Risk Stratification for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia According to Fecal Hemoglobin Concentration in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The latest generation of fecal immunochemical tests (FIT) allows for quantitation of hemoglobin in feces, allowing for selection of optimal cut-off concentrations. We investigated whether individuals with positive results from quantitative FITs, in combination with other factors, could be identified as being at greatest risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia. METHODS: In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from a consecutive series of 3109 participants with positive results from FITs (>= 20 mu g/g of feces) included in the first round of the Barcelona colorectal cancer screening program, from December 2009 through February 2012. All participants underwent colonoscopy and were assigned to groups with any advanced colorectal neoplasia or with nonadvanced colorectal neoplasia (but with another diagnosis or normal examination findings). RESULTS: Median fecal hemoglobin concentrations were significantly higher in participants with advanced colorectal neoplasia (105 mu g/g; interquartile range, 38-288 mu g/g) compared with participants with nonadvanced colorectal neoplasia (47 mu g/g; interquartile range, 23-119 mu g/g) (P < .001). Positive predictive values for advanced colorectal neoplasia, determined using arbitrary fecal hemoglobin concentrations, differed with sex and age. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified sex (men: odds ratio [OR], 2.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.41), age (60-69 y: OR, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.44), and fecal hemoglobin concentration (>177 mu g/g: OR, 3.80; 95% confidence interval, 3.07-4.71) as independent predictive factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia. Combining these factors, we identified 16 risk categories associated with different probabilities of identifying advanced colorectal neoplasia. Risk for advanced colorectal neoplasia increased 11.46-fold among individuals in the highest category compared with the lowest category; positive predictive values ranged from 21.3% to 75.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Fecal hemoglobin concentration, in addition to sex and age, in individuals with positive results from FITs can be used to stratify probability for the detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia. These factors should be used to prioritize individuals for colonoscopy examination.