new generation numerical weather forecast model developed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), but it has biases in the forecasts of surface latent heat fluxes and surface air temperature. These biases affect the forecasts of atmospheric dynamics and the application of GRAPES_GFS. Various modifications, such as adding a soil resistance term and considering the effect of salinity, have been made to reduce these biases and improve the performance of GRAPES_GFS. This paper highlights the importance of the representations of land/ocean surface and boundary layer processes in forecasting surface heat fluxes and 2 m air temperature.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yuxin Li, Sisi Chen, Jun Yin, Xing Yuan
Summary: The rapid development of flash droughts can have serious impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and society. However, the current definition of flash droughts using pentad-averaged soil moisture may lead to low accuracy in assessing their occurrence and hinder the analysis of factors influencing their formation. In this study, we used a stochastic water balance framework to quantify the probability structure of soil moisture declining rapidly from a higher level to a lower one. By applying this framework to global datasets, we obtained global maps of drought development time and flash drought risks.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yumiao Wang, Xing Yuan
Summary: The Yangtze River Basin experienced a severe flash drought in the summer of 2022, with precipitation deficit being the main trigger and high temperature intensifying the drought conditions.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)