Quantitative Risk Model for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Photoinduced Toxicity in Pacific Herring Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Phototoxicity occurs when exposure to ultraviolet radiation increases the toxicity of certain contaminants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This study aimed to (1) develop a quantitative model to predict the risk of PAH phototoxicity to fish, (2) assess the predictive value of the model, and (3) estimate the risk of PAH phototoxicity to larval and young of year Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The model, in which median lethal times (LT50 values) are estimated from whole-body phototoxic PAH concentrations and ultraviolet A (UVA) exposure, was constructed from previously reported PAH phototoxicity data. The predictive value of this model was confirmed by the overlap of model-predicted and experimentally derived LT50 values. The model, along with UVA characterization data, was used to generate estimates for depths of de minimiz risk for PAH phototoxicity in young herring in 2003/2004 and immediately following the 1989 EVOS, assuming average and worst case conditions. Depths of de minimiz risk were estimated to be between 0 and 2 m deep when worst case UVA and PAH conditions were considered. A post hoc assessment determined that <1% of the young herring population would have been present at depths associated with significant risk of PAH phototoxicity in 2003/2004 and 1989.