Analysis of the long-term dynamics of moisture balance components in typical chernozems of the reserved steppe area in Kursk region

The long-term dynamics (1947-2006) of parameters characterizing the income and expenditure components of moisture balance in deep (3 m) chernozems of the reserved steppe area subject to annual hay cutting have been analyzed by methods of moving averages and resolution of data sets into time series. The results provide evidence for the cyclic patterns of these dynamics and their dependence on changes in weather conditions over the past few decades, referred to as recent climate warming. An increase is noted in the occurrence frequency of long time series (about 7 years) with parameters of soil moisture balance deviating (either positively or negatively) from long-term average values, during which changes in soil properties (in particular, carbonate status) may well leave their mark in the soil profile. The long-term dynamics of individual components of soil moisture balance have a specific pattern accounted for by the mutual influence of these components on each other as well as by the combined effect of changing environmental factors. An analysis of the moving-average curves of these components has revealed the tendency indicating that the period of increased moisture supply to chernozem soils (characteristic of the past few decades) is coming to an end.