期刊
FUTURE ONCOLOGY
卷 10, 期 16, 页码 2561-2568出版社
FUTURE MEDICINE LTD
DOI: 10.2217/fon.14.192
关键词
endometrial cancer; future projections; incidence; obesity; prevention
类别
Aim: As the incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) increased considerably since 2007, this study aimed to project the burden of EC to the year 2030. Methods: Multivariate linear regression was used to project EC incidence by modeling trends in EC incidence from 1990 to 2013, while accounting for temporal changes in obesity, hysterectomy and smoking. Results: The best-fitting model predicting EC rates included a time effect plus effects for hysterectomy (12-year lag), severe obesity (3-year lag) and smoking (9-year lag). The best-fitting model projected an increase to 42.13 EC cases per 100,000 by the year 2030, a 55% increase over 2010 EC rates. Conclusion: The projected increase of EC over next 16 years indicates the need for close monitoring of EC trends.
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