期刊
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
卷 12, 期 107, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0235
关键词
complex systems; time series; population dynamics; growth rate statistics; stochastic processes; nonlinear dynamics
资金
- U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA09NMF4630406]
The abundance of a species' population in an ecosystem is rarely stationary, often exhibiting large fluctuations over time. Using historical data on marine species, we show that the year-to-year fluctuations of population growth rate obey a well-defined double-exponential (Laplace) distribution. This striking regularity allows us to devise a stochastic model despite seemingly irregular variations in population abundances. The model identifies the effect of reduced growth at low population density as a key factor missed in current approaches of population variability analysis and without which extinction risks are severely underestimated. The model also allows us to separate the effect of demographic stochasticity and show that single-species growth rates are dominantly determined by stochasticity common to all species. This dominance-and the implications it has for interspecies correlations, including co-extinctions-emphasizes the need for ecosystem-level management approaches to reduce the extinction risk of the individual species themselves.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据