Article
Engineering, Aerospace
Vladislav T. Todorov, Dmitry Rakov, Andreas Bardenhagen
Summary: Disruptive technologies and novel aircraft generations are seen as potential solutions to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals in aviation. However, the introduction of innovative concepts can be time-consuming and may not produce the optimal design within the given timeframe. To overcome this, the Advanced Morphological Approach (AMA) was introduced, which involves decomposing design problems, evaluating alternatives, and projecting solutions onto a solution space. This paper focuses on integrating structured expert judgment elicitation (SEJE) techniques into conceptual aircraft design with AMA, and applies it to wing morphing architecture.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Daniel T. Myers, Darren L. Ficklin, Scott M. Robeson
Summary: Rain-on-snow (ROS) melt events decrease water storage in the snowpack and exacerbate flooding. This study used a hydrologic model to simulate changes in ROS events in the North American Great Lakes Basin from 1960-2069. The results show a reduction in melt in warmer, southern subbasins and a smaller reduction in colder, northern subbasins, while rainfall reduces snowpack formation. This research is important for managing freshwater ecosystems and human uses in regions sensitive to ROS events.
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yeowool Choi, Chunyan Hao, Paul A. Helm, Satyendra P. Bhavsar, Sang Don Kim
Summary: This study analyzed the concentration and distribution of organophosphate esters (OPEs) in fish samples collected from fishing spots in the North American Great Lakes and nearshore fish samples from the Toronto and Hamilton areas in Canada. The results showed that these chemicals can be ingested by humans through the consumption of fish, but the exposure levels are relatively low compared to exposures through indoor air and dust inhalation.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Jin Xiang, Hui Li, Jiayang Zhao, Xiaobin Cai, Peng Li
Summary: Satellite laser altimetry, including ICESat-2, ICESat-1, and GEDI, was compared for inland water level retrievals over the Great Lakes and the lower Mississippi River. ICESat-2 showed the highest accuracy in lake and river water level retrievals, indicating its potential for inland water dynamics monitoring.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Gregory W. Whitledge, Duane C. Chapman, John R. Farver, Seth J. Herbst, Nicholas E. Mandrak, Jeffrey G. Miner, Kevin L. Pangle, Patrick M. Kocovsky
Summary: The study found a mixture of wild and aquaculture-origin grass carp in the Great Lakes, with most likely originating from the Sandusky and Maumee rivers in the Lake Erie basin and possible recruitment from other tributaries. Multiple age classes of wild grass carp were observed in the Lake Erie basin, indicating recruitment to adulthood and introductions of aquaculture-origin fish over multiple years.
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Mark R. DuFour, Kelly F. Robinson, Michael L. Jones, Seth J. Herbst
Summary: Managers and researchers have identified a reproducing population of grass carp in the western basin of Lake Erie, leading to concerns about potential threat to ecosystem function in the Great Lakes Basin. Experts and decision makers are conducting structured decision making exercises to collaboratively address the threat and identify potential response actions. They have developed a spatially explicit population model to evaluate various management response actions.
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Karel D. Riegel, Lucia Schlosserova, Victor Blueml, Laura Waschulin, Livia Rosova
Summary: This study verifies the reliability and validity of personality psychopathology assessment in master's students of Addictology using the Structured Interview of Personality Organization (STIPO) scoring course. The results show a high degree of inter-rater reliability and a satisfactory level of validity in the STIPO assessments. The STIPO is considered a useful tool for facilitating communication of personality psychopathology in multidisciplinary addictology teams.
Article
Fisheries
Eric R. B. Smyth, D. Andrew R. Drake
Summary: Understanding the role of propagule pressure and environmental factors is crucial for managing the establishment of invasive fish species. This study found that both factors can act as non-linear bottlenecks to establishment and that the success of establishment is dependent on the abundance of propagules and environmental conditions.
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Fisheries
Jason L. Fischer, Lucas R. Nathan, John Buszkiewicz, Julia Colm, D. Andrew R. Drake, Mark R. DuFour, Patrick M. Kocovsky, David Marson, Eric R. B. Smyth, Ryan Young, Kelly F. Robinson
Summary: Sampling method decisions are critical for monitoring and managing fisheries, especially when responding to invasive species. A study comparing boat electrofishing and a combination method for sampling Grass Carp found that the combination method had higher detection probabilities for surrogate taxa, suggesting it may be more effective for Grass Carp removal.
NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Education & Educational Research
Shannon Orr
Summary: The issue of Asian carp introduces the challenges of managing diverse stakeholders with different perspectives in public policy-making, posing a threat to the billion-dollar fishing industry. This case study provides an analytical framework for understanding stakeholder interests and highlights the complexities involved in addressing policy issues with multiple stakeholders.
CASE STUDIES IN THE ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Felicity J. Ni, Ariola Visha, Satyendra P. Bhavsar, Carlos Arnillas Alberto, George B. Arhonditsis
Summary: This study analyzed the spatio-temporal trends of fish contamination in the Canadian Great Lakes and formulated consumption advisories that account for uncertainties. It found that PCBs continue to result in restrictive advisories, while Hg concentrations are generally at a safer level. Reduction in PCB levels over the next twenty years is needed to comply with TDI thresholds.
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Carolyn Johns, Debora VanNijnatten
Summary: The paper explores the application of governance indicators in assessing water governance systems, highlighting the challenges of applying these indicators in transboundary water systems. It also reflects on how governance indicators connected to comparative and contextual analysis may improve integration of scholarship and practice.
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Jorge A. Garcia-Hernandez, Roy Brouwer
Summary: This study introduces a water-restricted input-output model to assess the economic impacts of water supply reductions in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin. The model incorporates a flexible economic optimization procedure and accounts for inter-regional trade between different lake regions. The research investigates the impacts of climate change on water security and the economy with and without additional food and energy security restrictions.
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Ecology
Christine M. Custer, Thomas W. Custer, Paul M. Dummer
Summary: The study used tree swallows to assess the effectiveness of reducing PCB exposure to wildlife following sediment removal at locations across the Great Lakes. The accumulation rate of PCBs in tree swallow eggs and nestling carcasses was found to be a useful tool for assessing the effectiveness of sediment removal, showing significant decreases post-dredging.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, E. Brooks-Pollock, R. M. Cooke, L. Danon, J. Barclay, J. H. Scarrow, J. Cox
Summary: After primary schools in the UK partially reopened with social distancing measures in place, a structured expert elicitation study found that the mean number of daily contacts significantly decreased for students and staff, indicating successful reduction in infection risk through new risk mitigation strategies.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Roger M. Cooke, Harry Joe, Bo Chang
Summary: Regular vines copulas and saturated continuous nonparametric Bayes nets (CNPBN) are methods used for constructing high dimensional joint densities. Vine regression can address complex issues such as model fitting, transformations, heteroscedasticity, etc. By applying vine regression, the impact of breastfeeding on IQ can be calculated, taking into account various factors such as IQ levels and duration of breastfeeding.
Letter
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Ian Lawson, Roger Cooke
OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE-OXFORD
(2021)
Article
Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems
Joseph B. Shrager, Yoyo Wang, Myung Lee, Shannon Nesbit, Winston Trope, Harrison Konsker, Emmanuel Fatodu, Mark S. Berry, George Poulstides, Jeffrey Norton, Thomas Burdon, Leah Backhus, Roger Cooke, Huibin Tang
Summary: The clinical trial is the first-in-human mechanistic trial for preventing ventilator-induced diaphragm dysfunction (VIDD) by testing whether JAK inhibition can prevent clinical VIDD, potentially impacting ICU outcomes significantly if successful.
RESPIRATORY MEDICINE
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
W. P. Aspinall, R. S. J. Sparks, M. J. Woodhouse, R. M. Cooke, J. H. Scarrow
Summary: Drawing on risk methods from volcano crises, a rapid COVID-19 infection model was developed for the partial return and full return of pupils to primary schools in England. The model handles uncertainties in key parameters, evaluating infection levels based on COVID-19 prevalence and projected pupil numbers. The study found that the projected number of infected schools varied with changes in prevalence rates.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2021)
Review
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Roger Cooke, Ian Lawson, Susanna Gillibrand, Andrew Cooke
Summary: It is recommended to formally exclude CTS before attributing symptoms to HAVS in vibration-exposed individuals who report concurrent RP and separate sensory symptoms suggestive of, or compatible with CTS.
OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE-OXFORD
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Kyle J. Colonna, Petros Koutrakis, Patrick L. Kinney, Roger M. Cooke, John S. Evans
Summary: Long-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM2.5) is associated with mortality, although the extrapolation of results to understudied locations may involve uncertainty. Causation is supported, and the composition of PM2.5 and population characteristics can alter the effect.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
(2022)
Editorial Material
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Roger Anthony Cooke, Ian James Lawson
OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE-OXFORD
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kevin Rennert, Frank Errickson, Brian C. Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G. Newell, William Pizer, Cora Kingdon, Jordan Wingenroth, Roger Cooke, Bryan Parthum, David Smith, Kevin Cromar, Delavane Diaz, Frances C. Moore, Ulrich K. Muller, Richard J. Plevin, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Sevcikova, Hannah Sheets, James H. Stock, Tammy Tan, Mark Watson, Tony E. Wong, David Anthoff
Summary: This study shows that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods can significantly increase the estimates of the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2). The study's estimates are higher than the current values used in policy evaluation, thereby increasing the expected benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation.
Article
Environmental Sciences
J. L. Bamber, M. Oppenheimer, R. E. Kopp, W. P. Aspinall, Roger M. Cooke
Summary: The ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland have significant uncertainties and potential contributions to future sea level rise. The dominant sources of uncertainty in 21st-century projections are surface melting in Greenland and ice dynamics in West Antarctica. In the 22nd century, the dominant drivers of uncertainty shift to ice dynamics in East Antarctica. These findings highlight the key processes and factors that need to be addressed to reduce uncertainties in ice sheet projections.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kyle J. Colonna, Gabriela F. Nane, Ernani F. Choma, Roger M. Cooke, John S. Evans
Summary: This study evaluates the predictive and probabilistic performance of COVID-19 forecasting models in 2021. Results show that predictive performance and probabilistic performance are not necessarily correlated, and most models perform worse than a baseline model. The CDC and CM ensembles both perform well, but the CM ensemble is more statistically accurate.
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
(2022)
Meeting Abstract
Biophysics
Clyde F. Wilson, Nariman I. Naber, Roger Cooke
BIOPHYSICAL JOURNAL
(2022)
Article
Economics
Kevin Rennert, Brian C. Prest, William A. Pizer, Richard G. Newell, David Anthoff, Cora Kingdon, Lisa Rennels, Roger Cooke, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Sevcikova, Frank Errickson
Summary: The social cost of carbon is a crucial metric for climate policy, requiring consideration of uncertainty and transparency of assumptions. Challenges in estimation push the boundaries of analytical techniques, necessitating augmented approaches to assess uncertainty and discounting.
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(2021)
Article
Immunology
Elizabeth Beshearse, Beau B. Bruce, Gabriela F. Nane, Roger M. Cooke, Willy Aspinall, Tine Hald, Stacy M. Crim, Patricia M. Griffin, Kathleen E. Fullerton, Sarah A. Collier, Katharine M. Benedict, Michael J. Beach, Aron J. Hall, Arie H. Havelaar
Summary: Despite advancements in food safety, water treatment, and sanitation, food and waterborne illnesses continue to be a major disease burden in the United States. Experts utilized Cooke's classical model to estimate the proportion of disease attributable to various transmission pathways, emphasizing the importance of multiple pathways in the transmission of pathogens.
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
(2021)
Article
Economics
Roger M. Cooke, Deniz Marti, Thomas Mazzuchi
Summary: Post-2006 expert judgment data have been extended to include 530 experts assessing 580 calibration variables from their fields. New analysis shows that point predictions as medians of combined expert distributions outperform combined medians, and medians of performance weighted combinations outperform medians of equally weighted combinations, resulting in a 65% improvement. The Random Expert Hypothesis underlying all performance-blind combination schemes is tested by randomly scrambling expert panels, rejecting the hypothesis that differences in expert performance reflect random stressors.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2021)